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Implications of sea-level rise for overwash enhancement at South Portugal

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Abstract

Overwash is one of the most prominent hazards affecting coastal zones, and the associated consequences are expected to increase because of both sea-level rise and intensification of coastal occupation. This study used a 23-year data set of wave heights and tide-surge levels to define return periods of overwash potential for current and future sea-level conditions, namely 2055 and 2100, at two sites from South Portugal. A relevant intensification of both frequency and magnitude of the overwash is expected to occur by mid-century if adaptation measures are not taken and further aggravated by 2100. Current overwash levels with a return period of 100-years can reach a return period lower than 20-years by 2055 and 10-years by 2100. However, these values are rather variable from site to site, highlighting the urgency to develop detailed local studies to identify climate change impacts along coastal sectors, based on validated equations and long-term time series. These could be easily carried by replicating and adapting the here proposed methodology to sandy coasts worldwide. Understating the impact that climate change (namely sea-level rise) may have at the local level is key to contribute to effective management plans that include adaptation measures to minimize risks associated with coastal floods.

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Fig. 1

source: Google Earth). The red line (wall) indicates the area surveyed with DGPS to define the overwash threshold elevation. The white circles indicate the Faro wave buoy and the Huelva tide gauge

Fig. 2
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Availability of data and material (data transparency)

Processed data are available upon request to the authors. Wave and tide + surge data belong to the Portuguese Hydrographic Institute (Instituto Hidrográfico) and Puertos del Estado (Spain), respectively, and cannot be made publicly available by the authors.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the financial support of the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia to CIMA (Centro de Investigação Marinha e Ambiental) through grant UIDP/00350/2020 and the research projects ENLACE (PTDC/CTA-GFI/28949/ 2017) and EW-COAST (ALG-LISBOA-01-145-FEDER-028657). The authors also acknowledge the wave data availability from the Instituto Hidrográfico da Marinha Portuguesa and the tide+surge data availability from Puertos del Estado (http://www.puertos.es). Sunna Kupfer acknowledges the support of the Erasmus + program. The authors would like to thank Giovanni Coco and an anonymous reviewer that contributed to the increase in the overall quality of the paper.

Funding

This work was funded by FCT through CIMA research centre (UIDP/00350/2020) and the research projects ENLACE (PTDC/CTA-GFI/28949/ 2017) and EW-COAST (ALG-LISBOA-01-145-FEDER-028657). Sunna Kupfer internship at the University of Algarve was partially funded by the program Erasmus + for traineeships.

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  1. Centre for Marine and Environmental Research (CIMA), Faculty of Science and Technology, Gambelas Campus, University of Algarve, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal

    Óscar Ferreira & Susana Costas

  2. Department of Geography, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany

    Sunna Kupfer

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  1. Óscar Ferreira
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Correspondence to Óscar Ferreira.

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Ferreira, Ó., Kupfer, S. & Costas, S. Implications of sea-level rise for overwash enhancement at South Portugal. Nat Hazards 109, 2221–2239 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04917-0

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