Abstract
The eustatic sea level rise due to global warming is predicted to be about 26–82 cm by the 2100 (5th IPCC 2013), which necessitates identification and protection of vulnerable sections of coasts. The majority of formerly developed coastal vulnerability/sensitivity indices acknowledge that the addition of socioeconomic variables would assist to identify vulnerable areas. The present study therefore is an attempt to develop an integrated coastal vulnerability index (ICVI) for the South Gujarat coast using both physical and socioeconomic variables. Five physical variables, namely coastal slope, Coastal landforms/features, Shoreline change rate, Mean spring tidal range, and Significant wave height, are used for the calculation of the physical vulnerability index (PVI), whereas four variables such as population density of adjacent coastal villages, land use/land cover, proximity to road network and settlement are used to assess the social vulnerability index (SVI). The weights for PVI and SVI are calculated using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method, as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. Based on the weights and scores derived using AHP, vulnerability maps are prepared to demarcate areas with very low, low, medium, high, and very high risk. The PVI and SVI values are integrated to compute the ICVI. According to the criteria of coastal vulnerability, as defined in this study, the coastal segment with low to very low risk of ICVI rating is 52.51 % of the study area, whereas 13.47 % of the coastal stretch falls under the high- to very high-risk category.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Allen JC, Komar PD (2006) Climate controls on US west coast erosion processes. J Coast Res 22:511–529
Boruff BJ, Emrich C, Cutter SL (2005) Erosion hazard vulnerability of US coastal counties. J Coast Res 21:932–942
Census of India (2011). http://censusindia.gov.in/
Christopher VM, Allen MG, David ET, Ellen PB (2012) Coastal hazard vulnerability assessment of sensitive historical sites on Rainsford Island, Boston Harbor, Massachusetts. J Coast Res 28(1A):20–33
Devoy Robert J (1992) Questions of coastal protection and the human response to sea-level rise in Ireland and Britain. Ir Geogr. doi:10.1080/00750779209478736
Diez PG, Perillo GME, Piccolo MC (2007a) Vulnerability to sea-level rise on the coast of Buenos Aires province. J Coast Res 23:119–126
Diez PG, Perillo GM, Piccolo MC (2007b) Vulnerability to sea-level rise on the coast of the Buenos Aires Province. J Coastal Res 23(1):119–126
Dilley Robert S, Harun Rasid (1990) Human response to coastal erosion: Thunder Bay, Lake Superior. J Coast Res 6:779–788
Doukakis E (2005) Coastal vulnerability and risk parameters. Eur Water 11(12):3–7
Forman EH, Goss SI (2001) The analytical hierarchy process—an exposition. Oper Res 49(4):469–487
George Clark et al (1998) Assessing the vulnerability of coastal communities to extreme storms: the case of Revere, MA., USA. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 3:59–82
Gornitz V (1990) Vulnerability of the East Coast, U.S.A. to future sea level rise. J Coast Res 9:201–237
Gornitz V (1991) Global coastal hazards from future sea level rise. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 89:379–398
Gorokhovich Y, Leiserowitz A, Dugan D (2014) Integrating coastal vulnerability and community-based subsistence resource mapping in Northwest Alaska. J Coast Res 30(1):158–169 ISSN 0749-0208
Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, Lo K, Lea DW, Medina-Elizade M (2006) Global temperature change. Proc Nat Acad Sci 103(39):14288–14293
Hughes P, Brundrit GB (1992) An index to assess South Africa’s vulnerability to sea-level rise. S Afr J Sci 88:308–311
IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007 the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1–18
IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate Change 2013 the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Ju CY, Jia YG, Shan HX, Tang CW, Ma WJ (2012) GIS-based coastal area suitability assessment of geo-environmental factors in Laoshan district, Qingdao. Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 12:143–150
Klein RJ, Nicholls RJ (1999) Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change. Ambio 28:182–187
Klein RJ, Reese S, Sterr H (2000) Climate change and coastal zones: an overview of the state-of-the-art on regional and local vulnerability. In: Giupponi C, Shechther M (eds) Climate change in the Mediterranean: socio-economic perspective of impacts vulnerability and adaptation. Edward Elgar, Camberley, pp 245–278
