Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties

The 2016 US presidential contest, and Donald Trump's election, present challenges to political science. This special issue explores some of what political science got "right" and "wrong" in terms of anticipating, or failing to anticipate, Trump's success. It explores some of what the discipline may learn from the 2016 election by asking what Trump's candidacy illuminates about the success and limitations of literature on elections, public opinion, and parties. These papers touch on the uniqueness of Trump's candidacy, but it is important to start by placing the 2016 election in context. As Endres, Panagopoulos, and Weinschenk (2018) document, polling throughout the election suggested Hillary Clinton would win, and, indeed, Clinton won the popular vote with a 2% margin, earning nearly 3 million more votes than Trump. The Electoral College being what it is, if less than 40,000 votes flipped differently in three states 1 that Trump narrowly won, Clinton could have been President. Under that scenario, one that most observers expected, this issue would certainly be different: perhaps examining the continuity of Barack Obama legacy, Obama's enduring multi-racial coalition, the embrace of globalism, and, most certainly, the role of gender in the election of the first woman as US president. Trump would have played a role in that counterfactual issue, but not the starring role. The odd context of the 2016 US presidential election It is important to consider the election in the context of widespread dissatisfaction with the major candidates. Exit polls had 54% rating Clinton unfavorably, and 60% rating Trump unfavorably. A quarter of voters were motivated by dislike of the candidates; most of those voted Trump. Nearly a third of Trump voters found him not honest or trustworthy, and 23% of Trump voters found him unqualified. 2 This suggests widespread dissatisfaction, as

Middle East Institute for Research and Strategic Studies, 2016

Amidst controversy, Trump won the elections in a landslide victory over Clinton, 232 to 306

IGDS Working Papers, 2020

On the announcement of Donald Trump's Presidential victory in November 2016, I published a paper entitled "The triumph of Trump and the failure of the intellectuals". I argued that the rise of Trump to power and the failure of the intellectuals in the media and academia to predict this momentous event, had similar origins. The failure of orthodox social scientists to develop a general dynamic theory of human society had not only contributed to the economic conditions (through flawed policy advice) that Trump exploited, but also to their inability to envisage this eventuality. My 2016 paper attempted to explain these outcomes in terms of the exhaustion of America's old dynamic strategy, the resulting rise in strategic frustration, and the critical need to find an elusive replacement dynamic strategy. This was based on my 'dynamic-strategy theory' and historical examination. In the current paper I expand on this explanation, review Trump's term as President, evaluate his re-election prospects, and discuss the implications for America's future. I conclude that America is at an historical crossroad and that its future is precariously placed. Since I wrote this paper, Donald Trump has been defeated by Joe Biden at the November 2020 Presidential election. What impact will this have on America's future? See my latest paper "America makes its choice of futures! But will it catch the next great wave of history?". In November 2024 Trump was returned to the White House. What does the future hold for America and the world? See my latest paper “Make America Great Again. The strategic roadmap”. IGDS Working Paper # 49 (November 2024).

Introduction This decade has been characterised by dramatic changes, from Arab spring, the spectacular Brexit effects, and unprecedented American presidential elections that shook the entire world, and increased stress disorder among Americans themselves (APA,2016). In USA particularly, as American voters exercised their rights to vote, in a one of the most democratic fashion in the world, the entire world was taken off guard to learn that Mr. Trump is the next President of the most powerful country on earth-USA! Hard to believe it, too good to be true, shocking, the most important day of a brighter future of Americans, or in a simplified term: A mixed emotions and feelings. However, due to his perceived strong ultranationalist position, unpredictability, enthusiasm among his core supporters and his tough political fights against all who opposed him, including his own party members ( GOP), together with his controversies and dirty campaign he ran against his 16 opponents in GOP primaries, and later even dirtier and muddy political fight when he was running against his democratic opponent, he become more concern of fantasy to many, in USA and in the world. Most of all, he emerged out of nowhere, without any political experience, nor military service, knocked out all of his GOP opponents who were more politically qualified, with higher education than him, such as Dr.Ben Carson ( a well respected paediatric surgeon), Dr. Rand Paul, and big names like Jeb Bush ( George W. Bush brother, and son of George H.Bush), and ultimately a big surprising knockout against one of the most politically experienced-Hilary Clinton. However, weeks before election, Trump had been accused by more than 10 women for sexual assault, and even worse, a Hollywood video released, where Trump was on hot mic bragging about how he assaulted women by starting by “touching the pussy”( Trump said), because he was a celebrity. However, regardless all odds, without any political experience, with flip and flops on may issues or without clarity at all, had lost all 3 presidential debates to Hilary Clinton, his wife Melania accused of illegal earning when she was a model ( she did not have a work permit. Allegations claim),and for the first time in history of USA presidential elections Trump refused to release his tax return ( “None of your business”-Once he told a journalist), he surprised American people and the world with a clean winning to become the 45th US President. Donald Trump has tapped into anger of many unhappy American people, who erratically celebrated his victory, praised by KKK group that marched in celebratory event to Trump’s election, and even more so, young children in middle and high school who chanted “ BUILD THE WALL” against Mexican origin classmate, while other students were chanting “WHITE POWER” holding Trump’s sign. However, his [Trump] election to president angered more on the other hand, who subsequently took on the street of many cities in USA right after his election. He has said more than hundreds of things (By Jenna Johnson, Washington Post, January 22-2016; Java Lange August 4th 2015/ The Week) that put many at an ease, swore more than angry bad or The Simpsons (cartoons show), confronted his own party and threatened to breakaway should they bother him, proposed unacceptable ideas such as waterboarding, stop and frisk, banning Muslims from entering USA “until we figure out what the HELL is going on”, ending gun free zones such as schools, threatened to punish women for their own productive choices and much more. Many of annalists possibly including myself said: This is it! Given the fact that minority such as Black Americans, latinos and Native americans and women don’t like these ideas, and no single president has even won election in this country without a sizeable percentage of the minority groups, Hilary Clinton is the next president of the United States of America. But “SURPRISE”!!!We were all “ WRONG”. How did he get away with it? How did he win and leave many people scratching their heads, despite all polls suggesting his opponent -Hilary- a winner with possibility of a “landslide victory”? This paper will highlight some plausible psychological observations and factors that catapulted Trump to the most powerful and relevant position in the world, oval office!

