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Monday, October 20, 2008
|
| 7:30 am - 8:15 am |
Registration |
| 8:15 am - 8:30 am |
Welcome Remarks |
Wayne Higgins; CPC/NCEP |
| 8:30 am - 8:45 am |
Welcome Remarks |
Mike Hayes; NDMC/UNL |
| 8:45 am - 9:00 am |
Welcome Remarks |
David Legler; US CLIVAR |
Session 1: Review of Recent Climate Conditions and Forecasts
Chairperson: Wayne Higgins; CPC
|
| 9:00 am – 9:20 am |
An overview of the evolution of the 2007/08 La Nina |
Michelle L’Heureux |
| 9:20 am - 9:40 am |
The 2007/08 La Niña Cycle: Evolution, Prediction and Remote Oceanic Influences |
Yan Xue, Boyin Huang, Wanqui Wang, Arun Kumar,
Philip Pegion and Michelle L'Heureux |
| 9:40 am - 10:00 am |
MJO Event of November 2007- February 2008: Assessment of Global Impacts and Real-time Predictions |
Jon Gottschalck, Qin Zhang, Wanqui Wang, Yan Xue, Arun Kumar, Michelle L’Heureux, Mike Halpert |
| 10:00 am - 10:30 am |
Coffee Break |
| 10:30 am - 10:50 am |
Review of hurricane activity in 2008 |
Gerry Bell |
| 10:50 am - 11:10 am |
Hydro-climate conditions over the United States for the water year 2008 |
Kingtse Mo and Wanru Wu |
| 11:10 am - 11:30 am |
The CPC Global Monsoon Monitoring Activity |
Wassila Thiaw |
| 11:30 am - 11:50 am |
Overview of the 2008 North American Monsoon: Introducing the CPC NAME Forecast Forum |
Wei Shi, Lindsey Long, Jae E. Schemm and D. Gochis |
| 11:50 am - 12:10 pm |
Verification of IRI's seasonal climate forecasts, 1997 to present |
Anthony Barnston |
| 12:10 pm - 1:10 pm |
Lunch |
Session 2.1: Reanalyses and Prediction Systems
Chair Person: Arun Kumar
|
| 1:10 pm - 1:30 pm |
Status of the NOAA CFSRR project |
S. Saha,and the NCEP CFSRR team |
| 1:30 pm - 1:50 pm |
Validation and status of NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) |
Michael Bosilovich, Siegfried Schubert, Steve Bloom, Michele Rienecker and the GMO MERRA validation team |
| 1:50 pm - 2:10 pm |
International Multi model ensemble |
Huug van den Dool and Steven Lord |
| 2:10 pm - 2:30 pm |
Geographic distribution of Skill of Official and Objective 3-month Outlooks from 1995 to 2005 |
Ed O'Lenic |
| 2:30 pm - 2:50 pm |
Seasonal Prediction Research and Development at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology |
Guomin Wang |
| 2:50 pm - 3:10 pm |
Coffee Break |
Session 2.2: Climate Variability : ENSO, MJO and Teleconnections
Chair Person: Jae E. Schemm
|
| 3:10 pm - 3:30 pm |
The Frequency Distribution of Daily Precipitation over the United States |
Emily Becker |
| 3:30 pm - 3:50 pm |
Synoptic-scale convective environment climatology by ENSO phase in the north central U.S. |
Barbara E. Mayes, Joshua M. Boustead, Jeffrey S. Boyne, Glenn R. Lussky, Craig Cogil, Richard S. Ryrholm |
| 3:50 pm - 4:10 pm |
The Great Floods of 1993 and 2008: The Roles of ENSO and the MJO/GWO |
Edward Berry and Klaus Weickmann |
| 4:10 pm - 4:30 pm |
Oceanic Surface Wind in Satellite Retrievals, NCEP Reanalyses, GFS, and CFS |
Sarah Levinson, Wanqiu Wang, and Pingping Xie |
| 4:30 pm - 4:50 pm |
Intensification of summer rainfall variability in the Southeastern United States in recent decades |
Hui Wang, Wenhong Li, and Rong Fu |
| 6:00 pm |
Icebreaker (Morrill Hall) |
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
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Session 2.3: Intraseasonal Oscillations, Tropical Cyclones and Prediction
Chair Person: Jon Gottschalck
|
| 8:30 am - 8:50 am |
