:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2024 Dec 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2024
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/1414Z from Region 3934 (N13E47). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 794 km/s at 22/1817Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 22/0001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
21/2135Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 22/0625Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 681 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Dec,
24 Dec, 25 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 223
Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 220/220/215
90 Day Mean 22 Dec 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 008/008-008/010-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/40/25
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