Abstract
An analysis of interannual variability in the surface air temperature of the summer season for individual regions of Russia, as well as for most of its territory between 1930 and 2020, has been performed. For the analysis, average daily air temperature data from 526 stations of the Roshydromet observation network and the ECMWF-ERA and NOAA-CIRES reanalyses are used. Based on the meteorological station’s observations and on the calculated number of days with extreme temperature values, the spatiotemporal distribution of ground air temperature for some summer months and for the summer season as a whole are evaluated. It is established that, over the past 60 years, the number of days with extremely high temperatures increased by a factor of 1.5 in most of Russia, with the largest number of such days occurring in July. Both the secular records of average monthly air temperature in the summer months as well as the absolute maximum temperature are established to be extreme. For the 30-year-long periods of instrumental observations, the maximum air temperature exceeded +39°C in some regions of Russia. It is shown that abnormally hot years have been unprecedented in the history of meteorological observations in Russia in terms of both record temperature values and the duration. The temperature regime of most areas of Russia is characterized by a spatiotemporal inhomogeneity. The analysis of temporal variation of extreme air temperature values suggests that the circumpolar and high-mountain areas are characterized by a fall in temperature in the summer months, whereas the temperate climate zones and southern regions of the country undergo a rise in temperature. It is established that, at the end of the 20th century and the early 21st century, the number of days with extremely high surface air temperature increased in the territory of Russia, which may be a precondition for the occurrence of dangerous meteorological phenomena.
Notes
Certificate of state registration of the computer program no. 2021619350. Software module for calculating the main climatic indicators, D.Yu. Vasil’ev, V.M. Kartak, N.A. Gusev, A.M. Vulfin, V.A. Semenov, and A.A. Chibilev; copyright holder Ufa State Aviation Technical University, no. 2021618572; declaration June 1, 2021; registered June 8, 2021.
Certificate of state registration of the database no. 2021621271. Matrices of the main climatic indicators, D.Yu. Vasil’ev, V.M. Kartak, N.A. Gusev, A.M. Vulfin, V.A. Semenov, and A.A. Chibilev; copyright holder Ufa State Aviation Technical University, no. 2021621119; declaration June 1, 2021; registered June 15, 2021.
REFERENCES
Doklad ob osobennostyakh klimata na territorii Rossiiskoi Federatsii za 2020 g. (Report on Climate Features in the Territory of the Russian Federation for 2020), Moscow: Rosgidromet, 2021.
Mokhov, I.I. and Akperov, M.G., Tropospheric lapse rate and its relation to surface temperature from reanalysis data, Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 2006, vol. 42, no. 4, pp. 430–438.
State of the Global Climate 2020, Geneva: WMO, 2021, no. 1264.
Jacox, M.G., Hazen, E.L., Zaba, K.D., Rudnik, D.L., Edwards, C.A., Moore, A.M., and Bogdar, S.J., Impacts of the 2015–2016 El Nino on the California current systems: Early assessment and comparison to past events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2016, vol. 43, pp. 7072–7080. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069716
Fomby, T.B. and Vogelsang, T.J., The application of size-robust trend statistics to global warming temperature series, J. Climate, 2002, vol. 15, no. 1, p. 117–123. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0117:TAOSRT>2.0.CO;2
Fiziko-geograficheskoe raionirovanie SSSR (Physico-Geographical Zoning of the USSR), Gvozdetskii, N.A., Ed., Moscow: Mosk. Univ., 1968.
Kagan, R.L., Osrednenie meteorologicheskikh polei (Averaging of Meteorological Fields), Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1979.
Osipov, I.L., Generalization of the linear interpolation procedure, Zh. Vychisl. Mat. Mat. Fiz., 1989, vol. 29, no. 5, pp. 780–783.
Michaelsen, J., Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast model, J. Climate Appl. Meteorol., 1987, vols. 26–11, pp. 1589–1600.
Hersbach, H., Peubey, C., Simmons, A., Berrisford, P., and Dee, D., ERA-20CM: A twentieth-century atmospheric model ensemble, Quart. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., 2015, vol. 141, no. 691, pp. 2350–2375.
Poli, P., Hersbach, H., Dee, D., Berrisford, P., Simmons, A., Vitart, F., and Tremolet, Y., ERA-20C: An atmospheric reanalysis of the twentieth century, J. Climate, 2016, vol. 29, no. 11, pp. 4083–4097.
Compo, G.P., Whitaker, J.S., Sardeshmukh, P.D., Matsui, N., Allan, R.J., Yin, X., and Bronnimann, S., The twentieth century reanalysis project, Quart. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., 2011, vol. 137, no. 654, pp. 1–28.
Bokuchava, D.D. and Semenov, V.A., Analysis of surface air temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere during the 20th century according to observations and reanalyses, Fundament. Prikl. Klimatol., 2018, no. 1, pp. 28–51.
