CHAPTER 1

The Crunch

... nuclear warfare is not necessary to cause a breakdown of our society. You take a large city like Los Angeles, New York, Chicago—their water supply comes from hundreds of miles away and any interruption of that, or food, or power for any period of time you’re going to have riots in the streets. Our society is so fragile, so dependent on the interworking of things to provide us with goods and services, that you don’t need nuclear warfare to fragment us anymore than the Romans needed it to cause their eventual downfall.

—Gene Roddenberry

When the landing gear came down, Todd Gray gave an audible sigh of relief. He was almost home. The seventy-seat Horizon Airlines Bombardier CRJ- 700 commuter jet started its downwind leg, with its engines throttled back to low thrust. Todd looked out his window at the familiar rolling Palouse Hills, a neat patchwork of wheat fields. This time of year they were shorn to a short golden stubble. By early October even the straw had been hauled out. Just after the plane touched down, the air brakes flipped up, and the engines reversed with a roar. The plane wheeled to a stop at the tiny Pullman-Moscow air terminal, just west of the state line dividing Washington and Idaho. When the plane switched to external power, Todd unbuckled his seat belt, but didn’t get up. He hated standing in the aisle, waiting for everyone to pull out their carry-on bags, and waiting for what always seemed like an eternity for the cabin door to open and for the passengers to shuffle out. So he sat and waited for the aisle to clear. He closed his eyes, said a prayer, and considered what had gone on in the last seventy-two hours.

The meeting had been called on short notice, and attendance was mandatory. Everyone from mid-level account executives on up were there—even the field office managers from as far away as Baltimore. Todd Gray and the firm’s two other telecommuters were also corralled into the meeting by the management. It was important, they said. So Todd dutifully packed his best suit. He drove from Bovill to the Pullman-Moscow airport, took a commuter flight to Seattle, and then a United flight to O’Hare. He rented a car and checked into the Marriott, where he usually stayed on his quarterly trips to Chicago. That blew the entire first day. With the two-hour time difference from Idaho, it was 7 p.m. by the time he got to the Marriott and clicked on Fox News. There was lots of bad news on the television. He watched the news for a half hour and then started making phone calls and sending e-mails to his friends in Chicago. He spoke in urgent terms. After a fitful night’s sleep, he sat through a full day of meetings that started with a 7:30 a.m. working breakfast. This early start time for a major meeting was unprecedented at Bolton, Meyer, and Sloan.

The firm had brought in two consultants for the daylong meeting, a Russian from Florida, and an Argentinean from New York City. Both were considered subject matter experts on high inflation. Both were well-seasoned accountants, and both had lived through it in their home countries. Triple-digit inflation. Todd heard from one of the mid-level managers that the consultants were each paid twenty thousand dollars for the day.

He also mentioned that a third expert, from Zimbabwe, could not attend due to a foul-up with his visa application. Todd regretted this, knowing that with the recent 15,000 percent annual inflation rate and where ten zeroes were knocked off the currency, the Zimbabwean would have had the most recent subject matter expertise.

The Argentinean was on loan from Peat Marwick. His name was Phillipe y Bordero, and he was far more informative than the Russian. He talked about his experience in Argentina in the 1980s, when inflation ran as high as 100 percent per month as well as the economic crisis of 2002. He went on to describe how president Raoul Alfonsin had instituted a thousand-for-one currency exchange. He mentioned that his firm had to run daily calculations to compensate for the inflation. Sometimes twice a day for the bigger accounts. He went on at great length about how the firm would park money in day accounts and shuttle money quickly into dollars to protect the money from El Inferno—the inflation that was burning up the Argentine peso.

The Russian arrived an hour late, with loud apologies, claiming that his flight had been delayed. Todd mumbled to himself, Great. He could have flown in last night, all expenses paid. We pay this guy twenty grand, and he doesn’t even get here on time.

The account executive sitting next to Todd snickered in agreement.

The Argentinean was cool and deliberate. In contrast, the Russian was a manic speaker. He chattered about what things had been like for Russian accountants in the 1990s. His discussion soon degenerated into a rambling discourse on bribes: bribing the Moscow police, bribing the tax officials, bribing the Federalnaya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti (FSB)—the main successor of the KGB, bribing the Russian mob.

On some topics, the Russian was succinct. He said forthrightly,"You’ve got to figure out which is the most stable currency, and exchange into that currency as quickly as possible, before your local currency melts away. At one point in time in Russia we had 1,800 percent inflation. It was madness to leave it in rubles for more than a few days. For us then—at the time—the safe haven was greenback dollars. For us now, I dunno. Euros maybe. Swiss Francs maybe, but it’s got to be something more stable than these cruddy dollars. Latest figure is 115 percent and climbing. To be fair to your clients, and to be fair to your firm, you’ve got to get all incoming receivables out of dollars very, very quickly."

