Papers by Dr. Rayees Ahmed
Natural hazards review, Aug 1, 2024
CRC Press eBooks, Feb 6, 2024
Geocarto International, 2022
Climate warming has caused accelerated glacier recession in the
Eastern Himalayas. This phenomen... more Climate warming has caused accelerated glacier recession in the
Eastern Himalayas. This phenomenon has consequently resulted
in the development of new glacial lakes and expansion of the
existing ones. The outbursts of these lakes has the potential to
cause flashfloods with negative impacts for the downstream com
munity. This study used Remote Sensing data products to
develop a glacial lake database of Dibang River Basin for the year
2020. The multi-temporal Landsat series data was used to exam
ine the surficial changes in glacial lakes larger than 0.1km2. The
key parameters derived from previous glacial lake studies were
used to identify the Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes (PDGLs)
and conduct their hazard assessment. Finally, the Indian Monsoon
Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) data was used to analyze
the Temperature and Precipitation trends from 1980 to 2020 to
understand timpact of climate change on lake behaviour. Our
f
indings reveal that the study region has 403 glacial lakes with a
total area of 55.73km2 in 2020. The area of selected glacial lakes
has increased from 29.96km2 in 1985 to 32.56km2 in 2020 at a
rate of 0.07km2 per year. Twelve (12) lakes were identified as
PDGLs in the study region. After applying the weighted index
method, 4 lakes among them were categorized as high, 5 as
medium and 3 as low hazard glacial lakes. The Mann Kendal test
of Tmin,Tmax and Tmean revealed an increasing trend with a Z stat
ics value of >0, whereas mean precipitation on the contrary
showed a significant decreasing trend with a Z statics value of
<0. The changes in climatic variables (i.e., temperature and pre
cipitation) indicate that the warmer conditions prevail in the
region, causing glacier shrinking and retreat, formation of new
lakes and expansion of existing ones. Hence, we propose the con
tinuous monitoring and assessment of high hazard glacial lakes
for the prevention and mitigation of Glacier Lake Outburst Floods
(GLOFs) in the study region.
Earth Science Informatics, Jul 20, 2022
Remote Sensing, Nov 24, 2022
Geocarto International, Feb 20, 2022
Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Jan 12, 2023
Environmental Earth Sciences
Environment, Development and Sustainability
ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Feb 2, 2023
Research Square (Research Square), Jan 9, 2023
As glaciers recede in response to global climate change, a significant growth of glacial lakes is... more As glaciers recede in response to global climate change, a significant growth of glacial lakes is being witnessed in the Himalayan region. Owing to their high elevations, rapid growth and mostly unstable dams constituting of loosely consolidated glacial moraine deposits, these lakes pose a significant threat in the form of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). This study focused on studying the evolution of glacial lakes in Shyok catchment of Upper Indus basin, over a period of 30 years (1992 to 2022) and assessing their GLOF hazard levels. The Inventorization and Spatio-temporal change detection of the glacial lakes (A≥0.001 km 2) was done using multi-temporal medium and high-resolution satellite imagery from the years 1992, 2002, 2012 and 2022. Besides, we have used Google Earth and Planet imagery, to validate the glacier and glacial lakes outlines. The GLOF hazard level assessment was carried out through a multi-criteria approach using Analytical Hierarchy Process AHP to classify the lakes into very-low, low, medium, high and very-high hazard categories. The results reveal a significant increase in the total number of glacial lakes from 143 in 1992 to 240 in 2022 as well as the total glacial lake area that increased from 8.45 km 2 (± 0.02 km 2) in 1992 to 13.26 km 2 (± 0.04 km 2) in 2022. Furthermore, out of 63 glacial lakes (A>0.05 km 2) selected for the hazard assessment, 7 lakes were identified as very-high hazard lakes with GLOF susceptibility indices greater than 7.0 while 19 more lakes were classified as High-hazard lakes with GLOF susceptibilities in the range of 0.6 to 0.7. Most of these lakes are proglacial lakes and are close to their mother glaciers. The majority of these hazardous lakes have witnessed a high growth rate, which suggests that the GLOF hazard of these lakes is going to increase further in the future owing to the warming climatic trends. This study will act as a precursor to a more detailed and in-depth GLOF risk assessment of highly hazardous glacial lakes in the region and will help in developing mitigation strategies for any potential disasters in future.
Society of Earth Scientists series, 2022
International Journal of Agriculture System
The vast area of paddy crop in Anantnag district (Jammu and Kashmir) has been converted for the c... more The vast area of paddy crop in Anantnag district (Jammu and Kashmir) has been converted for the construction of houses, roads and especially for horticultural purposes. The cultivation of paddy has been an old cultural heritage of Anantnag district as well as for the Kashmir valley as a whole, while the farmers are increasingly finding it less profitable in recent times. The present study used both primary (Survey) and secondary data from different sources with an aim to highlight the issue of diversifying of food crops (Paddy) towards cash crops (Apple) in district Anantnag. The findings from the study reveal that 6908 hectares of agricultural cropped area is shifted towards the horticultural cropped area, as agricultural crops (paddy) have low comparative advantage over horticultural (Apple). Paddy land under surveyed farmers has registered a significant decrease from 330 canals (83.75%) in 2000-01 to 158 canals (40.11%) in 2014-15, therefore showing an absolute change of -172 can...