Perevedentsev, Yu.P., Vil’fand, R.M., Shantalinskii, K.M., Gur’yanov, V.V., Nikolaev, A.A., and Ismagilov, N.V., Monitoring and forecasting of climatic variability on the territory of the Volga Federal District, Gidrometeorol. Issled. Prognozy, 2019, no. 1, pp. 67–94.
Dee, D.P., Uppala, S.M., Simmons, A.J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M.A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A.C.M., Berg, L. van de, Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A.J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S.B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E.V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A.P., Monge-Sanz, B.M, Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., Rosnay, P. de, Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F., The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Quart. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., 2011, vol. 137, no. 656, pp. 553–597.
Liu, L., Gu, H., Xie, J., and Xu, Yue-P., How well do the Era-Interim, ERA-5, GLDAS-2.1 and NCEP-R2 reanalysis datasets represent daily air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau?, Int. J. Climatol., 2020, vol. 41, no. 2, p. 1484–1505, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6867
Semenov, V.A. and Aleshina, M.A., Estimates of Direct Radiative Forcing Impact on Surface Air Temperature Changes in the Modern Period, Dokl. Earth Sci., 2021, vol. 497, no. 2, pp. 314–318. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X21040152
Popova, V.V. and Shmakin, A.B., Regional structure of surface-air temperature fluctuations in northern Eurasia in the latter half of the 20th and early 21st centuries, Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 2010, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 144–158.
Outten, S.D. and Esau, I., A link between Arctic sea ice and recent cooling trends over Eurasia, Climatic Change, 2011, vol. 110, nos. 3–4, pp. 1069–1075. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0334-z
Ukita, J., Honda, M., Nakamura, H., Tachibana, Y., Cavarieli, D.J., Parkinson, C.L., Koide, H., and Yamamoto, K., Northern hemisphere sea ice variability: Lag structure and its implications, Tellus, 2007, vol. 59, no. 2, pp. 261–272. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00223.x
Vasil’ev, D.Yu., Lukmanov, R.L., Ferapontov, Yu.I., and Chuvyrov, A.N., Periodicity in the hydrometeorological parameters of Bashkiria, Dokl. Earth Sci., 2013, vol. 448, no. 1, pp. 131–134.
Vasil’ev, D.Yu., Babkov, O.K., Kochetkova, E.S., and Semenov, V.A., Wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis of the sums of atmospheric precipitation and near-surface temperature on the European territory of Russia, Izv. Ross. Akad. Nauk. Ser. Geogr., 2017, no. 6, pp. 63–77.
Vasil’ev, D.Yu., Pavleychik, V.M., Semenov, V.A., Sivohip, J.T., and Chibilev, A.A., The long-term pattern of temperature and precipitation in the Southern Urals, Dokl. Earth Sci., 2018, vol. 478, no. 2, pp. 245–249. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X18020186
Ippolitov, I.I., Kabanov, M.V., Loginov, S.V., Sokolov, K.I., and Kharyutkina, E.V., Variability of the components of the heat balance of the surface of the Asian territory of Russia during the period of modern global warming, Opt. Atmos. Okeana, 2011, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 22–29.
Kharyutkina, E.V., Loginov, S.V., and Ippolitov, I.I., Influence of radiation and circulation factors on climate change in Western Siberia at the end of the 20th century and beginning of the 21st century, Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 2016, vol. 52, no. 6, pp. 579–586. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433816060098
Guide to Climatological Practices. WMO-No. 100, Geneva: World Meteorological Organization, 2018
Lokoshchenko, M.A., Catastrophic heat of 2010 in Moscow from data of ground-based meteorological measurements, Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 2012, vol. 48, no. 5, pp. 463–475.
Doklad o nauchno-metodicheskikh osnovakh dlya razrabotki strategii adaptatsii k izmeneniyam klimata v Rossiiskoi Federatsii (Report on the Scientific and Methodological Foundations for Developing a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy in the Russian Federation), St. Petersburg: Rosgidromet, 2020.
Shamin, S.I. and Sanina, A.T., Estimation of the frequency of occurrence of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena that caused damage to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, Tr. Vseross. Nauchno-Issled. Inst. Gidrometeorol. Inf. – Mir. Tsentra Dannykh, 2019, no. 184, pp. 54–66.
Funding
This study was supported by Russian Ministry of Science and Higher Education (Agreement no. 075-15-2021-577); data processing and calculation of days with extreme values of surface air temperature were performed as part of State Task AAAA-A21-121011190016-1.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
The author declares that she has no conflicts of interest.
Additional information
Translated by L. Solovyova
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Vasil’ev, D.Y., Semenov, V.A. & Chibilev, A.A. Climatic Changes of the Temperature Regime on the Territory of Russia in the 20th and Early 21st Centuries. Geogr. Nat. Resour. 44, 99–106 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1875372823020130
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1875372823020130