Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2024 
 
The November 2024 outlook considered the current and projected state of El Niño 
Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), trends , and 
recent Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Tools considered are the Sea Surface 
Temperature Based Constructed Analog (SST-CA), Canonical Correlation Analysis 
(CCA), Optimal Climate Normals (OCN), ENSO-OCN blend, and the dynamical models  
in both the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) and Copernicus Climate 
Change Services (C3S) suites. Of note, soil moisture was not considered due to 
the waning influence at this time of year. Further, precipitation measurements 
over Ontario Canada were deemed unreliable so they were not considered in the 
analysis of tools for the precipitation outlook. 
 
The temperature outlook is close to the consolidation of the statistical tools 
and NMME, though notably shifted toward a less certain outlook in the Pacific 
Northwest and Northern Great Plains. The likely progression of the MJO and 
associated downstream impacts, combined with some analyses showing an 
over-amplified trend in the many of the dynamical models , leads to less 
certainty in the Pacific NorthWest and Northern Great Plains. Uncertainty about 
the temperature outcomes along the mid-Atlantic resulted in lowered 
probabilities there compared to the final consolidation, as the tools indicate 
either near- or above-normal temperatures. The only tool indicating 
below-normal temperatures is a soil moisture based constructed analog, which 
was not considered due to the time of year. Recent SST changes toward warmer 
temperatures and climatologically low sea ice favor above-normal temperatures 
across the North Slope and northwest coast of Alaska. Slightly elevated odds 
for below-normal temperatures from the Kenai Peninsula to the Alaska Peninsula 
are consistent with La Niña though only weakly supported in the dynamical 
models. 
 
The precipitation outlook reflects the consistent signals  among the tools and 
dynamical models. Favoring below-normal precipitation along most of the 
southern tier is related to the developing La Niña, as well as indicated in 
most of the tools and dynamical models . The CFS indicates some wetness across 
the Southern Plains, so probabilities there are lower than the Southwest and 
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Statistical tools also indicate above-normal 
precipitation in Kansas and Oklahoma but the dynamical models  do not, and 
calibrations result in very small and uncertain areas. Across the Pacific 
Northwest, the forecast for above-normal precipitation is supported in the 
dynamical models (NMME and C3S) and aligns with the emerging La Niña. 
Above-normal precipitation across Northern Alaska is typically associated with 
warmer SSTs and lower sea ice. Almost all of the models in the NMME suite have 
a signal for above-normal precipitation across the north slope, which is 
retained in the calibrated outlooks. 
 
FORECASTER: Matthew Rosencrans 
 
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
An updated monthly outlook... for Nov will be issued on Thu October 31 2024 
 
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. 
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