Event Summary

On November 10, AEI’s John Fortier, Ruy Teixeira, and Chris Stirewalt and North Star Opinion Research’s Whit Ayres recapped the results of the 2022 midterm elections and explored its consequences.

Despite outstanding votes in states such as California and Arizona, Dr. Fortier predicted a small majority for the Republicans in the 118th Congress. He noted that vote totals did swing toward Republicans, but not by a large enough number to result in greater seat gains.

Dr. Teixeira observed that candidate quality severely hindered Republicans’ efforts to win a majority in the Senate. He mused that this may be good for Republicans, who may reconsider their political relationship with President Donald Trump, whereas Democrats may be lulled into a false sense of triumphant complacency.

Mr. Stirewalt observed that, in state elections, having abortion on the ballot or campaign benefited Democratic incumbents in difficult races.

Mr. Ayres observed that while low presidential approval numbers and negative indicators on tangible issues such as inflation, crime, and border security benefited Republicans, the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling and poor Republican candidate quality benefited Democrats. The combination of these and other competing forces resulted in a postelection political landscape that closely mirrors the status quo.

—Jaehun Lee

Event Description

After a back-and-forth midterm election year, AEI’s Election Watch team gathers for a final time to analyze the 2022 midterm results and look ahead to the 2024 presidential contest.

The panelists will discuss results in key House, Senate, and gubernatorial races—and what they mean for the next two years of the Biden administration. They will also examine what issues mattered most to voters and the changing preferences of demographic groups.

The AEI Election Watch program was established in 1982 and is the longest-running political analysis program of its kind.