Todd never caught the Russian’s name. It was something multisyllabic and unpronounceable, ending in ski. One thing that the Russian asked soon after he arrived made Todd sit up and take notice:"Where are the security men? No guards in the lobby? You’ve got to increase security! You handle just account ledgers and thumb drives and data disks now, but pretty soon you are gonna be carrying around a lot of cash. So you need a couple of big guys with guns. Get the biggest, meanest looking guys you can find. And mean looking guns. One guard for the parking garage, and one or two for the lobby. Trust me.You won’t regret it."

After the catered lunch, there was a convoluted question from the far end of the long conference table. It was about how they should go about calculating daily depreciation of a currency and precisely how aggregates should be derived. Phillipe y Bordero was about to answer, but the Russian spoke first. He said something that astounded Todd and everyone else in the room. He said, Just make something up that sounds reasonable.You’re talking about a fast-moving target.Who gives a sheet? Make something up.

At that point old man Meyer cleared his throat. He was obviously perturbed. He retorted, We aren’t going to ‘make up’ anything.We are going to develop a set of accounting practices that will compensate for the inflation. We will use elaborate computer modeling and projections if need be. The Russian was nearly silent for the rest of the day. It was clear that Mr. Meyer did not get his twenty thousand dollars’ worth from the Russian. The day ended with nearly as many unanswered questions as it had started.

Todd took a 5:30 a.m. flight back to Seattle the next morning.

Todd was shaken from his reverie by the stewardess, who was walking up the aisle, making sure that none of the passengers had left anything behind. Todd stood up and carefully extracted his one and only bag from the overhead bin. He never checked luggage on his trips to Chicago. Todd was the last passenger off the plane.

Since he didn’t have any checked baggage, Todd was in his Dodge pickup within five minutes after getting off the plane. Parking was right out in front of the little Pullman-Moscow air terminal. It was quite convenient, compared to O’Hare with its lineal miles of glittering concourses, dozens of baggage carousels, and several square miles of parking lots that charged twenty dollars a day. Fifty minutes later, Todd pulled in the gate of his property. Shona ran alongside the pickup, yipping and wagging her tail. It felt very good to be safe at home.

Mary ran out the front door and gave him a long hug. They talked while he unpacked.

When the Crunch came, it did not arrive without warning. By the turn of the century, Federal spending was out of control, and the debt and deficit problems were insurmountable. By 2008, with the global credit market in freefall, bank runs and huge Federal bailouts were becoming more frequent. Collectively, the bailouts were a massive, unstoppable hemorrhage of red ink. The debt and deficit numbers compounded at frightening rates. But it was too agonizing to confront them, so they were ignored. A report by the Congressional Budget Office was alarming. It said that just to pay the interest on the national debt for the year, it would take 100 percent of the year’s individual income tax revenue, 100 percent of corporate and excise taxes, and 41 percent of Social Security payroll taxes. Just before the Crunch, interest on the national debt was consuming 96 percent of government revenue.

The debt piled up at the rate of nine billion a day, or fifteen thousand a second. The official national debt was over six trillion dollars. The unofficial debt, which included out year unfunded obligations such as entitlements, long-term bonds, and military pensions, topped fifty-three trillion dollars. Even the official national debt had ballooned to 120 percent of the gross domestic product and was compounding at the rate of 18 percent per year. The Federal government was borrowing 193 percent of revenue for the year. The president was nearing the end of his term in office. The stagnant economy, rising interest rates, and creeping inflation troubled the president. Publicly, he beamed about having beat the deficit. Privately, he admitted that the low deficit figures came from moving increasingly large portions of Federal funding off budget. Behind the accounting smoke and mirrors game, the real deficit was growing. Government spending at all levels equated to 45 percent of the Gross Domestic Product. In July, the recently appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve Board had a private meeting with the president. The chairman pointed out the fact that even if Congress could balance the budget, the national debt would still grow inexorably, due to compounding interest.

