IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2025/041: Sandcastles and Financial Systems: A Sandpile Metaphor

Francesco Luna and Luisa Zanforlin

2025/040: Europe’s Productivity Weakness: Firm-Level Roots and Remedies

Oyun Adilbish, Diego Cerdeiro, Romain Duval, Gee Hee Hong, Luca Mazzone, Lorenzo Rotunno, Hasan Toprak and Maryam Vaziri

2025/039: Transport Frictions and the Pass-Through of Global Price Shocks in a Spatial Model of Low-Income Countries

Lisa Martin, Christopher Adam and Douglas Gollin

2025/038: Strengthening Fiscal Frameworks in the Presence of Rising Risk of Natural Disasters

Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi, Jessie Kilembe and Do Yeon Park

2025/037: Climate News and Asset Valuations: Insights from Latin America

Muhsin Ciftci and Christina Kolerus

2025/036: Government Debt and Growth: The Role of R&D

Can Sever

2025/034: TLTRO Spillovers Outside the Euro Area

Carolina Lopez-Quiles and Adil Mohommad

2025/033: The HIPC Initiative and China’s Emergence as a Lender: post hoc or propter hoc?

Tito Cordella, Maia Cufre and Andrea Presbitero

2025/032: Social Security Reforms, Retirement and Sectoral Decisions

Bruno Delalibera, Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira and Rafael Machado Parente

2025/031: An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Forecasts: Any Evidence of Asymmetry?

Emrehan Aktuğ and Abolfazl Rezghi

2025/030: The Labor Market Decisions of Older Workers in Ageing Economies: Evidence from Spain and the UK

Rodrigo Barrela, Pragyan Deb, Gloria Li and Carlo Pizzinelli

2025/029: Firm Performance, Business Supports and Zombification over the Pandemic

Alexander Amundsen, Amélie Lafrance-Cooke and Danny Leung

2025/028: Carbon Pricing at Export Markets: Trade-Related Implications in Trinidad and Tobago

Ilya Stepanov, Diego Gutierrez and Camilo Tovar Mora

2025/027: Spillovers from Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?

Hany Abdel-Latif and Adina Popescu

2025/026: The Economic Costs of Temperature Uncertainty

Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Michael Ganslmeier and Marc Schiffbauer

2025/025: Inattentiveness and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy

Abolfazl Rezghi

2025/024: Long-Term Debt and Short-Term Rates: Fixed-Rate Mortgages and Monetary Transmission

Alessia De Stefani and Rui Mano

2025/023: Production Network Features of Industrial Policy

Vanya Georgieva

2025/022: Designing Expenditure Policy Conditionality in IMF-Supported Programs

Emine Hanedar and Zsuzsa Munkacsi

2025/021: Domestic Market Integration and Regional Growth: The Case of Mexico

Felipe Fonseca, Samir Jahan, Irving Llamosas‐Rosas, Tomohide Mineyama, Erick Rangel‐Gonzalez and Hugo Tuesta

2025/020: External Knowledge, R&D, and Innovation: Mapping the Market for Technology Across European Industries

Christoph Grimpe, Fuad Hasanov, Wolfgang Sofka, Geoffrey Borchardt and Philip Schulz

2025/019: A Debt Crisis with Strategic Investors: Changes in Demand and the Role of Market Power

Ricardo Alves Monteiro

2025/018: Competitiveness and Productivity in the Baltics: Common Shocks, Different Implications

Saioa Armendariz, Carlos de Resende, Alice Fan, Gianluigi Ferrucci, Bingjie Hu, Sadhna Naik and Can Ugur

2025/017: Strengthening Tax Governance Through Legal Design

Lydia Sofrona, Christophe Waerzeggers and Brendan Crowley

2025/016: Foreign Aid and Conflicts: The Effects of 9/11 on Donor Behavior

Rabah Arezki, Youssouf Camara, Patrick Imam and Kangni Kpodar

2025/015: Shocks and Shields: Macroeconomic Institutions During Commodity Price Swings

