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When is an aggregate of a time series efficiently forecast by its past?
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Cited by:
- Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy P. Rydlewski & Małgorzata Snarska, 2018. "Generalized Exponential Smoothing In Prediction Of Hierarchical Time Series," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 331-350, June.
- WAN, Shui-Ki & WANG, Shin-Huei & WOO, Chi-Keung, 2012. "Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2012039, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Carlomagno, Guillermo, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy P. Rydlewski, 2018. "Forecasting of a Hierarchical Functional Time Series on Example of Macromodel for the Day and Night Air Pollution in Silesia Region - A Critical Overview," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(1), pages 53-73, March.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2022.
"Dimension Reduction for High‐Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1123-1152, October.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2020. "Dimension Reduction for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 2009.03361, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2022. "Dimension Reduction for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models," CEIS Research Paper 534, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Mar 2022.
- Thiago Carlomagno Carlo & Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2016.
"Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(50), pages 4846-4860, October.
- Carlos, Thiago Carlomagno & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon," Textos para discussão 346, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
- Martin McCarthy, Stephen Snudden, 2024. "Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data," LCERPA Working Papers jc0148, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Oct 2024.
- Brüggemann, Ralf & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2013.
"Forecasting contemporaneous aggregates with stochastic aggregation weights,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 60-68.
- Ralf Brueggemann & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2011. "Forecasting Contemporaneous Aggregates with Stochastic Aggregation Weights," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/17, European University Institute.
- Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2011. "Forecasting Contemporaneous Aggregates with Stochastic Aggregation Weights," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-23, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004.
"Aggregation of space-time processes,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 7-26.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W.J., 2001. "Aggregationn of Space-Time Processes," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt77f76455, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Clive W.J. Granger, 2002. "Aggregation of Space-Time Processes," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 582, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Ahmed, Roman A. & Athanasopoulos, George & Shang, Han Lin, 2011.
"Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(9), pages 2579-2589, September.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Roman A. Ahmed & George Athanasopoulos, 2007. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Francisco Dias & Maximiano Pinheiro & António Rua, 2018.
"A bottom-up approach for forecasting GDP in a data-rich environment,"
Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(10), pages 718-723, June.
- António Rua & Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2016. "A bottom-up approach for forecasting GDP in a data rich environment," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Barrera, Carlos, 2013. "El sistema de predicción desagregada: Una evaluación de las proyecciones de inflación 2006-2011," Working Papers 2013-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Guillermo Carlomagno & Nicolas Eterovic & L. G. Hernández-Román, 2023. "Disentangling Demand and Supply Inflation Shocks from Chilean Electronic Payment Data," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 986, Central Bank of Chile.
- Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
- Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, 2021. "Predictability of Aggregated Time Series," LCERPA Working Papers bm0127, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
- Pennings, Clint L.P. & van Dalen, Jan, 2017. "Integrated hierarchical forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 412-418.
- Spiliotis, Evangelos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2018. "Cross-temporal aggregation: Improving the forecast accuracy of hierarchical electricity consumption," MPRA Paper 91762, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2020.
"Dimension Reduction for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models,"
Papers
2009.03361, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
- Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2022. "Dimension Reduction for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models," CEIS Research Paper 534, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Mar 2022.
- David F. Hendry & Kirstin Hubrich, 2011.
"Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227, April.
- Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2011. "Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227.
- Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2010. "Combining disaggregate forecasts or combining disaggregate information to forecast an aggregate," Working Paper Series 1155, European Central Bank.
- Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005.
"Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
- Hubrich, Kirstin, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 247, European Central Bank.
- Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics.
- Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2021.
"Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2477-2499, November.
- Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1224, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Carson, Richard T. & Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Parker, Roger, 2011.
"Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 923-941.
- Carson, Richard T. & Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Parker, Roger, 2011. "Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 923-941, July.
- Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
- Colin Bermingham & Antonello D’Agostino, 2014.
"Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 765-788, March.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Bermingham, Colin, 2010. "Understanding and Forecasting Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Dynamics," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/10, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Bermingham, Colin & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2011. "Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics," Working Paper Series 1365, European Central Bank.
- Kovtun, Vladimir & Giloni, Avi & Hurvich, Clifford, 2019. "The value of sharing disaggregated information in supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 469-478.
- Espasa, Antoni & Mayo-Burgos, Iván, 2013.
"Forecasting aggregates and disaggregates with common features,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 718-732.