The president didn’t let trifles like ledger sheets and statistics get in his way. The economy was on a roll. The stock market was at an all-time high. It was business as usual for his administration. Instead of reducing the growth in government spending, he launched an immoderate bank lending stimulus package, corporate bailouts, mortgage-backed securities bailouts, and another extravagant round of his pet infrastructure building programs in inner city areas as well as in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In Europe, international bankers began to vocally express their doubts that the U.S. government could continue to make its interest payments on the burgeoning debt. In mid-August, the chairman of the Deutsche Bundesbank made some off the record comments to a reporter from The Economist magazine. Within hours, his words flashed around the world via the Internet: A full-scale default on U.S. Treasuries appears imminent. He had spoken the dreaded D word. His choice of the word imminent in conjunction with the word default caused the value of the dollar to plummet on the international currency exchanges the next day. T-bill sales crashed simultaneously. Starting with the Japanese, foreign central banks and international monetary authorities began to dump their trillions of dollars in U.S. Treasuries. None of them wanted the now risky T-Bills or U.S. bonds. Within days, long-term U.S. Treasury paper was selling at twenty cents on the dollar.

In short order, foreign investors at all levels began liquidating their U.S. paper assets—stocks, bonds, T-bills—virtually anything denominated in U.S. dollars. After some halfhearted attempts at propping up the dollar, most of the European Union nations and Japan announced that they would no longer employ the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency.

To help finance the ever-growing debt, the Federal Reserve decided to make a tactical move. It began monetizing larger and larger portions of the debt. The Fed already owned $682 billion in Treasury debt, which was considered an asset for the purposes of expanding the money supply. In just a few days, Federal Reserve holdings in Treasury debt more than doubled. The printing presses were running around the clock printing currency. The official domestic inflation rate jumped to 16 percent in the third week of August. To the dismay of the Fed, the economy refused to bounce back. The balance of trade figures grew steadily worse. Leading economic indicators declined to a standstill.

In reaction to the crisis, the lawmakers in Washington, D.C. belatedly wanted to slash Federal spending, but were frustrated that they couldn’t touch most of it. The majority of the budget consisted of interest payments and various entitlement programs. Previous legislation had locked in these payments. Many of these spending programs even had automatic inflation escalators. So the Federal budget continued to expand, primarily because of the interest burden on the Federal debt. The interest payments grew tremendously as interest rates started to soar. It took 85 percent interest rates to lure investors to six-month T-bills. The Treasury Department stopped auctioning longer-term paper entirely in late August. With inflation roaring, nobody wanted to lend Uncle Sam money for the long term. Jittery American investors increasingly distrusted the government, the stock market, and even the dollar itself. In September, new factory orders and new housing starts dropped off to levels that could not be properly measured. Corporations, large and small, started massive layoffs. The unemployment rate jumped from 12 percent to 20 percent in less than a month.

The catalyst for the real panic, however, was the stock market crash that started in early October. The bull stock market had gone on years longer than expected, defying the traditional business cycle. Nearly everyone thought that they were riding an unstoppable bull. From fifteen to twenty billion in new mutual fund money had been pouring into the stock market every month. The mutuals had become so popular that there were more mutual funds listed than individual stocks. By 2009, there were 240,000 stockbrokers in the country. It was the 1920s, in déjà vu. Just before the Crunch, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was selling at a phenomenal sixty-five times dividends—right back where it had been just before the 2000 dot-com bubble explosion. The market climbed to unrealistic heights, driven by unmitigated greed.

Soon after the dollar’s collapse, however, the stock market was driven by fear. Unlike the previous crashes, this time the U.S. markets slumped gradually. This was due to circuit breaker regulations on program trading, implemented after the 1987 Wall Street slump. Instead of dropping precipitously in the course of one day as it had in ’87, this time it took nineteen days to drop 7,550 points. This made the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 look insignificant. Nobody could believe it. None of the market experts thought that the market could go down that far, but it did. Only a few contrarian analysts predicted it. Finally, the government suspended all trading, since there was almost no one buying any of the issues that came up for sale.

Because all of the world’s equities markets were tied inextricably together, they crashed simultaneously. The London and Tokyo markets were hit worse than the U.S. stock exchanges. The London market closed five days after the slump started. The Tokyo market, which was even more volatile, closed after only three days of record declines. Late in the second week of the stock market collapse, the domestic runs on U.S. banks began. The quiet international run on U.S. banks and the dollar had begun a month earlier. It took the GDP—the generally dumb public—in America that long to realize that the party was over.

The only investors that made profits in the Crunch were those that had invested in precious metals. Gold soared to $5,100 an ounce, with the other precious metals rising correspondingly. Even for these investors, their gains were only illusory paper profits. Anyone who was foolish enough to cash out of gold and into dollars after the run up in prices would have soon lost everything. This was because the domestic value of the dollar collapsed completely just a few weeks later.

The dollar collapsed because of the long-standing promises of the FDIC. All deposits insured to $200,000, they had promised. When the domestic bank runs began, the government had to make good on the promises. The only way that they could do this was to print money—lots and lots of it. Many Americans were already leery of Federal Reserve Notes due to successive waves of changes in the large portrait currency that began in 1996.

