CW3E AR Update: 17 October Outlook

October 17, 2019

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Pacific Northwest Forecast to Receive Extended Duration of AR Conditions Next Week

• A series of systems is forecast to bring several days of atmospheric river conditions to the Pacific Northwest
• While uncertainty is currently high, southern Washington and Northern Oregon could experience AR condition durations >50-hours
• Maximum IVT magnitudes over Coastal Pacific Northwest could exceed 750 units
• Due to the long duration and potential for strong IVT magnitude, the NOAA WPC is currently forecasting as much as 15 inches of precipitation over the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-180 hour GFS forecasts Valid 1200 UTC 17 October – 0000 UTC 25 October 2019

Summary provided by C. Hecht, B.Kawzenuk, J. Kalansky, F. M. Ralph; 3 PM PT 17 October 2019