- Mayo, Iván, 2012. "Forecasting aggregates and disaggregates with common features," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws110805, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy. P. Rydlewski, 2017. "Forecasting of a Hierarchical Functional Time Series on Example of Macromodel for Day and Night Air Pollution in Silesia Region: A Critical Overview," Papers 1712.03797, arXiv.org.
- Nijman, Theo E & Palm, Franz C, 1990.
"Predictive Accuracy Gain from Disaggregate Sampling in ARIMA Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(4), pages 405-415, October.
- Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1987. "Predictive accuracy gain from disaggregate sampling in ARIMA-models," Research Memorandum FEW 273, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1990. "Predictive accuracy gain from disaggregate sampling in ARIMA models," Other publications TiSEM 50a68aea-1b30-497d-b111-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Widiarta, Handik & Viswanathan, S. & Piplani, Rajesh, 2009. "Forecasting aggregate demand: An analytical evaluation of top-down versus bottom-up forecasting in a production planning framework," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 87-94, March.
- Zhang, Keyi & Gençay, Ramazan & Ege Yazgan, M., 2017. "Application of wavelet decomposition in time-series forecasting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 41-46.
- Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy P. Rydlewski, 2017. "Aggregated moving functional median in robust prediction of hierarchical functional time series - an application to forecasting web portal users behaviors," Papers 1710.02669, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
- Giacomo Sbrana & Andrea Silvestrini, 2012. "Comparing aggregate and disaggregate forecasts of first order moving average models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 255-263, May.
- Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2010. "Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Zeda Li & William W. S. Wei, 2024. "Measuring the advantages of contemporaneous aggregation in forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1308-1320, August.
- Spiliotis, Evangelos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2020. "Cross-temporal aggregation: Improving the forecast accuracy of hierarchical electricity consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
- Clive W. J. Granger, 1988. "Aggregation of time series variables-a survey," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Stéphane Dées & Jochen Güntner, 2014.
"Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors: A panel VAR approach,"
Economics working papers
2014-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Dées, Stéphane & Güntner, Jochen, 2014. "Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors: a panel VAR approach," Working Paper Series 1724, European Central Bank.
- Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2013.
"Forecasting aggregate demand: Analytical comparison of top-down and bottom-up approaches in a multivariate exponential smoothing framework,"
International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 185-198.
- Giacomo Sbrana & Andrea Silvestrini, 2013. "Forecasting aggregate demand: analytical comparison of top-down and bottom-up approaches in a multivariate exponential smoothing framework," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 929, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1987. "Predictive accuracy gain from disaggregate sampling in ARIMA-models," Other publications TiSEM 73cf32e2-d741-45a0-8b3e-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Hendry, David & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006.
"Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Monterrey Mayoral, Juan & Sánchez Segura, Amparo, 2017. "Una evaluación empírica de los métodos de predicción de la rentabilidad y su relación con las características corporativas," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 95-106.
- Kosiorowski Daniel & Mielczarek Dominik & Rydlewski Jerzy P. & Snarska Małgorzata, 2018. "Generalized Exponential Smoothing In Prediction Of Hierarchical Time Series," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 19(2), pages 331-350, June.
- Stephen Snudden, 2024. "Don’t Ruin the Surprise: Temporal Aggregation Bias in Structural Innovations," LCERPA Working Papers jc0149, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Nov 2024.
- Helmut Lütkepohl, 2010.
"Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey,"
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-26.
- Helmut Luetkepohl, 2009. "Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/17, European University Institute.
- Garcia-Ferrer, A. & de Juan, A. & Poncela, P., 2006. "Forecasting traffic accidents using disaggregated data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 203-222.
- Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics.
- Tian-Shyug Lee & I-Fei Chen & Ting-Jen Chang & Chi-Jie Lu, 2020. "Forecasting Weekly Influenza Outpatient Visits Using a Two-Dimensional Hierarchical Decision Tree Scheme," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-15, July.
- Moosa, Imad A. & Vaz, John, 2018. "Direct and Indirect Forecasting of Cross Exchange Rates," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 71(2), pages 173-190.
- Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, Lenin Arango-Castillo, 2023. "Seize the Last Day: Period-End-Point Sampling for Forecasts of Temporally Aggregated Data," LCERPA Working Papers bm0142, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
- Vladimir Kovtun & Avi Giloni & Clifford Hurvich & Sridhar Seshadri, 2023. "Pivot Clustering to Minimize Error in Forecasting Aggregated Demand Streams Each Following an Autoregressive Moving Average Model," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-28, November.