Fiscal Consolidation, Public Debt and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: lessons from a simple model with time-varying fiscal multipliers

Christophe Blot (), Marion Cochard (), Jerome Creel, Bruno Ducoudré, Danielle Schweisguth () and Xavier Timbeau
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Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Danielle Schweisguth: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: EMU countries have engaged in fiscal consolidation since 2011. This paper deals with the public debt and output dynamic consequences of this strategy. To this end, we develop a simple macroeconomic model of the Euro area, where fiscal multiplier is time-varying. Recent empirical evidence has indeed shown that fiscal multipliers were higher in time of crisis. We then analyze the ability of EMU countries to comply with the new fiscal rules on public debt. The path of public debt and output gap is simulated according to different hypotheses related to fiscal multiplier, monetary policy and hysteresis effects. Not all EMU countries would be able to reach a 60 % debt-to-GDP ratio in 2032. An alternative strategy may be to spread austerity in order to report part of consolidation to periods where the fiscal multiplier will be weaker. The gain of spreading austerity may yet be partly offset by higher risk premium. There is then a need to find institutional arrangements to avoid panics in the sovereign debt markets. Finally, it is shown that it would not be very efficient to implement an expansionary fiscal policy in Germany in order to balance austerity in the Euro area. Since output gap is nearly closed in Germany, the multiplier effect of a positive fiscal stance would be low and spillover effects would not be significant.

Keywords: Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal multiplier; Public debt; Macroeconomic Performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-11
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03429902
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Published in Revue d'économie politique, 2014, 124 (6), pp.953-989. ⟨10.3917/redp.246.0953⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Fiscal Consolidation, Public Debt and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: lessons from a simple model with time-varying fiscal multipliers (2014)
Working Paper: Fiscal consolidation, public debt and output dynamics in the euro area: lessons from a simple model with time-varying fiscal multipliers (2014)
Working Paper: Fiscal Consolidation, Public Debt and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: lessons from a simple model with time-varying fiscal multipliers (2014)
Working Paper: Fiscal consolidation, public debt and output dynamics in the euro area: lessons from a simple model with time-varying fiscal multipliers (2014)
Working Paper: Fiscal consolidation, public debt and output dynamics in the euro area: lessons from a simple model with time-varying fiscal multipliers (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03429902

DOI: 10.3917/redp.246.0953

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