Rabah Arezki, Patrick Imam, Kangni Kpodar and Dao Le-Van

2025/014: State Capacity and Growth Regimes

Patrick Imam and Jonathan Temple

2025/013: The Macroeconomic and Welfare Benefits of Building Resilience in Disaster-Prone Developing Countries

Yehenew Endegnanew, Rafael Goncalves, Samuel Mann, Marina Mendes Tavares and Harold Zavarce

2025/012: Frayed Societies: Decoding the Interplay between Conflicts and Gender Inequality

Paola Ganum and Can Sever

2025/011: Portfolio Inertia and Expected Excess Returns in Currency Markets: Evidence from Advanced Economies

Bas Bakker

2025/010: Is Tax Policy Costly Industrial Policy in Mozambique?

Santos Bila, Utkarsh Kumar and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

2025/009: Understanding Agricultural Output in Mozambique: Using remote sensing to initiate a discussion on development

Kelsee Bratley and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

2025/008: Drivers and Effects of Residence and Citizenship by Investment

Sofronis Clerides, Maria Coelho, Alexander Klemm and Christos Kotsogiannis

2025/007: Shocked: Electricity Price Volatility Spillovers in Europe

Serhan Cevik and Yueshu Zhao

2025/006: Foreign Aid and (Big) Shocks: Evidence from Natural Disasters

Rabah Arezki, Youssouf Camara, Patrick Imam and Kangni Kpodar

2025/005: Immigration and Local Inflation

Philip Barrett and Brandon Tan

2025/004: The Macroeconomic Impact of Droughts in Uruguay: A General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Soil Moisture Deficit Index

Jean François Clevy and Christopher Evans

2025/003: Drivers of Inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Maria Atamanchuk, Alejandro Hajdenberg, Dalia Kadissi, Giulio Lisi and Nasir Rao

2025/002: The Scalability of Credit-Enhanced EM Climate Debt: What Role Can Guarantees, Collateralization, Securitizations, and Investment Funds Play?

Peter Lindner, Ananthakrishnan Prasad and Jean-Marie Masse

2025/001: Market Power in the Middle East

Yevgeniya Korniyenko, Ahmed Tohamy and Weining Xin

2024/264: Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index: A Generative AI Approach and An Application to Monetary Policy Transmission

Kaiji Chen and Yunhui Zhao

2024/263: Trade Policy and Jobs in Vietnam: The Unintended Consequences of US-China Trade Tensions

Lorenzo Rotunno, Sanchari Roy, Anri Sakakibara and Pierre-Louis Vézina

2024/262: Industrial Policy and State Ownership: How Do Commercial Banks Allocate Credit in China?

Ying Xu

2024/261: On Cross-Border Crypto Flows: Measurement Drivers and Policy Implications

Pamela Cardozo, Andrés Fernández, Jerzy Jiang and Felipe Rojas

2024/260: Monetary Policy and Inflation Scares

Christopher Erceg, Jesper Lindé and Mathias Trabandt

2024/259: Industrialization and the Big Push: Theory and Evidence from South Korea

Jaedo Choi and Younghun Shim

2024/258: Chasing the Dream: Industry-Level Productivity Developments in Europe

Serhan Cevik, Sadhna Naik and Keyra Primus

2024/257: A Confidence-Financial Inclusion Nexus in the Caucasus and Central Asia?

