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→Electoral College forecasts: update, Cook Political Report has moved NE-02 (Omaha, Nebraska) to Likely. |
XavierGreen (talk | contribs) There is a consensus to state in the lead that the economy is the most important issue cited by voters |
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Biden's predecessor, [[Donald Trump]], a member of the [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party]], is [[Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign|running for re-election]] for a second, non-consecutive term, after losing to Biden in [[2020 United States presidential election|2020]].<ref>{{Cite web |date=November 16, 2022 |title=Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024 |website=[[CNN]] |url=https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/trump-2024-presidential-bid/index.html|access-date=July 24, 2024|archive-date=January 15, 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230115195034/https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/trump-2024-presidential-bid/index.html|url-status=live}}</ref> He was nominated during the [[2024 Republican National Convention]] along with his running mate, [[Ohio]] senator [[JD Vance]]. The Trump campaign has been noted for making many [[False or misleading statements by Donald Trump|false and misleading statements]],<ref name="Los Angeles Times-2024" /><ref name="The Washington Post-2024-2" /><ref name="The Washington Post-2024" /> engaging in anti-immigrant [[fearmongering]],{{Efn|name=Fearmongering}} and promoting [[List of conspiracy theories promoted by Donald Trump|conspiracy theories]].<ref name="The New York Times-2022" /><ref name="The Associated Press-2023" /> Trump has continued to repeat his [[2020 United States presidential election#False claims of fraud|false claims]] that the 2020 election was stolen from him, which prompted the [[January 6 Capitol attack]].<ref name="Associated Press-2023-2" /> Trump's embrace of [[Far-right politics|far-right extremism]]<ref name="The New York Times-2022"/><ref name="The Associated Press-2023"/> and increasingly violent, [[Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign#Violent and dehumanizing statements|dehumanizing]], and [[Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign#Authoritarian and antidemocratic statements|authoritarian]] rhetoric{{efn|name=Rhetoric1}} against his political opponents has been described by historians and scholars as populist, authoritarian, fascist,{{Efn|name=Fascist}} unlike anything a political candidate has ever said in U.S. history,<ref name="NYMag Never Sounded Like This" /><ref name="Lerer 10152024"/><ref name="Applebaum 10182024"/> and a continued breaking of political norms.<ref name="Gold 08282024">{{cite news|last=Gold|first=Michael|title=Trump Reposts Crude Sexual Remark About Harris on Truth Social |url= https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/28/us/politics/trump-truth-social-posts.html |newspaper=The New York Times|date=August 28, 2024 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20240828230508/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/28/us/politics/trump-truth-social-posts.html |archive-date=August 28, 2024|url-status=live|quote=Though he has a history of making crass insults about his opponents, the reposts signal Mr. Trump's willingness to continue to shatter longstanding norms of political speech.|access-date=August 28, 2024}}</ref> The Republican Party has made efforts to [[Republican Party efforts to disrupt the 2024 United States presidential election|disrupt the 2024 presidential election]] as part of a larger [[Election denial movement in the United States|election denial movement]] among U.S. [[Conservatism|conservatives]]. In May 2024, Trump was [[Prosecution of Donald Trump in New York|found guilty on 34 felony counts]] of falsifying business records, becoming the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime.<ref name="ABC News-2024-2" /> In 2023 and 2024, he was also found liable in civil proceedings [[E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump|for sexual abuse, defamation]], and [[New York business fraud lawsuit against the Trump Organization|financial fraud]]. Trump remains under [[Indictments against Donald Trump|multiple indictments]] for his [[Federal prosecution of Donald Trump (election obstruction case)|attempts to overturn the 2020 election and role in the January 6 attack]] and his [[Georgia election racketeering prosecution|racketeering prosecution to overturn the 2020 presidential election in the state of Georgia]]. Trump survived an [[Attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Pennsylvania|assassination attempt in July 2024]] during a campaign rally; he was shot in the ear.<ref name="Pennsylvania Assassination" />
The presidential election will take place at the same time as [[2024 United States Senate elections|elections for the U.S. Senate]], [[2024 United States House of Representatives elections|House]], [[2024 United States gubernatorial elections|state governorships]], and [[State legislature (United States)|state legislatures]]. Key swing states for the presidential election include [[2024 United States presidential election in Arizona|Arizona]], [[2024 United States presidential election in Georgia|Georgia]], [[2024 United States presidential election in Michigan|Michigan]], [[2024 United States presidential election in Nevada|Nevada]], [[2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina|North Carolina]], [[2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]], and [[2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]].<ref name="BBC-2024">{{Cite web |date=August 23, 2024 |title=Seven swing states set to decide the 2024 US election |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511pyn3xw3o |access-date=August 24, 2024 |website=www.bbc.com |language=en-GB |archive-date=July 24, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240724045607/https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511pyn3xw3o |url-status=live}}</ref>
*{{Cite news |last=Edsall |first=Thomas B. |author-link=Thomas B. Edsall |date=April 12, 2023 |title=How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/opinion/republican-party-intrusive-government.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230412100935/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/opinion/republican-party-intrusive-government.html |archive-date=April 12, 2023 |access-date=April 12, 2023 |work=The New York Times |quote=Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion—of the procedure, of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy... According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation, states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.}}
*{{Cite news |last=Weisman |first=Jonathan |date=April 11, 2023 |title=Pressured by Their Base on Abortion, Republicans Strain to Find a Way Forward |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/11/us/politics/abortion-republicans-elections.html|url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230411092928/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/11/us/politics/abortion-republicans-elections.html |archive-date=April 11, 2023 |access-date=April 12, 2023 |work=The New York Times}}
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