A probabilistic view of the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation |
Charles Jones |
| 8:50 am - 9:10 am |
Tropical intraseasonal variability simulated in the NCEP global forecast system and climate forecast system models |
Kyong-Hwan Seo, Wanqiu Wang, Jae-Kyung Schemm |
| 9:10 am - 9:30 am |
Dynamical MJO Hindcast experiments: Sensitivity to Initial Conditions and Air-Sea Coupling |
Yehui Chang, Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, and Duane Waliser |
| 9:30 am - 9:50 am |
Long Term Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific |
Tom Murphree and David Meyer |
| 9:50 am - 10:10 am |
Refinements to Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Prediction from 1 December |
Philip Klotzbach |
| 10:10 am - 10:40 am |
Coffee Break |
| 10:40 am - 11:00 am |
Prospects for subseasonal forecasting of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone activity |
Augustin Vintzileos; T. Marchok; H.-L. Pan and S.J. Lord |
| 11:00 am - 11:20 am |
Application of T382 CFS Forecasts for Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction |
Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Lindsey Long, Suranjana Saha and Shrinivas Moorthi |
| 11:20 am - 11:40 am |
Simulation and Forecast of Subseasonal Variability of Hurricane Activity |
Kathy Pegion, Philip Pegion and Mihai Sirbu |
| 11:40 am - 12:00 pm |
On NOAA's Hurricane Outlooks |
Muthuvel Chelliah |
| 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm |
Lunch |
Session 2.4: Climate Prediction and Predictability
Chair Person: Michael Halpert
|
| 1:00 pm - 1:20 pm |
Winter and Summer Season Forecast Experiments with the NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFS) Using Different Land Models and Different Initial Land States |
Rongqian Yang, Kenneth Mitchell, and Jesse Meng |
| 1:20 pm - 1:40 pm |
Statistical downscaling of NCEP CFS retrospective forecasts (precipitation) over the southeast United States |
Young-Kwon Lim, D. W. Shin, S. Cocke, T. E. LaRow, J. J. O'Brien, and E. P. Chassignet |
| 1:40 pm - 2:00 pm |
Variations of Tropical Cyclones in Relation to Intra-Seasonal Oscillations over the Northwest Pacific Ocean |
Chung-Hsiung Sui, Lin Ching, Ming-Jen Yang, Joo-Hong Kim |
| 2:00 pm - 4:00 pm |
Coffee Break and Poster Session 1 |
| 4:00 pm - 4:20 pm |
Predictability of monthly precipitation and temperature: Role of initial conditions |
Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang, and Arun Kumar |
| 4:40 pm - 5:00 pm |
The impact of the mean state on the ENSO simulation and prediction |
Xiaohua Pan; J.Shukla; Bohua Huang |
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Wednesday, October 22, 2008
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Session 3.1: Status & Prospects for Drought Monitoring & Prediction (Invited Talks)
Chair Person: David Legler
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| 8:30 am - 9:00 am |
Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle: Are we making progress? |
D. Wilhite School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska) |
| 9:00 am - 9:30 am |
NIDIS – what is it? What does it do? |
R. Pulwarty (NIDIS) |
| 9:30 am - 10:00 am |
Drought monitoring – how its done now, how well does it work, what is needed? |
D. LeComte (NOAA-CPC) |
| 10:00 am - 10:30 am |
A multi model assessment of the impact of SST variability on drought: An overview of the US CLIVAR drought working group activities |
S. Schubert (NASA-GSFC) and extended Drought Working group |
