The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-level Evidence from Italy

Elena Carletti, Tommaso Oliviero (), Marco Pagano and Loriana Pelizzon ()

No 450, Working Papers from University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics

Abstract: We forecast the drop in profits and the equity shortfall triggered by the COVID-19 lockdown, using a representative sample of 80,972 Italian firms. A 3-month lockdown entails an aggregate yearly drop in profits of about 10% of GDP and results in financial distress for 17% of the sample firms, employing 8.8% of the sample employees. Distress is more frequent for small and medium-sized enterprises, for firms with high pre-COVID-19 leverage, and those belonging to the Manufacturing and Wholesale Trading sectors. Listed companies are less likely to enter distress, while there is no clear correlation between distress rates and family firm ownership.

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemics; losses; distress; equity; recapitalization. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G01 G32 G33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35
Date: 2020-10, Revised 2020-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-cfn, nep-ent, nep-for and nep-sbm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (68)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-Level Evidence from Italy (2020)
Working Paper: The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-level Evidence from Italy (2020)
Working Paper: The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-level Evidence from Italy (2020)
Working Paper: The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-level Evidence from Italy (2020)
Working Paper: The COVID-19 shock and equity shortfall: Firm-level evidence from Italy (2020)
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