Remote Sensing
Climate warming-induced glacier recession has resulted in the development and rapid expansion of ... more Climate warming-induced glacier recession has resulted in the development and rapid expansion of glacial lakes in the Himalayan region. The increased melting has enhanced the susceptibility for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the region. The catastrophic failure of potentially dangerous glacial lakes could be detrimental to human life and infrastructure in the adjacent low-lying areas. This study attempts to assess the GLOF hazard of Gangabal lake, located in the Upper Jhelum basin of Kashmir Himalaya, using the combined approaches of remote sensing, GIS, and dam break modeling. The parameters, such as area change, ice thickness, mass balance, and surface velocity of the Harmukh glacier, which feeds Gangabal lake, were also assessed using multitemporal satellite data, GlabTop-2, and the Cosi–Corr model. In the worst-case scenario, 100% volume (73 × 106 m3) of water was considered to be released from the lake with a breach formation time (bf) of 40 min, breach width (bw) of 6...
Earth systems and environment, Oct 14, 2022
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
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Papers by Dr. Rayees Ahmed
Eastern Himalayas. This phenomenon has consequently resulted
in the development of new glacial lakes and expansion of the
existing ones. The outbursts of these lakes has the potential to
cause flashfloods with negative impacts for the downstream com
munity. This study used Remote Sensing data products to
develop a glacial lake database of Dibang River Basin for the year
2020. The multi-temporal Landsat series data was used to exam
ine the surficial changes in glacial lakes larger than 0.1km2. The
key parameters derived from previous glacial lake studies were
used to identify the Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes (PDGLs)
and conduct their hazard assessment. Finally, the Indian Monsoon
Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) data was used to analyze
the Temperature and Precipitation trends from 1980 to 2020 to
understand timpact of climate change on lake behaviour. Our
f
indings reveal that the study region has 403 glacial lakes with a
total area of 55.73km2 in 2020. The area of selected glacial lakes
has increased from 29.96km2 in 1985 to 32.56km2 in 2020 at a
rate of 0.07km2 per year. Twelve (12) lakes were identified as
PDGLs in the study region. After applying the weighted index
method, 4 lakes among them were categorized as high, 5 as
medium and 3 as low hazard glacial lakes. The Mann Kendal test
of Tmin,Tmax and Tmean revealed an increasing trend with a Z stat
ics value of >0, whereas mean precipitation on the contrary
showed a significant decreasing trend with a Z statics value of
<0. The changes in climatic variables (i.e., temperature and pre
cipitation) indicate that the warmer conditions prevail in the
region, causing glacier shrinking and retreat, formation of new
lakes and expansion of existing ones. Hence, we propose the con
tinuous monitoring and assessment of high hazard glacial lakes
for the prevention and mitigation of Glacier Lake Outburst Floods
(GLOFs) in the study region.
Eastern Himalayas. This phenomenon has consequently resulted
in the development of new glacial lakes and expansion of the
existing ones. The outbursts of these lakes has the potential to
cause flashfloods with negative impacts for the downstream com
munity. This study used Remote Sensing data products to
develop a glacial lake database of Dibang River Basin for the year
2020. The multi-temporal Landsat series data was used to exam
ine the surficial changes in glacial lakes larger than 0.1km2. The
key parameters derived from previous glacial lake studies were
used to identify the Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes (PDGLs)
and conduct their hazard assessment. Finally, the Indian Monsoon
Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) data was used to analyze
the Temperature and Precipitation trends from 1980 to 2020 to
understand timpact of climate change on lake behaviour. Our
f
indings reveal that the study region has 403 glacial lakes with a
total area of 55.73km2 in 2020. The area of selected glacial lakes
has increased from 29.96km2 in 1985 to 32.56km2 in 2020 at a
rate of 0.07km2 per year. Twelve (12) lakes were identified as
PDGLs in the study region. After applying the weighted index
method, 4 lakes among them were categorized as high, 5 as
medium and 3 as low hazard glacial lakes. The Mann Kendal test
of Tmin,Tmax and Tmean revealed an increasing trend with a Z stat
ics value of >0, whereas mean precipitation on the contrary
showed a significant decreasing trend with a Z statics value of
<0. The changes in climatic variables (i.e., temperature and pre
cipitation) indicate that the warmer conditions prevail in the
region, causing glacier shrinking and retreat, formation of new
lakes and expansion of existing ones. Hence, we propose the con
tinuous monitoring and assessment of high hazard glacial lakes
for the prevention and mitigation of Glacier Lake Outburst Floods
(GLOFs) in the study region.