Introductıon 2016 Presidential elections of U.S resulted in a way that neither political analysts nor the polls could predict. As a New York Times, infographic study shows, almost all of the polls were predicting not an easy but a comfortable victory for Hillary Clinton, who was the nominee of Democratic Party (NYTimes, 2015). However, with the victory of an outsider populist, Donald J. Trump who was speaking off a very unusual language and promising offensive changes such as building a Wall to the Mexican border, the end result has been a shock not just in U.S but also all around the world within people who could not provide a structural analysis for this. Although hundreds of studies have been made after the election of Trump, it is still hard to distinguish between main reasons, factors and consequences that led to such an unpredicted and unprecedented process in a country where liberal democracy was considered as the absolute system politically and socially. In this regard, by using the studies conducted after elections and social, historical analysis that we have, this paper is aimed to briefly discuss and analyze the factors that brought Trump into power. At that point, it should be reminded that framework that we are analyzing-Trump's victory-should not just be considered as an ordinary political change but rather a challenge to very roots of American democracy and capitalism. Thus, it is appropriate to problematize the situation as crises of American liberal democracy and capitalism. Overview In my judgment, If we are ever to understand Trump's political success, we should not consider one single factor as the absolute cause but rather we should have come up with more than one variable which might be telescoped to each other, to be able to provide a structural analysis. To do not leave space for ambiguity, we should also provide an analysis of what might stimulate those factors to be materialized as transformative and challenging phenomenon in terms of the political order. By considering this, I believe that there were three type factors which led to Trump's discourse toward a victory. Those factors are consist of economic factors that are at the very base of the issue in a way that political revolt would not occur without them, social/cultural factors that were form of existence of the political mobilization of Trumpism and factors that are related to U.S political elite and system which created and reproduced the deadlock. Before explaining these factors in detail, it should also be clearly emphasized at the beginning that main reason why those factors rose and reproduced was within the context third reason: the Political elite of U.S was unable and

2016

Iran Daily Newspaper

Are you surprised by the choice of Donald Trump? The election of President Donald Trump was never out of the question and he clearly presented a strong electoral threat to the American political establishment-whether to the Democratic or Republican parties. His election, while surprising, was always in the realm of possibility, especially as popular disillusionment against the current state of affairs grew. While the election was shocking to the majority of political analysts in the United States and the world, a longer view of America's history reveals that anti-establishment candidates have been elected at critical

The 2016 United States Presidential Election came on the 8 th November and gone with Donald Trump haven been declared as 'President Elect " and has assumed office on the 20 th January 2017 as the 45 th President of the United States of America. Donald Trump's victory during the primary election of Republican Party and the U.S presidential election from nowhere continue to beat the imagination of people globally. This study was carried out using qualitative content analysis and relied heavily on the texts from social media network comments as well as on print/electronic media publications. These includes twitter, facebook, radio and television and cable news, documentary sources of available literatures which were used to provide answer to the surprising ongoing question of " how Donald Trump did became President-elect in the United States of America from nowhere? In the concluding remarks, the paper based on strong findings from the literature texts consulted, tenaciously holds that Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 United States Presidential election is reliably attributable to his stern promises to make America great again coupled with the overwhelming support he got from the white voters as well as his undeniable wide coverage of campaign and his selection by the United States Electoral College based on merit amongst other factors

The urge is almost irresistible. The question presses, “What does the 2016 election say about race relations in the United States?” And the answer seems simple: Trump’s campaign allowed for, even encouraged, white supremacist voices and discourses to filter back into the mainstream media, and whites voted for him in large numbers. Therefore, white racism put Trump in the White House. But not so fast.

The rise of Donald Trump as a serious political contender for the President of the United States has baffled political experts, party establishment, media pundits and ordinary citizens in the US, and captivated the attention of the world. This survey article attempts to provide some of the reasons why Trump has been successful in the Republican Party primariesélection cycle, and why he is to be taken seriously in his quests for the nomination of his party and thus the Presidency of the United States. The article concludes by reiterating the reasons why Mr. Trump has become the GOP front-runner in these primaries and why he will be a serious candidate for the President of the United States if he is the nominee of his Party.