Strange new money tints caused a subtle change in the American psyche. The paper money didn’t look right. It looked phony. And, in essence, it was. Since 1964, the currency had no backing with precious metals. All that was backing it was empty promises. Rumors suggested, and then news stories confirmed, that the government mints were converting some of their intaglio printing presses. Presses originally designed to print one-dollar bills were converted to print fifty and one-hundred dollar bills. This made the public even more suspicious.

With the printing presses running day and night turning out fiat currency, hyperinflation was inevitable. Inflation jumped from 16 percent to 35 percent in three days. From there on, it climbed in spurts during the next few days: 62 percent, 110 percent, 315 percent, and then to an incredible 2,100 percent. The currency collapse was reminiscent of Zimbabwe, just a few years earlier. Thereafter, the value of the dollar was pegged hourly. It was the main topic of conversation. As the dollar withered in the blistering heat of hyperinflation, people rushed out to put their money into cars, furniture, appliances, tools, rare coins—anything tangible. This superheated the economy, creating a situation not unlike that in Germany’s Weimar Republic in the 1920s. More and more paper was chasing less and less product.

With a superheated economy, there was no way for the government to check the soaring inflation, aside from stopping the presses. This they could not do, however, because depositors were still flocking to the banks to withdraw all of their savings. One radio talk show host described this situation as watching a snake eat its own tail.All that the bureaucrats in Washington, D.C. could do was watch it happen. They had sown the seeds decades before when they started deficit spending. Now they were reaping the whirlwind. The workers who still had jobs quickly caught on to the full implications of the mass inflation. They insisted on daily inflation indexing of their salaries, and in some cases even insisted on being paid daily.

Citizens on fixed incomes were wiped out financially by the hyperinflation within two weeks. These included pensioners, those on unemployment insurance, and welfare recipients. Few could afford to buy a can of beans when it cost $150 dollars. The riots started soon after inflation bolted past the 1,000 percent mark. Detroit, New York, and Los Angeles were the first cities to see full-scale rioting and looting. Soon, the riots engulfed most other large cities.

When the Dow Jones average had slumped its first 1,900 points, Todd Gray made his mobilization calls to the six members of his retreat group still living in the Chicago area. He followed up with a multiple-addressee e-mail message. There was no need to call Kevin Lendel. He had been coming over for dinner and extended conversations for the past three evenings. Most of the group members agreed to attempt to make their way to the Grays’ home in Idaho as soon as possible.

The only voices of doubt came from the Laytons and Dan Fong. When Todd first called Dan—before his trip back for the accounting firm meeting—Dan listened to his full spiel, and then remarked, "Yeah, Todd, remember what you did right after the 9/11 terrorist attacks?You went positively ape.You were Chicken Little, and the sky didn’t fall, now did it? I remember the ‘emergency meeting’ that we had at T.K.’s. You were really panicky. You even had Mary loading magazines from stripper clips during the meeting, as I recall. Now how do you know this isn’t just another false alarm?"

Dan’s doubts disappeared a few days later when he was on his way to work. He slowed down when he saw a queue of people stretching a full block. It ended at the doors of the First Chicago Bank on Columbus Avenue. Oh maaaan, he commented aloud to himself,It’s six o’clock in the morning, and they’re already lined up. This looks way serious. He remembered that bank lines were one of Todd’s touted warning signs.

Turning the corner, Dan had to stop and gawk, along with several other drivers. A man was smashing an ATM machine with a tire iron. The machine was obviously either out of cash or had been shut down by the bank. The man was still in the process of venting his rage with the tire iron when Dan drove away. The food rush started that same day. Supermarket shelves were completely emptied in a coast-to-coast three-day panic.

On the last day of October, the Grays found that their phone was still working, but only for local calls.When they tried making long-distance calls, they got an All circuits are busy now recording, at all hours of the day or night. The next day, there was message advising,All circuits will be restored shortly. Two days later, there was no dial tone.

By early November, there was almost continuous rioting and looting in every major city in the U.S. Due to the financial panic and rioting, the November election was postponed to January, but it never took place. Rioting grew so commonplace that riot locations were read off in a list—much like traffic reports—by news broadcasters. The police could not even begin to handle the situation. The National Guard was called out in most states, but less than half of the Guardsmen reported for duty. With law and order breaking down, most of them were too busy protecting their own families to respond to the call-up.An emergency call-up of the Army Reserve three days later had an even smaller response. All over America, entire inner-city areas burned to the ground, block after block. No one and nothing could stop it. On the few occasions that the National Guard was able to respond to the riots, there were some massacres that made Kent State seem insignificant.