Kalin Tintchev and Kady Keita

2024/256: The Urgency of Conflict Prevention – A Macroeconomic Perspective

Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, Benjamin Seimon and Raphael Espinoza

2024/255: Size and Resilience of the Blue Economy in Pacific Island Economies

Fabien Gonguet and Junting Zhou

2024/254: G3MOD: A Multi-Country Global Forecasting Model

Iaroslav Miller, Daniel Baksa, Philippe Karam and Tugrul Vehbi

2024/253: The Dynamics of Trade Integration and Fragmentation in LAC

Rafael Machado Parente and Flavien Moreau

2024/252: Reconciling Random Walks and Predictability: A Dual- Component Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics

Bas Bakker

2024/251: Output Gap Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy Adjustment in Real-Time in Emerging Economies

Giacomo Cattelan and Boaz Nandwa

2024/250: A Bitter Aftertaste: How State Aid Affects Recipient Firms and Their Competitors in Europe

Luis Brandão-Marques and Hasan Toprak

2024/249: Industrial Policy in Europe: A Single Market Perspective

Andrew Hodge, Roberto Piazza, Fuad Hasanov, Xun Li, Maryam Vaziri, Atticus Weller and Yu Ching Wong

2024/248: The Heterogeneous Impacts of Firm Upgrading on Energy Intensity

Povilas Lastauskas, Ziran Ding and Mustapha Douch

2024/247: Effects of IMF-Supported Programs on Gender Inequality

Theo Eicher, Reina Kawai Eskimez and Monique Newiak

2024/246: Riding Unicorns: Startups and Venture Capital in Japan

Salih Fendoglu and TengTeng Xu

2024/245: The Role of Corporate Cash Holdings in the Transmission of Monetary Policy Tightening

JaeBin Ahn, Euihyun Bae and Jing Zhou

2024/244: Remittances in Times of Uncertainty: Understanding the Dynamics and Implications

Patrick Imam, Kangni Kpodar, Djoulassi Oloufade and Vigninou Gammadigbe

2024/243: Global Contagion of Financial Reforms

Nan Li, Chris Papageorgiou, Tong Xu and Tao Zha

2024/242: Bilateral Trade in Services and Exchange Rates: Evidence of Dominant Currency Pricing

Nan Li and Sergii Meleshchuk

2024/241: New Evidence on the US Excess Return on Foreign Portfolios

Carol C. Bertaut, Stephanie Curcuru, Ester Faia and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

2024/240: Implementing Risk-Based Solvency for Insurers—Lessons from Kenya, Mexico, and South Africa

Peter Windsor, Suzette Vogelsang, Christiaan Henning, Kerwin Martin, Elias Omondi, Gerardo Rubio and Jooste Steynberg

2024/239: Intimate Partner Violence and Women’s Economic Empowerment: Evidence from Indian States

Monique Newiak, Ratna Sahay and Navya Srivastava

2024/238: China’s Path to Sustainable and Balanced Growth

Dirk Muir, Natalija Novta and Anne Oeking

2024/237: Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Ghana: Extensions and Applications

Philip Abradu-Otoo, Joseph Acquah, James Attuquaye, Simon Harvey, Francis Loloh, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Valeriu Nalban, Daniel Ngoh, Victor Osei and Michael Quansah

2024/236: Foreign Exchange Intervention Under the Integrated Policy Framework: The Case of India

Jesper Lindé, Patrick Schneider, Nujin Suphaphiphat and Hou Wang

2024/235: Growth Convergence and Public Finances of India and its States

Rajan Govil and Khyati Chauhan

2024/234: Citizens' Perceptions of Tax Authorities and Tax Efficiency in Africa

Telma Yamou, Alun Thomas and Kaihao Cai

2024/233: Identifying Determinants of FX Stability in Mozambique

Samuel Mann and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

2024/232: Public Investment Management Bottlenecks in Low-income Countries

Khaled Eltokhy, Nicoletta Feruglio, Kezhou Miao, Arturo Navarro and Eivind Tandberg

2024/231: Demand for Ethanol Considering Spatially Differentiated Fuel Retailers

Simone Cuiabano

2024/230: The Political Economy of Fossil Fuel Subsidy Removal: Evidence from Bolivia and Mexico

Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Achim Hagen and Franziska Holz

2024/229: Dynamic Development Accounting and Relative Income Traps

Patrick Imam and Jonathan Temple

2024/228: Following the Money: Who is Keeping Coal Alive?

