Experimental NMME-based Ensemble Forecasts for Drought Indices

Real-time plot is NMME driven drought forecasts ensemble median (total 60 ensemble members).

Real-time forecasts of drought indices were computed using NMME ENSEMBLE hindcasts (1991-2020, i.e., sample size=nensembles*nyears) as the base, where real-time forecasts (hindcasts) used all (leave-one-year-out) hindcast samples.

Forecast Map

Short-term Drought Forecast
Long-term Drought Forecast

SPI: Standardized Precipitation Index
SPEI: Standardized Prcp. Evap. Index
SMP: Soil Moisture Percentile
SRI: Standardized Runoff Index

Contacts: Dr. Li Xu li.xu@noaa.gov ; Dr. Hailan Wang hailan.wang@noaa.gov

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Experimental NMME-based Ensemble Forecasts for Drought Indices

Real-time plot is NMME driven drought forecasts ensemble median (total 60 ensemble members).

Real-time forecasts of drought indices were computed using NMME ENSEMBLE hindcasts (1991-2020, i.e., sample size=nensembles*nyears) as the base, where real-time forecasts (hindcasts) used all (leave-one-year-out) hindcast samples.

Forecast Map

Contacts: Dr. Li Xu li.xu@noaa.gov ; Dr. Hailan Wang hailan.wang@noaa.gov

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