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GTH Outlook Map and Data
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Last Updated -
12/17/24
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GTH Outlook Discussion
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Last Updated -
12/17/24
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Valid -
12/25/24 - 01/07/25
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The MJO has continued to be a significant player in the tropics. However, the emerging La Niña base state has been a growing source of interference with both the propagation and amplitude of the MJO. Dynamical model forecasts depict continued eastward propagation of the MJO signal with a slow phase. Extended range RMM-index solutions indicate the potential for a surge in the strength of the MJO during weeks 3&4 as it shifts into the Western Hemisphere and La Niña interference lessens. A continued eastward MJO propagation over the Pacific would favor a period of below-normal temperatures across the northeastern U.S. to start off the New Year, as well as a wet start for the West Coast.
During the last week a sub-tropical system formed off the southern coast of Brazil, and was named Bigua by the Brazilian navy. While its status as a tropical cyclone (TC) is somewhat ambiguous, systems of this kind are rare in the South Atlantic and thus is a noteworthy inclusion to the weekly summary of TC activity. Other than this system, there has been no TC activity over the last week, although the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is monitoring an area of disturbed weather designated 96W, just east of the Philippines for TC development, which is favored to occur in the very near future. Please refer to the JTWC for more information regarding potential TC 96W.
With the MJO forecast to be in phases 6-8 (Western Pacific/Western Hemisphere) during the forecast period, the northern coast of Australia and the South Pacific are favored to be active regions for TC activity during weeks 2-3. For both weeks the ECMWF and GEFS depict steadily increasing probabilities of TC genesis in these regions, with a slight risk (20% probability) of TC genesis off northeast coast of Australia and the South Pacific for both weeks, with a moderate risk (40%) posted for the South Pacific during week-3. A slight risk for TC genesis is also posted for the South China Sea portions of the Philippine Sea for both weeks due to favorable MJO positioning. Finally, a slight risk of TC genesis is posted for weeks 2&3 for the southwestern Indian Ocean with continued anomalous westerlies favored to persist through the forecast period. A moderate risk of TC genesis is posted for week-3 northeast of Madagascar, as the MJO moves into the Western Hemisphere, providing a more favorable environment for TC development over the region. MJO teleconnections generally favor wetter conditions for portions of the Pacific Northwest, and initially favor warm conditions over much of the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Extended RMM forecasts indicate that eastward propagation is favored to continue beyond week 3, colder conditions become favored over the Northeast U.S. as the MJO moves into phase 8.
The precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and 3 is based on potential TC activity, the anticipated state of ENSO and the MJO, and informed by GEFS, CFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions. During week-2 above-normal temperatures are indicated for much of northern South America, and strongly favored for much of the CONUS and Mexico, as well as the Hawaiian Island. For hazardous weather conditions in your area during the coming two-week period, please refer to your local NWS office, the Medium Range Hazards Forecast produced by the Weather Prediction Center, and the CPC Week-2 Hazards Outlook. Forecasts made over Africa are made in coordination with the International Desk at CPC.
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Product Release Information
The Global Tropics Hazards Outlook (GTH) is released once per week every Tuesday at 1730 UTC (1830 UTC when on standard time) including U.S. federal holidays.
At the time of product release, there is a live briefing (available via Google Meet) open to all stakeholders where the latest conditions and the newly
released outlook are shared with the opportunity to ask questions. Folks that are interested in learning more or attending these briefings should contact
Jon.Gottschalck@noaa.gov, Scott.Handel@noaa.gov, Adam.Allgood@noaa.gov and Nicholas.Novella@noaa.gov for the required information. Each weekly outlook and GTH release briefing is
Archived and available on the website.
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Product Description
The Global Tropics Hazards Outlook is a probabilistic forecast for areas with elevated probabilities for above- or below-median rainfall, above- or below-normal
temperatures and regions where tropical cyclogenesis is favored for the upcoming Week-2 and Week-3 time periods. The rainfall outlook is for precipitation
integrated over a week and targets broad-scale patterns, not local conditions as they will be highly variable. Above (below) median rainfall forecast areas are
depicted in green and brown respectively. Above (below) normal temperature forecast areas are depicted in orange and blue respectively. Favored areas for tropical
development are shown in red. Three probability intervals are indicated for precipitation and temperature which are set at 50, 65, and 80%, while the probability
intervals for tropical cyclone development are set at 20, 40, and 60%. The weekly verification period ranges from 00 UTC Wednesday to 00 UTC the following
Wednesday.
Along with the product graphic, a written text outlook discussion is also included at release time. The narrative provides a review of the past week across
the global Tropics, a description of the current climate-weather situation, the factors and reasoning behind the depicted outlook and notes on any other
issues the user should be aware of. The discussion discusses the impacts in the Tropics as well as potential impacts in the Extratropics when relevant.
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Product Physical Basis
The product synthesizes information and expert analysis related to climate variability across multiple time scales and from various sources, including operational
climate monitoring products. The physical basis for the outlooks include
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) , the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO),
strength and variations of the monsoon systems, other coherent subseasonal tropical variability such as atmospheric Kelvin waves (KW), Equatorial Rossby waves
(ERW), African easterly waves, as well as interactions with the extratropical circulation (i.e. high latitude blocking, low-latitude frontal activity, etc.).
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Product Forecast Tools
The outlook maps are currently based on a number of forecast tools, many of which are objective and serve as an objective first guess. The final depiction is an
assessment of these objective forecast tools augmented by the forecaster when based on additional forecast information when appropriate to create the final product.
Forecast tools include MJO composites, empirical and dynamical based MJO, ERW and KW forecasts, and bias-corrected dynamical model guidance from a number of modeling systems.
Tropical cyclone areas are based on MJO composites and statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone forecast guidance products as well as raw model forecast guidance.
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Product Purpose
The product supports the NOAA mission in three primary ways:
- Assess and forecast important changes in the distribution of tropical convection (i.e., potential circulation changes across the Pacific and North America sectors) and communicate this information to NWS forecasters
- Provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the global tropics (including tropical cyclone risks for several NWS regions)
- Support various sectors of the U.S. economy (finance, energy, agriculture, water resource management) that have foreign interests.
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Product Partners
The product is created through collaboration with other NOAA centers, [the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center (CPHC)], the Department of Defense [The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)],
the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, the State University of New York at Albany (SUNY) and the Center
for Climate and Satellites (CICS), among other collaborators.
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Product Users and Applications
Known users include U.S. government agencies such as NOAA [National Weather Service (NWS), River Forecast Centers (RFCs), the National
Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Department of the Interior (U.S. Forest Service), aid organizations (U.S. and international Red Cross,
USAID), domestic and global private sector interests (financial, energy, water resource management and agricultural sectors),
international weather services and various media meteorologists.
Some special applications of the product in the past include extended range predictions to support Haiti earthquake and Deepwater
Horizon oil spill relief efforts as well as support for the Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) scientific field campaign held from
October 2011 through March 2012.
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Product Resources
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Feedback and Questions
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www.nws.noaa.gov
