Abstract
Monthly temperature series for Central Europe back to AD 1500 are developed from documentary index series from Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic (1500–1854) and 11 instrumental temperature records (1760–2007). Documentary evidence from the Low Countries, the Carpathian Basin and Poland are used for cross-checking for earlier centuries. The instrumental station records are corrected for inhomogeneities, including insufficient radiation protection of early thermometers and the urban heat island effect. For overlapping period (1760–1854), the documentary data series correlate with instrumental temperatures, most strongly in winter (86% explained variance in January) and least in autumn (56% in September). For annual average temperatures, 81% of the variance is explained. Verification statistics indicate high reconstruction skill for most months and seasons. The last 20 years (since 1988) stand out as very likely the warmest 20-year period, accounting for the calibration uncertainty and decreases in proxy data quality before the calibration period. The new reconstruction displays a previously unobserved long-term decrease in DJF, MAM and JJA temperature variability over last five centuries. Compiled monthly, seasonal and annual series can be used to improve the robustness of gridded large-scale European temperature reconstructions and possible impact studies. Further improvement of the reconstruction would be achieved if documentary data from other European countries are further developed.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alexandersson H (1986) A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. J Climatol 6:661–675. doi:10.1002/joc.3370060607
Alexandersson H, Eriksson B (1989) Climate fluctuations in Sweden 1860–1987. SMHI reports meteorology and climatology 58. SMHI, Norrköping
Auer I, Böhm R, Jurkovic A, Lipa W, Orlik A, Potzmann R, Schöner W, Ungersböck M, Matulla C, Briffa K, Jones P, Efthymiadis D, Brunetti M, Nanni T, Maugeri M, Mercalli L, Mestre O, Moisselin JM, Begert M, Müller-Westermeier G, Kveton V, Bochnicek O, Stastny P, Lapin M, Szalai S, Szentimrey T, Cegnar T, Dolinar M, Gajic-Capka M, Zaninovic K, Majstorovic Z, Nieplova E (2007) HISTALP—historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the Greater Alpine Region. Int J Climatol 27(1):17–46. doi:10.1002/joc.1377
Balling RC, Vose RS, Weber GR (1998) Analysis of long-term European temperature records: 1751–1995. Clim Res 10(3):193–200. doi:10.3354/cr010193
Bartholy J, Pongrácz R, Molnár Z (2004) Classification and analysis of past climate information based on historical documentary sources for the Carpathian basin. Int J Climatol 24(14):1759–1776. doi:10.1002/joc.1106
Begert M, Schlegel T, Kirchhofer W (2005) Homogeneous temperature and precipitation series of Switzerland from 1864 to 2000. Int J Climatol 25(15):65–80. doi:10.1002/joc.1118
Böhm R, Jones PD, Hiebl J, Brunetti M, Frank D, Maugeri M (2009) The early instrumental warm-bias: a solution for long central European temperatures series 1760–2007. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9649-4
Brázdil R (1996) Reconstructions of past climate from historical sources in the Czech Lands. In: Jones PD, Bradley RS, Jouzel J (eds) Climatic variations and forcing mechanisms of the last 2000 years. Springer, Berlin, pp 409–431
Brázdil R, Pfister C, Wanner H, von Storch H, Luterbacher J (2005) Historical climatology in Europe—the state of the art. Clim Change 70:363–430. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5924-1
Brázdil R, Černušák T, Řezníčková L (2008) Weather information in the diaries of the Premonstratensian Abbey at Hradisko, in the Czech Republic, 1693–1783. Weather 63(7):201–207. doi:10.1002/wea.264
Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Schweingruber FH, Jones PD, Shiyatov SG, Vaganov EA (2002) Tree-ring width and density data around the Northern Hemisphere: part 1, local and regional climate signals. Holocene 12:737–757. doi:10.1191/0959683602hl587rp
Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Haris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res 111:D12106. doi:10.1029/2005JD006548
