Emerging regions in the era of negative real interest rates: twenty years of convergence towards the US?

Max Gillman

Chapter 37 in Handbook of Banking and Finance in Emerging Markets, 2022, pp 687-709 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: The chapter delineates five emerging nation regions based on each of the BRICS nations as a leading nation. Each BRICS nation centers a set of geographically connected emerging nations to represent capital market trends among 20 emerging nations in five regions. For 2000-2020, it shows graphically how the real short term interest rates have evolved in each region, with US as a baseline and with data correlations included. It extends this to include the real GDP output growth rates for each of the five emerging regions, with comparison to the US. Then discussion is provided of alternative theories explaining real interest rate paths and output growth paths, and whether convergence in global capital markets may be occurring in the emerging regions. It suggests how US monetary policy of sustained negative real interest rates may have spread to emerging regions after the financial crisis and lowered their output growth rates.

Keywords: Development Studies; Economics and Finance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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