Shown below are statistical MJO index forecast products. Three statistical MJO forecasts are shown and all involve application of the Wheeler and Hendon (2004) methodology to historical data. Statistical models include: (1) Constructed Analogue (Van den dool et al. (1994; 1995; 2003; 2007)), lagged linear regression (Wheeler and Hendon (2004), Jones et al. (2004), Seo et al. (2008), among others), and a simple autoregressive model (simplified form from Jones et al. 2004). More details of the production of these forecasts here at CPC can be provided if necessary. The first figure is a phase diagram illustrating the 15 day forecast for all three methods. The remaining two figures are based on the constructed analogue forecast only.

Phase diagram showing the evolution of the last 40 days of observations along with the 15 day forecasts from the constructed analogue (green), autoregressive model (AR), and lagged linear regression (red). The thick (thin) lines represent the statistical model forecasts for the first 7 days (last 8 days) respectively.

Forecasts of MJO associated anomalous OLR for the next 15 days from the constructed analogue forecasts based of forecasts of RMM1 and RMM2. Blue (yellow/red) shades show negative (positive) OLR anomalies and enhanced (suppressed) convection. Forecasts do not include direct contributions from other climate modes such as ENSO, monsoons, etc. - only the MJO.

Time-longitude section (7.5N-7.5S) of MJO associated anomalous OLR for the last 180 days and for the next 15 days from the constructed analogue forecast based on RMM1 and RMM2. Blue (yellow/red) shades show negative (positive) OLR anomalies and enhanced (suppressed) convection. Forecasts do not include direct contributions from other climate modes such as ENSO, monsoons, etc. - only the MJO.

Related References:

Jones, C., L. Carvalho, W. Higgins, D. Waliser, J. Schemm, 2004: A Statistical Forecast Model of Tropical Intraseasonal Convective Anomalies, J. Climate, 17, 2078-2095.

Seo, K., W. Wang, J. Gottschalck, Q. Zhang, J. Schemm, W. Higgins and A. Kumar, 2008: Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from several statistical and dynamical forecast models, J. Climate, Submitted.

Van den Dool, H.M., 1994: Searching for analogues, how long must we wait? Tellus, 46A, 314-324.

van den Dool, H.M. and A.G. Barnston, 1995: Forecasts of global sea surface temperature out to a year using the constructed analogue method. Proceedings of the 19th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, November 14-18, 1994, College Park, Maryland, 416-419.

Van den Dool, H., J. Huang and Y. Fan, 2003: Performance and Analysis of the Constructed Analogue Method Applied to US Soil Moisture over 1981-2001. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D16), 8617, doi:10.1029/2002JD003114,2003.

Van den Dool, H., 2007: Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction. Oxford University Press: 240 pages.

Wheeler, M. and H. Hendon, 2004: An All-Season Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index: Development of an Index for Monitoring and Prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917-1932.