Burri M, Rutishauser T (2008) Pflanzenphänologische Beobachtungen—Dank Johann Jakob Sprünglis Aufzeichnungen zu gesteigerten Ernten und neuen Erkenntnissen in der Klimaforschung. In: Stuber M, Moser P, Gerber-Visser G, Pfister C (eds) Oekonomische und Gemeinnützige Gesellschaft des Kantons Bern 1759–2009. Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern (accepted)
Camuffo D, Jones P (eds) (2002) Improved understanding of past climatic variability from early daily European instrumental sources. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht Boston London
Cook ER, Kairiukstis LA (eds) (1990) Methods of dendrochronology: applications in the environmental sciences. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht
Cook ER, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1994) Spatial regression methods in dendroclimatology: a review and comparison of two techniques. Int J Climatol 14(4):379–402. doi:10.1002/joc.3370140404
Dobrovolný P, Brázdil R, Valášek H, Kotyza O, Macková J, Halíčková M (2009) A standard paleoclimatological approach to temperature reconstruction in historical climatology: an example from the Czech Republic, AD 1718–2007. Int J Climatol 29(10):1478–1492. doi:10.1002/joc.1789
Eddy JA (1976) The Maunder minimum. Science 192:1189–1202. doi:10.1126/science.192.4245.1189
Esper J, Frank DC, Wilson RJS, Briffa KR (2005) Effect of scaling and regression on reconstructed amplitude for the past millennium. Geophys Res Lett 32:L07711. doi:10.1029/2004GL021236
Flohn H (1979) Zwei bayerische Wetterkalender aus der Reformationszeit. Wiss Mitt Meteor Inst München 35:173–177
Frank D, Büntgen U, Böhm R, Maugeri M, Esper J (2007a) Warmer early instrumental measurements versus colder reconstructed temperatures: shooting at a moving target. Quat Sci Rev 26:3298–3310. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.08.002
Frank D, Esper J, Cook ER (2007b) Adjustment for proxy number and coherence in a large-scale temperature reconstruction. Geophys Res Lett 34:L16709. doi:10.1029/2007GL030571
Glaser R (1997) On the course of temperature in central Europe since the year 1000 AD. Hist Soc Res 22:59–87
Glaser R (2001) Klimageschichte Mitteleuropas. 1000 Jahre Wetter, Klima, Katastrophen. Primus Verlag, Darmstadt
Glaser R (2008) Klimageschichte Mitteleuropas. 1200 Jahre Wetter, Klima, Katastrophen. Primus Verlag, Darmstadt
Glaser R, Riemann D (2009) A thousand year record of climate variation for Central Europe at a monthly resolution. J Quat Sci 24(5):437–449
Glaser R, Stangl H (2004) Climate and floods in Central Europe since AD 1000: data, methods, results and consequences. Surv Geophys 25:485–510. doi:10.1007/s10712-004-6201-y
Gouirand I, Linderholm H, Moberg A, Wohlfarth B (2008) On the spatiotemporal characteristics of Fennoscandian tree-ring based summer temperature reconstructions. Theor Appl Climatol 91:1–25. doi:10.1007/s00704-007-0311-7
Guiot J, Nicault A, Rathgeber C, Edouard JL, Guibal F, Pichard G, Till C (2005) Last-millenium summer temperature variations in western Europe based on proxy data. Holocene 15:489–500. doi:10.1191/0959683605hl819rp
Jones PD (2001) Early European instrumental record. In: Jones PD, Ogilvie AEJ, Davies TD, Briffa K (eds) History and climate: memories of the future? Kluwer Academic Press, New York, pp 55–77
Jones PD, Briffa KR (2006) Unusual climate in northwest Europe during the period 1730 to 1745 based on instrumental and documentary data. Clim Change 79:361–379. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9078-6
Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR, Folland CK, Horton EB, Alexander LV, Parker DE, Rayner NA (2001) Adjusting for sampling density in grid box land and ocean surface temperature series. J Geophys Res 106(D4):3371–3380
Leijonhufvud L, Wilson R, Moberg A (2008) Documentary data as proxy variables for Stockholm late winter to early spring temperatures in the 18th and 19th centuries. Holocene 18:333–343. doi:10.1177/0959683607086770
