Papers by Arun Bhakta Shrestha
This assessment report establishes the value of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) for the 240 million... more This assessment report establishes the value of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) for the 240 million hill and mountain people across the eight countries sharing the region, for the 1.65 billion people in the river basins downstream, and ultimately for the world. Yet, the region and its people face a range of old and new challenges moving forward, with climate change, globalization, movement of people, conflict and environmental degradation. At the same time, we also see incredible potential to meet these challenges in a sustainable manner
regional knowledge, learning and enabling centre serving the eight regional member countries
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There is a growing recognition that countries of the Indus River Basin face major and changing th... more There is a growing recognition that countries of the Indus River Basin face major and changing threats to their future water security and thus to their peoples’ critical food and energy needs. The recognized feature of the Indus basin is that the downstream areas are highly dependent on water resources originating in the upper catchments mountainous water sources. Indus River has one of highest dependence on melt water recharge and the generally semi-arid basin is naturally water stressed. Climate and socio-economic changes are further aggravating the situation. Therefore there is a need for in-depth study, thorough analysis and the consolidated study of the multiple factors that links climate change, glaciology and runoff hydrology. For this a robust analytical tool to understand the impacts and to plan effective adaptation is essential. A multi-stakeholder initiative undertook investigation of snow and glacier melt runoff modelling of a heavily glacierized sub-basin of upper Indus...
Indus River Basin, 2019
The Indus Basin plays a major role in the livelihood and well-being of nearly 268 million people.... more The Indus Basin plays a major role in the livelihood and well-being of nearly 268 million people. The people who live there are either directly or indirectly dependent on the water generated from the snow and glacier melt in the upstream part of the basin. The Indus Basin has become increasingly vulnerable due to climate change, as the basin flow is largely derived from snow and glacier melt, which are sensitive to changes in climate. Current and future water availability in the basin is therefore a critical aspect in the future planning and management of water resources as well as for preparing effective adaptation measures to cope with changing climate scenarios. This chapter reviews the literature on future climate projections in the Indus Basin based on climate modeling of the region. A majority of the studies reviewed project an increase in temperature that is more prominent in the higher altitude under high-emission scenarios. An increase in precipitation is projected in the U...
Glaciers hold about 70% of the earth’s freshwater (UNEP, 2002). They cover about 17% of the total... more Glaciers hold about 70% of the earth’s freshwater (UNEP, 2002). They cover about 17% of the total area of the mountainous Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region of south and eastern Asia (Xu et al., 2007). Ten of the greatest rivers of Asia have their headwaters in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Mountains. Thus, these mountains are often called “the water towers of Asia” (ICIMOD, 2009). Nepal is a small land-locked country in South Asia, occupying an area of 147,181 km 2 and with a population of about 29 million people (The World Bank Group, 2009). A major portion of the country's territory is occupied by mountainous terrain, which contains large numbers of glaciers and glacial lakes, as well as being home to 8 of the 10 highest mountain peaks in the world, including Mount Everest (8848 m). Glaciers cover about 9.6% of Nepal’s total land area (Sharma, 2010; ICIMOD, 2001). These glaciers are huge reservoirs of freshwater in frozen form which maintain the perennial flow of the major rivers o...
During the past few decades, our understanding of the potential risks from climate change to moun... more During the past few decades, our understanding of the potential risks from climate change to mountain ecosystem has increased. The Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) is characterised by diverse climate due to diversity in geology, monsoon influence and ecosystems. Though paucity in studies, it was observed that the HKH ecosystems witnessed changes in climate over the period with evidence of change in phenology and species range shift altering ecosystem functions. During 1901–2014, annual mean surface air temperature significantly increased in the HKH at a rate of about 0.11 °C per decade showing significant upward trend. The intense precipitation also showed increasing trend in annual intense precipitation amount, days and intensity with 5.28 mm per decade, 0.14 day per decade and 0.39 mm/day per decade respectively. The elevation dependent warming has also been prominent in the HKH with higher warming with the increasing elevation. Higher warming is projected during winter and the projecte...
