FIGURE F4a. Predicted and observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the Niño 3  region from the NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03). The forecasts consist of 40 forecast members from 09-28 SEP 2005 initial conditions. The ensemble mean of all 40 forecast members is shown by the thick curve, individual members by thin curves, and observation by dotted curve.