Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EST Sun Nov 03 2024
Areas affected...northern TX into southern OK
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 030929Z - 031500Z
Summary...An axis of training heavy rain is expected to impact
portions of northern TX into southern OK through 15Z with rainfall
rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4+ inches are
expected through 15Z along with possible flash flooding.
Discussion...Looping regional radar imagery through 09Z showed a
QLCS progressing eastward across OK at roughly 40-50 kt but the
southwestern flank of this convective line has largely stalled
across northwestern TX, between US 180 and US 380 to the north of
Abilene. Area VAD winds at 850 mb showed 40-45 kt from the south
across central to western TX, overrunning the rain-cooled airmass
where 1000 to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE was present along and south of the
outflow boundary (per 09Z SPC mesoanalysis). In addition to the
low level forcing in place, flow aloft was diffluent and
divergent, within the left exit region of a RAP-estimated 110-120
kt upper level jet max crossing Big Bend NP.
Despite the typical diurnal cycle favoring weakening of the low
level jet through 15Z, RAP forecasts suggest only slight weakening
of the 850 mb winds (into the 30-40 kt range) as a shortwave
trough axis over the southern AZ/NM border translates eastward
this morning. However, infrared cloud tops have been warming
across northwestern TX over the past hour, perhaps due to a
combination of the intrusion of dry air aloft as seen on Layered
PW imagery and weakening moisture flux.
Despite the recent weakening, a flash flood threat will remain
across the Red River Valley over the next few hours as areas of
training will likely persist into the mid-morning hours with storm
motions parallel to the low level axis of forcing. The threat for
training and 1 to 2+ in/hr rates is expected to shift ENE across
the Red River into portions of southern OK through 15Z along with
additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher).
Flash flooding will continue to be possible over the next few
hours with an expected weakening of rainfall intensity and
training potential toward the end of the MPD valid time (13-15Z).
Otto
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 35269523 35099451 34269451 33389623 32939780
32710002 33489970 34339837 34829718 35079643
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