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Precipitation reconstruction for the northwestern Chinese Altay since 1760 indicates the drought signals of the northern part of inner Asia

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Abstract

Based on the significant positive correlations between the regional tree-ring width chronology and local climate data, the total precipitation of the previous July to the current June was reconstructed since AD 1760 for the northwestern Chinese Altay. The reconstruction model accounts for 40.7 % of the actual precipitation variance during the calibration period from 1959 to 2013. Wet conditions prevailed during the periods 1764–1777, 1784–1791, 1795–1805, 1829–1835, 1838–1846, 1850–1862, 1867–1872, 1907–1916, 1926–1931, 1935–1943, 1956–1961, 1968–1973, 1984–1997, and 2002–2006. Dry episodes occurred during 1760–1763, 1778–1783, 1792–1794, 1806–1828, 1836–1837, 1847–1849, 1863–1866, 1873–1906, 1917–1925, 1932–1934, 1944–1955, 1962–1967, 1974–1983, 1998–2001, and 2007–2012. The spectral analysis of the precipitation reconstruction shows the existence of some cycles (15.3, 4.5, 3.1, 2.7, and 2.1 years). The significant correlations with the gridded precipitation dataset revealed that the precipitation reconstruction represents the precipitation variation for a large area of the northern part of inner Asia. A comparison with the precipitation reconstruction from the southern Chinese Altay shows the high level of confidence for the precipitation reconstruction for the northwestern Chinese Altay. Precipitation variation of the northwestern Chinese Altay is positively correlated with sea surface temperatures in tropical oceans, suggesting a possible linkage of the precipitation variation of the northwestern Chinese Altay to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The synoptic climatology analysis reveals that there is the relationship between anomalous atmospheric circulation and extreme climate events in the northwestern Chinese Altay.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by supported by the NSFC Project (41275120), China Desert Meteorological Science Research Foundation (SQJ2013015), the Meteorology Public Welfare Industry Research Special Project (GYHY201206014). We thank the two reviewers very much whose comments greatly benefitted this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree Ring Ecology, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, 830002, China

    Feng Chen, Yujiang Yuan, Tongwen Zhang & Huaming Shang

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  1. Feng Chen
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  2. Yujiang Yuan
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  3. Tongwen Zhang
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  4. Huaming Shang
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Correspondence to Feng Chen.

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Chen, F., Yuan, Y., Zhang, T. et al. Precipitation reconstruction for the northwestern Chinese Altay since 1760 indicates the drought signals of the northern part of inner Asia. Int J Biometeorol 60, 455–463 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1043-5

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