Graduate Research Assistant, Prasad Thota, presented an iPoster at the annual Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, held in Washington, D.C., from December 9 - 13. 

In summary, the study investigates the mechanisms influencing warm-season precipitation variability in the Northern Great Plains (NGP) and explores its predictability on seasonal to sub-seasonal timescales. Using a modified Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) clustering technique, the NGP is identified as a distinct region for examining large-scale climate dynamics. Analysis of Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) shows that wet years are driven by moisture influx from the Great Plains Low-Level Jet (GPLLJ), while dry years feature reversed moisture transport toward the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, significant correlations between Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the Atlantic and mid-latitude Pacific and NGP precipitation highlight their potential as predictors. A proposed Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework integrates these climate drivers and regional moisture dynamics to improve seasonal precipitation forecasts, providing valuable insights for water resource management and drought planning in the NGP.