Leijonhufvud L, Wilson R, Moberg A, Söderberg J, Retsö D, Söderlind U (2009) Five centuries of winter/spring temperatures in Stockholm reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental observations. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9650-y
Luterbacher J, Xoplaki E, Dietrich D, Rickli R, Jacobeit J, Beck C, Gyalistras D, Schmutz C, Wanner H (2002) Reconstruction of sea-level pressure fields over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe back to 1500. Clim Dyn 18:545–561
Luterbacher J, Dietrich D, Xoplaki E, Grosjean M, Wanner H (2004) European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends and extremes since 1500. Science 303:1499–1503. doi:10.1126/science.1093877
Luterbacher J, Liniger MA, Menzel A, Estrella N, Della-Marta PM, Pfister C, Rutishauser T, Xoplaki E (2007) The exceptional European warmth of autumn 2006 and winter 2007: historical context, the underlying dynamics and its phenological impacts. Geophys Res Lett 34:L12704. doi:10.1029/2007GL029951
Luterbacher J, Koenig SJ, Franke J, van der Schrier G, Della-Marta PM, Jacobeit J, Küttel M, Gonzalez-Rouco F, Zorita E, Xoplaki E, Stössel M, Rutishauser T, Wanner H, Pfister C, Brázdil R, Dobrovolný P, Camuffo D, Bertolin C, Moberg A, Leijonhufvud L, Söderberg J, Allan R, Wilson R, Wheeler D, Barriendos M, Glaser R, Riemann D, Nordli PØ, Limanówka D, van Engelen A, Zerefos CS (2009) Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January–April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models. Clim Change (this volume)
Manley G (1974) Central England temperatures: monthly means 1659 to 1973. Q J Royal Meteorol Soc 100:389–405. doi:10.1002/qj.49710042511
Mann ME, Gille E, Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Overpeck JT, Keimig FT, Gross W (2000) Global temperature patterns in past centuries: an interactive presentation. Earth Interact 4:1–29. doi:10.1175/1087-3562(2000)004<0001:GTPIPC>2.3.CO;2
Meier N, Rutishauser T, Pfister C, Wanner H, Luterbacher J (2007) Grape harvest dates as a proxy for Swiss April to August temperature reconstructions back to AD 1480. Geophys Res Lett 34:L20705. doi:10.1029/2007GL031381
Osborn TJ, Briffa KB, Jones PD (1997) Adjusting variance for sample size in tree-ring chronologies and other regional mean timeseries. Dendrochronologia 15:89–99
Pauling A, Luterbacher J, Casty C, Wanner H (2006) Five hundred years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation. Clim Dyn 26(4):387–405. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0090-8
Peterson TC, Easterling DR, Karl TR, Groisman P, Auer I, Böhm R, Plummer N, Nicholis N, Torok S, Vincent L, Tuomenvirta H, Salinger J, Förland EJ, Hanssen-Bauer I, Alexandersson H, Jones P, Parker D (1998) Homogeneity adjustments of in situ climate data: a review. Int J Climatol 18(13):1493–1517. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19981115)18:13<1493::AID-JOC329>3.0.CO;2-T
Pfister C (1981) Die Fluktuationen der Weinmosterträge im schweizerischen Weinland vom 16. bis ins frühe 19. Jahrhundert. Klimatische Ursachen und sozioökonomische Bedeutung. Schweiz. Zeitschrift für Geschichte 31:455–491
Pfister C (1984) Das Klima der Schweiz von 1525 bis 1860 und seine Bedeutung in der Geschichte von Bevölkerung und Landwirtschaft, Academia Helvetica 5, 2 vols. Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern
Pfister C (1992) Monthly temperature and precipitation in central Europe 1525–1979: quantifying documentary evidence on weather and its effects. In: Bradley RS, Jones PD (eds) Climate since AD 1500. Routledge, London, pp 118–143
Pfister C (1999) Wetternachhersage. 500 Jahre Klimavariationen und Naturkatastrophen (1496–1995). Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern
Pfister C, Brázdil R (1999) Climatic variability in sixteenth-century Europe and its social dimension: a synthesis. Clim Change 43(1):5–53. doi:10.1023/A:1005585931899
Pfister C, Brázdil R, Glaser R, Barriendos M, Camuffo D, Deutsch M, Dobrovolný P, Enzi S, Guidoboni E, Kotyza O, Militzer S, Rácz L, Rodrigo FS (1999) Documentary evidence on climate in sixteenth-century Europe. Clim Change 43:55–110. doi:10.1023/A:1005540707792