Gregor Schwerhoff and Mouhamadou Sy

2024/227: Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds

Matías Moretti, Lorenzo Pandolfi, German Villegas Bauer, Sergio Schmukler and Tomas Williams

2024/226: Central Bank Digital Currencies and Financial Stability: Balance Sheet Analysis and Policy Choices

Romain Bouis, R. Gaston Gelos, Fumitaka Nakamura, Paavo Miettinen, Erlend Nier and Gabriel Soderberg

2024/225: Reported Social Unrest Index: September 2024 Update

Philip Barrett

2024/224: A New Dataset of High-Frequency Monetary Policy Shocks

Marijn Bolhuis, Sonali Das and Bella Yao

2024/223: Parametric Pension Reform Options in Korea

Daniel Baksa, Boele Bonthuis, Si Guo and Zsuzsa Munkacsi

2024/222: Divergence in Post-Pandemic Earnings Growth: Evidence from Micro Data

Sophia Chen and Do Lee

2024/221: IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries: Fragile versus Non-Fragile States

Kaihao Cai, Edouard Martin and Felix Vardy

2024/220: Inflation and Labor Markets: A Bottom-Up View

Sophia Chen, Deniz Igan, Do Lee and Prachi Mishra

2024/219: What Can Artificial Intelligence Do for Stagnant Productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean?

Bas Bakker, Sophia Chen, Dmitry Vasilyev, Olga Bespalova, Moya Chin, Daria Kolpakova, Archit Singhal and Yuanchen Yang

2024/218: Europe’s Shift to EVs Amid Intensifying Global Competition

Philippe Wingender, Jiaxiong Yao, Robert Zymek, Benjamin Carton, Diego Cerdeiro and Anke Weber

2024/217: Shifting Perceptions: Unpacking Public Support for Immigrant Workers Integration in the Labor Market

Silvia Albrizio, Hippolyte Balima, Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang and Colombe Ladreit

2024/216: Private Participation and its Discontents: Insights from Large-Scale Surveys

Silvia Albrizio, Hippolyte Balima, Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang and Colombe Ladreit

2024/215: Beyond Energy: Inflationary Effects of Metals Price Shocks in Production Networks

Jorge Miranda-Pinto, Andrea Pescatori, Martin Stuermer and Xueliang Wang

2024/214: Global Shocks Unfolding: Lessons from Fragile and Conflict-affected States

Jocelyn Boussard, Chiara Castrovillari, Tomohide Mineyama, Marta Spinella, Bilal Tabti and Maxwell Tuuli

2024/213: The Economics of Decarbonizing Electricity Production

Gregor Schwerhoff

2024/212: Measuring Soft Power: A New Global Index

Serhan Cevik and Tales Padilha

2024/211: Migration into the EU: Stocktaking of Recent Developments and Macroeconomic Implications

Francesca Caselli, Huidan Lin, Frederik Toscani and Jiaxiong Yao

2024/210: An Updated Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation

Gustavo Adler, Cian Allen, Giovanni Ganelli and Daniel Leigh

2024/209: The Economic Impact of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from a New Cross-Country Database

Gee Hee Hong, Shikun (Barry) Ke and Anh Nguyen

2024/208: Transfers, Excess Savings, and Large Fiscal Multipliers

Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

2024/207: Committing to Grow: The Full Impact of WTO Accessions

André Brotto, Adam Jakubik, Roberta Piermartini and Fulvio Silvy

2024/206: Mending the Crystal Ball: Enhanced Inflation Forecasts with Machine Learning

Yang Liu, Ran Pan and Rui Xu

2024/205: Chinese Banks and Their EMDE Borrowers: Have Their Relationships Changed in Times of Geoeconomic Fragmentation?

Catherine Casanova, Eugenio Cerutti and Swapan-Kumar Pradhan