| 10:30 am - 11:00 am |
Coffee Break |
Session 3.2: Observing and Monitoring Drought
Chair Person: Rong Fu
|
| 11:00 am - 11:30 pm |
Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response - A View from Georgia |
D.E. Stooksbury (Univ. of Georgia) |
| 11:30 pm - 12:00 pm |
Operational Drought Monitoring and Forecasting at the USDA-NRCS |
T. Pagano (USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service |
| 12:00 pm - 12:30 pm |
Wizards of the Drought Monitor: What's behind the green curtain? |
M. Svoboda (Univ. of Nebraska) |
| 12:30 pm - 2:00 pm |
Lunch |
| 2:00 pm - 2:30 pm |
Drought Working Group analysis of model- produced soil moisture as an index of agricultural drought |
R. Koster (NASA-GSFC) |
| 2:30 pm - 3:00 pm |
Drought Monitoring and Prediction Systems at the University of Washington and Princeton University |
D.P Lettenmaier (Univ. of Washington) |
| 3:00 pm - 3:30 pm |
Lessons learned from the 2000s Western drought: Evolving linkages between research and services |
A. Ray (NOAA-ESRL) |
| 3:30 pm - 4:00 pm |
Coffee Break |
Session 3.3: Drought Impacts, Products, and Meeting User Needs
Chair Person: Michael Hayes
|
| 4:00 pm - 4:30 pm |
Drought monitoring and impacts in the Southwest |
G. Garfin (Univ. of Arizona) |
| 4:30 pm - 5:30 pm |
Discussion |
|
| 6:00 pm - 8:00 pm |
Reception and Poster Session 2 |
|
Thursday, October 23, 2008
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Session 4.1 & 4.2: Simulating Past Droughts, Predicting Present and Future Drought, Drought Predictability, DRICOMP
Chair Person: Siegfried Schubert
|
| 8:30 am - 9:00 am |
Large-scale impact of common SST anomalies on drought and pluvial frequency and occurrence |
K. Findell (NOAA-GFDL) |
| 9:00 am - 9:30 am |
North American Droughts in the 20th Century: Role of SST Variability and Trend |
S. Nigam (Univ. of Maryland) |
| 9:30 am - 10:00 am |
Mechanisms of drought in present and future climate |
J. Meehl (NCAR) |
| 10:00 am - 10:30 am |
Coffee Break |
| 10:30 am - 11:00 am |
The role of the Sahara Low in Sahel Rainfall Variability and Change in the CMIP3 Models |
M. Biasutti (Columbia Univ./LDEO) |
| 11:00 am - 11:30 am |
Hydrodynamics of the Caribbean low-level jet and its relationship to drought |
Kerry Cook and E. K. Vizy (Cornell Univ.) |
| 11:30 am - 1:00 pm |
Lunch |
| 1:00 pm - 3:00 pm |
Poster Session 3 |
| 3:00 pm - 3:30 pm |
Mechanisms of tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic forcing of North American hydroclimate |
R. Seager (Columbia Univ./LDEO) |
| 3:30 pm - 4:00 pm |
Toward a Global Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Capability |
L. Luo (Princeton Univ.) |
| 4:00 pm - 5:00 pm |
Discussion |
|
| 6:00 pm |
Transport to School of Natural Resources Reception |
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Friday, October 24, 2008
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Session 5.1: Drought Impacts, Products, and Meeting User Needs (continued)
Chair Person: Mark Svoboda
|
| 9:00 am - 9:30 am |
Impacts and evidence of drought, what additional information is needed? |
K. Redmond (Western Regional Climate Center) |
| 9:30 am - 10:00 am |
Drought chasing: An NDMC perspective on future drought activities |
M. Hayes (Univ. of Nebraska) |
| 10:00 am - 10:30 am |
Discussion: Future Directions for Drought-Research |
| 10:30 am - 11:00 am |
Wrap Up and Summary |
| 11:15 am |
End of Workshop |
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