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A GIS-based approach for gully erosion susceptibility modelling using bivariate statistics methods in the Ourika watershed, Morocco

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Abstract

Gully erosion is an important environmental issue with severe impacts. This study aimed to characterize gully erosion susceptibility and assess the capability of information value (InfVal) and frequency ratio (FR) models for its spatial prediction in Ourika watershed of the High Atlas region of Morocco. These two bivariate statistical methods have been used for gully erosion susceptibility mapping by comparing each data layer of causative factor to the existing gully distribution. Weights to the gully causative factors are assigned based on gully density. Gullies have been mapped through field surveys and Google earth high-resolution images. Lithofacies, land use, slope gradient, length-slope, aspect, stream power index, topographical wetness index and plan curvature were considered predisposing factors to gullying. The digitized gullies were randomly split into two parts. Sixty-five percent (65%) of the mapped gullies were randomly selected as training set to build gully susceptibility models, while the remaining 35% cases were used as validation set for the models’ validation. The results showed that barren and sparse vegetation lands and slope gradient above 50% were very susceptible to gully erosion. The ROC curve was used for testing the accuracy of the mentioned models. The analysis confirms that the FR model (AUC 80.61%) shows a better accuracy than InfVal model (AUC 52.07%). The performance of the gully erosion susceptibility map constructed by FR model is greater than that of the map produced by InfVal model. The findings proved that GIS-based bivariate statistical methods such as frequency ratio model could be successfully applied in gully susceptibility mapping in Morocco mountainous regions and in other similar environments. The produced susceptibility map represents a useful tool for sustainable planning, conservation and protection of land from gully processes.

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Acknowledgements

The International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada, funded this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculté des Sciences Rabat, Université Mohammed V, B.P. 1014 RP, 4 Av. Ibn Battouta, Rabat, Morocco

    Modeste Meliho

  2. Ecole Nationale Forestière d’Ingénieurs, BP. 511 Tabriquet, 11000, Salé, Morocco

    Abdellatif Khattabi

  3. Geophysic and Natural Risks Laboratory, Centre for Geophysics, Natural Patrimony and Green Chemistry (GEOPAC), Institut Scientifique, Université Mohammed V Rabat, Av. Ibn Batouta, B.P 703, 10106, Rabat, Morocco

    Modeste Meliho & Nadia Mhammdi

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  1. Modeste Meliho
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Correspondence to Modeste Meliho.

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Meliho, M., Khattabi, A. & Mhammdi, N. A GIS-based approach for gully erosion susceptibility modelling using bivariate statistics methods in the Ourika watershed, Morocco. Environ Earth Sci 77, 655 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7844-1

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