McLaughlin S, McKenna J, Cooper JAG (2002) Socio-economic data in coastal vulnerability indices: constraints and opportunities. J Coast Res 36:487–497
Mclean RF et al (2001) Coastal zones and marine ecosystems. In: McCarthy JJ (ed) Climate change 2001 impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 343–379
Meehl GA, Washington WM, Collins WD, Arblaster JM, Hu A, Buja LE, Strand WG, Teng H (2005) How much more global warming and sea level rise. Curr Sci 307:1769–1772
Murali RM, Ankita M, Amrita S, Vethamony P (2013) Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India using analytical hierarchical process. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci Discuss 1:509–559
Nicholls RJ (2003) Case study on sea level rise impacts. Prepared for OECD workshop on the benefits of climate policy: Improving information for policy makers: December 12–13, 2002, working party on global and structural policies. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris Web
Nicholls RJ, Lowe JA (2004) Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas. Glob Environ Change 14:229–244
Ozyurt G, Ergin A (2010) Improving coastal vulnerability assessments to sea-level rise: a new indicatorbased methodology for decision makers. J Coast Res 26(2):265–273 ISSN 0749-0208
Pendleton EA, Thieler ER, Williams SJ (2004) Coastal vulnerability assessment of Cape Hettaras National Seashore (CAHA) to sea level rise. US Geological Survey Open File Report, US, p 1064
Pendleton EA, Thieler ER, Williams SJ (2006) Coastal vulnerability assessment of Glacier Bay National Park to sea-level rise: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2005–1248, Available online at URL: pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1248
Rao KN, Subraelu P, Rao TV, Malini BH, Ratheesh R, Bhattacharya S, Rajawat AS, Ajai (2008) Sea-level rise and coastal vulnerability: an assessment of Andhra Pradesh coast, India through remote sensing and GIS. J Coast Conserv 12:195–207
Saaty TL (1977) A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures. J Math Psychol 15:234–281
Saaty TL (2001) Fundamentals of decision making and priority theory, Pittsburgh, RWS Publications, ISBN No-0962031763
Saaty TL, Vargas LG (1991) Prediction, projection and forecasting: applications of the analytic hierarchy process in economics, finance, politics, games and sports, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, p 251
Sterr H (2008) Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to sea-level rise for the coastal zone of Germany. J Coast Res 24(2):380–393 ISSN 0749-0208
Szlafsztein C, Sterr H (2007) A GIS-based vulnerability assessment of coastal natural hazards, state of Pará, Brazil. J Coast Res 11:53–66
Thieler ER, Hammar-Klose ES 1999 National assessment of coastal vulnerability to future sea-level rise: preliminary results for the U.S. Atlantic coast. U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 99–593. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/of99-593/
Thieler ER, and Hammar-Klose ES (2000) national assessment of coastal vulnerability to future sea-level rise: preliminary results for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast. U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 00-179, 1 sheet. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/of00-179/
Thieler ER, Himmelstoss EA, Zichichi JL, and Ergul Ayhan (2009) Digital shoreline analysis system (DSAS) version 4.0—An ArcGIS extension for calculating shoreline change: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008–1278
Torresan S, Critto A, Rizzi J, Marcomini A (2012) Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:2347–2368
Unnikrishnan AS, Shankar D (2007) Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates? Glob Planet Change 57:301–307
Wood R (2008) Natural ups and downs. Nature 453:43–45
Acknowledgments
The authors express their sincere gratitude to Shri A S Kiran Kumar, Director, SAC, Ahmedabad, for providing required data and support. The authors are thankful to Dr. Ramesh Ramachandran, Director, and Dr. Purvaja Ramachandran, Scientist-G, NCSCM, Chennai, for providing valuable guidance, support and constant encouragement.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mahapatra, M., Ramakrishnan, R. & Rajawat, A.S. Coastal vulnerability assessment using analytical hierarchical process for South Gujarat coast, India. Nat Hazards 76, 139–159 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1491-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1491-y