Science of The Total Environment
The Upper Indus Basin's (UIB) unique geographical positioning and its ecosystem contributions... more The Upper Indus Basin's (UIB) unique geographical positioning and its ecosystem contributions to the downstream basin in the form of water and energy are of critical importance. UIB is also among the most vulnerable water towers in the world vis-a-vis climate as well as a host of environmental and socio-economic changes. The paucity of ground observations and their associated unknowns make it imperative to study and highlight the grey areas for attention and action by policy planners and basin government and management at different levels in order to improve the management and the governance structures for better water resource management. As this river basin is shared between countries, enhanced co-creation of knowledge can provide greater understanding of the challenges to stakeholders so that they can make better decisions regarding the development of the region. With this in view, the UIB network, comprising four national chapters (Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan) linked strategically at regional level, was conceived to provide better understanding of the critical issues associated with the UIB. The network strives for a resilient and empowered UIB region through science-based regional cooperation, which promotes coordination and collaboration among organizations working in the UIB to ensure improved understanding of present and future water availability, demand and hazards and to develop gender sensitive solutions for all stakeholders. The special issue is one of such efforts from the network in knowledge generation, exchange, and dissemination to contribute towards an enhanced understanding of climate change impacts in the Indus. The paper presents a time-wise evolution of the network to highlight the importance of cross boundary knowledge and the relevance of such networks. Such a science-based network can provide important information for science-backed policies for the basin countries. It also details the achievements of the network, lessons learnt from such knowledge networks, and the potential for future contributions to basin countries taking into consideration the transboundary nature of the UIB.
Science of The Total Environment
Siloed-approaches may fuel the misguided development of hydropower and subsequent target-setting ... more Siloed-approaches may fuel the misguided development of hydropower and subsequent target-setting under the sustainable development goals (SDGs). While hydropower development in the Indus basin is vital to ensure energy security (SDG7), it needs to be balanced with water use for fulfilling food (SDG2) and water (SDG6) security. Existing methods to estimate hydropower potential generally focus on: only one class of potential, a methodological advance for either of hydropower siting, sizing, or costing of one site, or the ranking of a portfolio of projects. A majority of them fall short in addressing sustainability. Hence, we develop a systematic framework for the basin-scale assessment of the sustainable hydropower potential by integrating considerations of the waterenergy-food nexus, disaster risk, climate change, environmental protection, and socioeconomic preferences. Considering the case of the upper Indus, the framework is developed by combining advances in literature, insights from local hydropower practitioners and over 30 datasets to represent real-life challenges to sustainable hydropower development, while distinguishing between small and large plants for two run-of-river plant configurations. The framework first addresses theoretical potential and successively constrains this further by stepwise inclusion of technical, economical, and sustainability criteria to obtain the sustainable exploitable hydropower potential. We conclude that sustainable hydropower potential in complex basins such as the Indus goes far beyond the hydrological boundary conditions. Our framework enables the careful inclusion of factors beyond the
and the global mountain community. Founded in 1983, ICIMOD is based in Kathmandu, Nepal, and brin... more and the global mountain community. Founded in 1983, ICIMOD is based in Kathmandu, Nepal, and brings together a partnership of regional member countries, partner institutions, and donors with a commitment for development action to secure a better future for the people and environment of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas. ICIMOD's activities are supported by its core sponsors: the Governments of Austria,
International Journal of Water Resources Development
With rising energy demand in Asia, the high potential for hydropower development and the need for... more With rising energy demand in Asia, the high potential for hydropower development and the need for low-carbon energy development, hydropower would seem to have a significant role in South Asia's energy future. However, the extent of hydropower development will depend on several risk factors, including the cost of alternative energy sources, the environmental sustainability of hydropower and social issues of equitable development. Using a risk-analysis framework, it is concluded that the future of hydropower will depend on how well policies and institutions manage the risks, facilitate efficient financial markets, and promote fair and friendly cross-border electricity trade.
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Papers by Arun Bhakta Shrestha