NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: September 27, 2010

 

This meeting was led by David Novak (HPC) and attended by Geoff DiMego (EMC); John Ward (EMC); Bill Lapenta (EMC); Chad Carry (EMC); Mary Hart (EMC); Becky Cosgrove (NCO); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET); Stephen Jascourt (UCAR/COMET); Mike Brennan (NHC); Richard Pasch (NHC); Keith Brill (HPC); Joe Sienkiewicz (OPC); Bill Ward (PR); Pete Browning (CR); Bernard Meisner (SR); Jeff Waldstreicher (ER), and Brian Miretzky (ER);

 

1. NCO (Chris Caruso Magee)

 

 

RTMA

2.5 km RTMA CONUS implemented September 28. This RTMA is run separate from the 5 km RTMA.

 

RTMA-Guam and the grid shift in the RTMA-Hawaii were implemented September 29.

 

Hurricane Wave Model.

The NCO parallel evaluation is underway.

 

NAEFS-AK

The NCO parallel for downscaling NAEFS sensible weather elements for Alaska is scheduled to begin Oct 5, for a planned implementation of November 30th.

 

Gridded LAMP

A NCO parallel for Gridded LAMP ceiling and visibility products started September 28.

 

Air Quality

Changes to the Air Quality Model were successfully implemented into production on Sep. 21.  The CONUS AQM is still running in both prod (old chemistry) and parallel (new chemistry).  No changes were planned or implemented for the AQM CONUS.

 

For the latest schedule updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

 

 

 

2. NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward)

 

Climate Forecast System v2.0

A major upgrade to the Climate Forecast System (CFS v2.0) is expected January 18^th, 2011. The upgrade includes resolution changes, assimilation changes, atmospheric and ocean model changes, addition of sea-ice and land modeling, coupling, and other significant changes.

 

NAEFS

Addition of the FNMOC ensemble is scheduled for January 11^th, 2011.

 

GSI

Updates to the datatypes are expected to be made in February 2011.

 

HWRF

Upgrade scheduled for May 2011.

 

GEFS

Resolution improvements and physics changes are expected in the June 2011 timeframe. Resolution increases from T190L28 to T254L42. The physics will be updated to be consistent with the current operational GFS.

 

GFS

A resolution increase and possible physics improvements are expected in FY12.

 

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego)

 

RTMA

In addition to the RTMA implementations noted in section 1, a 6^th RTMA domain covering the Canadian regions of the NWRFC domain is expected to be added in FY11. This implementation will update/unify the 2DVAR analysis code used in all 6 regions, add the use of hurricane model winds as first-guess for RTMA and update the QC station lists submitted by/gathered from the regions.

 

High Resolution Window Runs

A major upgrade to the High Resolution Window Runs is planned for March 2011.  Plans include upgrading the WRF code version (from v2.2 to v3.2) and adding a twice-per-day (00z & 12z) run to cover Guam (which would use GFS initial and boundary conditions). The newer WRF versions for both NMM and ARW use a more conservative advection scheme for the passive variables (e.g. water vapor, hydrometeor fields, turbulent kinetic energy) which has the effect of reducing QPF bias. Pacific region has authorized the new run over Guam to replace the current RSM run over Hawaii.  It will also provide a much improved first guess for the Guam RTMA.  Additionally, the Puerto Rico domain will be expanded to cover Hispaniola to provide QPF guidance for the NOAA/IA supported Hydrologic Research Center (San Diego, CA)’s flash flood support program for Haiti.

 

NAM

The upcoming Q3FY2011 major implementation will transition the WRF-based NMM to a NEMS-based NMM-B.  NEMS = NOAA Environmental Modeling System which is, in turn, based on the basic principles of ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework).  NMMB = Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on a B-Grid where multiscale comes from the fact the NMMB can be run globally or regionally and, with telescoping nests, it can run with synoptic scale, mesoscale to stormscale grid-spacing. This transition allows the long-awaited establishment of multiple internal nests: 4 km over CONUS, 6 km over Alaska, 3 km over Hawaii and 3 km over Puerto Rico/Hispaniola; while the North American parent domain remains at 12 km. An internal EMC parallel has been running for several months with the four nests.  Reinstatement of the Fire Weather / IMET Support run will be accomplished by running a single FWIS nest either within the CONUS domain at 1.33 km or within the Alaska domain at 1.2 km.  The parent 12 km will run out to 84 hours and will populate all existing NAM guidance products.  The 4 child nests will run to 60 hours and distribution is TBD, but one idea is for their output to replace the existing NAM DNG.  Finally, the FWIS runs will extend to 36 hrs with data expected to be distributed via Fx-Net.  Full complements of output will be available on NOMADS and anonymous ftp servers in Silver Spring, MD. 

 

 

SREF

A major upgrade to SREF is planned now for FY11Q4 which eliminates the members based on the legacy Eta and RSM models and adds members based on the NEMS-NMMB.  Membership will remain at 21 by having 7 members generated each by NMMB, WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM. This upgrade would also increase resolution from 32-25km to 22-25 km, add a BUFR output, and may transition to an ensemble perturbation approach.  The WRF Development Testbed Center (DTC) is helping evaluate different initial perturbation possibilities. The Eta and RSM models will be discontinued, pending all dependencies on Eta and RSM models can be removed.

 

Also exploring the hybrid ensemble approach of Jun (2004) (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/hybrid_50thNWP.pdf) applied to the high-res window runs. This involves adding the forecast perturbations from the 21 SREF members to the Hi-res window NMM and ARW forecasts.

 

Very Short Range Ensemble Forecast (VSREF)

MMB is working on VSREF (http://ams.confex.com/ams/90annual/techprogram/paper_162463.htm). It is a time-lagged, weighted ensemble of NAM and RUC forecasts, which makes 12 hour guidance updated every hour. Initial efforts have focused on supporting aviation.  This will be implemented with either Rapid Refresh or SREF which ever comes first.

 

Rapid Refresh

MMB is working with GSD on implementation details of the Rapid Refresh. The Rapid Refresh will replace the RUC and remain an hourly updated system with 13 km resolution run to 18 hours. The prediction model will change from RUC to WRF-ARW, the analysis will change from RUC/3DVAR to NCEP’s GSI (same as is used in GFS/GDAS and NAM/NDAS) and the domain will increase to cover most of North America.  Implementation is tentatively planned for Q3 of FY11.

 

 

2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (No report)

 

3. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS

3a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert)

-Fiscal year implementations have been submitted to NCO.

 

 

3b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions

 

EMC – The annual NCEP Model Suite Review will be held Dec 7-9 at the WWB.

 

HPC – Asked NCO for operational GEMPAK conversion for the Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA).

 

ER – Working on getting the Gridded LAMP ceiling and visibility products in AWIPS.

 

 

4. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, October 25, 2010 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.