Pfister C, Luterbacher J, Wanner H, Wheeler D, Brázdil R, Ge Q, Hao Z, Moberg A, Grab S, Rosario del Prieto M (2008) Documentary evidence as climate proxies. In: PAGES (Past Global Changes). Proxy-specific White Paper produced from the PAGES/CLIVAR workshop, Trieste, 2008. http://www.pages-igbp.org/cgibin/WebObjects/products.woa/wa/product?id=331. Accessed 8 May 2009
Przybylak R, Majorowicz J, Wójcik G, Zielski A, Chorążyczewski W, Marciniak K, Nowosad W, Oliński P, Syta K (2005) Temperature changes in Poland from the 16th to the 20th centuries. Int J Climatol 25(6):773–791. doi:10.1002/joc.1149
Rácz L (1999) Climate history of Hungary since 16th century: past, present and future. Centre for Regional studies of Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Pecs
Rutherford S, Mann ME, Osborn TJ, Bradley RS, Briffa KR, Hughes MK, Jones PD (2005) Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions: sensitivity to method, predictor network, target season, and target domain. J Clim 18:2308–2329. doi:10.1175/JCLI3351.1
Schär C, Vidale PL, Lüthi D, Frei C, Häberli C, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C (2004) The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427(6972):332–336. doi:10.1038/nature02300
Shabalova MV, van Engelen AFV (2003) Evaluation of a reconstruction of winter and summer temperatures in the Low countries, AD 764–1998. Clim Change 58(1–2):219–242. doi:10.1023/A:1023474032539
Shindell DT, Schmidt GA, Mann ME, Rind D, Waple A (2001) Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder minimum. Science 294(5549):2149–2152. doi:10.1126/science.1064363
Tuomenvirta H, Alexandersson H, Drebs A, Frich P, Nordli PØ (2000) Trends in Nordic and Arctic temperature extremes and ranges. J Clim 13(5):977–990. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0977:TINAAT>2.0.CO;2
van Engelen AFV, Buisman J, IJnsen F (2000) Reconstruction of the low countries temperature series AD 764–1998. In: Mikami T (ed) Proceedings of the international conference on climate change and variability—past, present and future. Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, pp 151–157
van Engelen AFV, Buisman J, IJnsen F (2001) A millennium of weather, winds and water in the low Countries. In: Jones PD, Ogilvie AEJ, Davies TD, Briffa KR (eds) History and climate: memories of the future? Kluwer Academic Press, New York, pp 101–124
van Vliet LJ, Young IT, Verbeek PW (1998) Recursive Gaussian derivative filters. In: Proceedings of the 14th international conference on pattern recognition, Brisbane, 16–20 August 1998
von Storch H, Zwiers FW (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Wahl E, Ammann C (2007) Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures: examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence. Clim Change 85(1–2):33–69. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9105-7
Wigley TML, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1984) On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. J Clim Appl Meteorol 23(2):201–213. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0201:OTAVOC>2.0.CO;2
Wilson R, Tudhope A, Brohan P, Briffa K, Osborn T, Tett S (2006) 250-years of reconstructed and modeled tropical temperatures. J Geophys Res 111:C10007. doi:10.1029/2005JC003188
Xoplaki E, Luterbacher J, Paeth H, Dietrich D, Steiner N, Grosjean M, Wanner H (2005) European spring and autumn temperature variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium. Geophys Res Lett 32:L15713. doi:10.1029/2005GL023424
Zorita E, Moberg A, Leijonhufvud L, Wilson R, Brázdil R, Dobrovolný P, Luterbacher J, Pfister C, Glaser R, Söderberg J, González-Rouco F (2009) European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary information compared to climate simulations. Clim Change (this volume)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dobrovolný, P., Moberg, A., Brázdil, R. et al. Monthly, seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions for Central Europe derived from documentary evidence and instrumental records since AD 1500. Climatic Change 101, 69–107 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9724-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9724-x