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Intensity of tropical cyclones during pre- and post-monsoon seasons in relation to accumulated tropical cyclone heat potential over Bay of Bengal

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Abstract

The aim of the present study is to understand the impact of oceanic heat potential in relation to the intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) in the Bay of Bengal during the pre-monsoon (April–May) and post-monsoon (October–November) cyclones for the period 2006–2010. To accomplish this, the two-layer gravity model (TLGM) is employed to estimate daily tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) utilizing satellite altimeter data, satellite sea surface temperature (SST), and a high-resolution comprehensive ocean atlas developed for Indian Ocean, subsequently validated with in situ ARGO profiles. Accumulated TCHP (ATCHP) is estimated from genesis to the maximum intensity of cyclone in terms of minimum central pressure along their track of all the cyclones for the study period using TLGM generated TCHP and six-hourly National Centre for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data. Similarly, accumulated sea surface heat content (ASSHC) is estimated using satellite SST. In this study, the relationship between ATCHP and ASSHC with the central pressure (CP) which is a function of TC intensity is developed. Results reveal a distinct relationship between ATCHP and CP during both the seasons. Interestingly, it is seen that requirement of higher ATCHP during pre-monsoon cyclones is required to attain higher intensity compared to post-monsoon cyclones. It is mainly attributed to the presence of thick barrier layer (BL) resulting in higher enthalpy fluxes during post-monsoon period, where as such BL is non-existent during pre-monsoon period.

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Acknowledgments

We express our gratitude to Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) and ARGO community, for providing ARGO data. We are also thankful to WHOI OAFlux project for open access of ftp. We are thankful to the India Meteorological Department and JTWC for the track and description of system. Mr. Naresh Krishna Vissa is thankful to Dr. Akiyoshi Wada (Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency) for his valuable suggestions. Mr. Naresh Krishna Vissa would like to acknowledge the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), New Delhi, for the funding of his research and to Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, for providing necessary facilities to conduct Ph D work. We are thankful to the anonymous reviewers for their critical and constructive suggestions in improving the quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, 721 302, India

    Naresh Krishna Vissa & A. N. V. Satyanarayana

  2. Department of Ocean Engineering and Naval Architecture, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, 721 302, India

    B. Prasad Kumar

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  1. Naresh Krishna Vissa
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Correspondence to A. N. V. Satyanarayana.

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Vissa, N.K., Satyanarayana, A.N.V. & Prasad Kumar, B. Intensity of tropical cyclones during pre- and post-monsoon seasons in relation to accumulated tropical cyclone heat potential over Bay of Bengal. Nat Hazards 68, 351–371 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0625-y

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