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MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTING AN HPC METHODOLOGY MICHAEL SCHICHTEL NWS/NCEP/HPC CAMP SPRINGS, MARYLAND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
WE ARE OPERATIONAL FORECASTERS CO-LOCATED WITH COMPUTER MODELERS
HPC’S MEDIUM RANGE DESK
12 STEP METHODOLOGY OUTLINE
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MAJOR 1998-2000 MRF CHANGES
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THE MAIN REASONS WHY MODELS HAVE FORECAST PROBLEMS
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DISCLAIMER!!! THE PAST SLIDES HAVE DEPICTED BACKGROUND INFORMATION NEEDED FOR MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTING. YOU MUST DO YOUR HOMEWORK BEFORE TRYING TO MAKE A FORECAST.
MEDIUM RANGE SATELLITE IMAGERY?
DAY 3 MRF/UKMET VS ECMWF/NOGAPS
THE CANADIAN MODEL AT WWW.CMC.EC.GC.CA
MRF/ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS 500 MB DAY 4
MRF VS ECMWF DAY 4 PMSL FORECASTS
OPERATIONAL MRF 108-132 HOUR QPF
DO TODAY’S MODEL FORECASTS HAVE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY?
ENSEMBLE FORECASTING
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THE MRF 250MB 60HR JET FORECAST SUGGESTS MRF 500MB PLAINS SHORTWAVE DIGGING IS UNDERDONE
MRF AND ECMWF 500 MB VS ETA AND NGM 500 MB
BIG CHANGES: 00 UTC MRF VS 12 UTC AVN
VERIFICATION SECTION: 72 HR MRF 500 MB FORECAST VS OBSERVED
120HR ECMWF 500MB HEIGHTS VS OBS
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EXAMPLE OF MRF 5-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHT FORECAST
CONSIDER THE CLIMATIC PATTERN TO IDENTIFY PREFERRED STORM TRACKS
EXAMPLES OF ENSEMBLES
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EXAMPLE OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES
EXAMPLE OF THE 12 UTC AVN-EXT
% OF MOS DAY 6 MIN TEMP ERRORS 10F+
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CONCLUSIONS
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Author: Mike Schichtel
Email: mschichtel@ncep.noaa.gov
Home Page: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/res2.html
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