:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Dec 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 23-Dec 25 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 23-Dec 25 2024
Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec 25
00-03UT 2.33 2.67 2.33
03-06UT 2.67 3.00 2.67
06-09UT 3.67 2.33 2.67
09-12UT 2.00 2.33 2.00
12-15UT 1.00 1.67 2.00
15-18UT 2.00 2.33 0.67
18-21UT 2.00 2.33 2.00
21-00UT 2.67 2.67 2.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 23-Dec 25 2024
Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec 25
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There remains a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 23-25 Dec.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 22 2024 2049 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 23-Dec 25 2024
Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec 25
R1-R2 65% 65% 65%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: M-class flare activity is likely (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate), with
a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3/Strong), over 23-25
Dec.
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