The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and economic agents inflation expectations.Empirical study

Magdalena Szyszko
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Magdalena Szyszko: Wyższa Szkoła Bankowa w Poznaniu, Katedra Bankowości i Rynku Finansowego

No 105, NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski

Abstract: This paper focuses on the associations between the inflation forecasts of the central bank and inflation expectations of the households. The first part is of a descriptive nature. It gives the theoretical background of modern monetary policy focusing on the role of expectations. It also presents the idea of inflation forecast targeting. Then the framework of the inflation forecast targeting in four countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania is presented. The empirical part of the study is an attempt to find associations between the inflation forecasts results and inflation expectations of consumers derived on the basis of surveys. The theory gives sound background for the existence of such relationships.The interdependences are tested in several ways. The last part of the paper focuses on the results and conclusions.

Keywords: inflation forecasts; inflation forecasts targeting; inflation expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 55
Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-tra
Note: This research project was conducted under the NBP Economic Research Committee’s open competition for research projects to be carried out by the NBP staff and economists from outside the NBP and was financed by the National Bank of Poland.
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:105

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