Many factories in proximity to the riots closed temporarily in concern for the safety of their workers, but never reopened. Most others carried on with their normal operation for several more days, only to be idled due to lack of transport. Shipping goods in the United States of the early twenty-first century in most cases meant one thing: eighteen-wheel diesel trucks traveling on the interstate highway system. The trucks stopped rolling for several reasons. First was a fuel shortage. Then came the flood of refugees from the cities that jammed the highways. Then cars that ran out of gas disrupted traffic.

As cars ran out of gas, they blocked many critical junctions, bridges, and overpasses. Some highway corridors in urban areas turned into gridlocked parking lots. Traffic came to a stop, motionless cars began to run out of gas, and the forward movement of traffic was never resumed. In some places, cars were able to back up and turn around. In most others, people were not so lucky. There, the traffic was so densely packed that drivers were forced to just get out of their cars and walk away.

Every major city in the United States was soon gripped in a continual orgy of robbery, murder, looting, rape, and arson. Older inner-city areas were among the hardest hit. Unfortunately, the design of the interstate freeway system put most freeways in close proximity to inner-city areas. The men who had planned the interstate highway system in the 1940s and 1950s could not be blamed. At that time, downtown areas were still flourishing. They were the heart of industry, population, commerce, and wealth. Thus, it was only logical that the highways should be routed as close to them as possible, and preferably through them. These planners could not then have predicted that in fifty years the term inner city would become synonymous with poverty, squalor, welfare, drugs, disease, and rampant crime.

America’s once proud and efficient railroad system, long the victim of government ineptitude, was unable to make any appreciable difference in the transportation crisis. Most of the factories that had been built in the past thirty years had been positioned near highways, not railroad tracks. Also, like the highways, most rail lines passed through urbanized areas, placing trains at the same risk as trucks. Gangs of looters found that it did not take large obstructions to cause train derailments. Within a few hours of each derailment they stripped the trains of anything of value.

A few factories managed to stay in operation until early November. Most had already closed, however, due to failing markets, failing transportation, failing communications, or the failing dollar. In some instances, workers were paid through barter, rather than cash. They were paid with the company’s product. Chevron Oil paid its workers in gasoline.Winchester-Olin paid its workers in ammunition.

The last straw was the power grid.When the current stopped flowing, the few factories and businesses still in operation closed their doors.Virtually every industry in America was dependent on electric power. The power outages forced even the oil refineries to shut down. Up until then, the refineries had been operating around the clock trying to meet the increased demand for liquid fuels. Ironically, even though refineries processed fuel containing billions of BTUs of energy, most of them did not have the ability to produce enough electric power to supply all of their needs. Like so many other industries, oil refiners had made the mistaken assumption that they could always depend on the grid. They needed a stable supply of electricity from the power grid for their computers and to operate the solenoids for their valves.

The power outages caused a few dramatic effects. At a Kaiser aluminum plant near Spokane, Washington, the power went out during the middle of a production shift.With the plant’s electric heating elements inactive, the molten aluminum running through the hot process end of the plant began to cool. Workers scrambled to clear as much of the system as possible, but the metal hardened in many places, effectively ruining the factory. If the plant were ever to be reopened, the hardened aluminum would have to be removed with cutting torches or jackhammers.

Electricity also proved to be the undoing of prisons all over America. For a while, officials maintained order in the prisons. Then the fuel for the backup generators ran out. Prison officials had never anticipated a power outage that would last more than two weeks. Without power, security cameras did not function, lights did not operate, and electrically operated doors jammed.As the power went out, prison riots soon followed.

Prison officials hastened to secure their institutions. Under lock down conditions, most inmates were confined to their cells, with only a few let out to cook and deliver meals in the cell blocks. At many prisons the guard forces could not gain control of the prison population, and there were mass escapes. At several others, guards realized that the overall situation was not going to improve, and they took the initiative to do something about it. They walked from cell to cell, shooting convicts. Scores of other prisoners died at the hands of fellow convicts. Many more died in their cells due to other causes; mainly dehydration, starvation, and smoke inhalation.

Despite the best efforts of prison officials, 80 percent of the country’s more than one-and-a-half-million state and federal prisoners escaped. A small fraction of the escaped prisoners were shot on sight by civilians. Those that survived quickly shed their prison garb and found their way into the vicious wolf packs that soon roamed the countryside.

The economic depression and resultant chaos that gripped America also occurred around the world. Each evening, Todd and Mary Gray turned on the Drake R8-A shortwave receiver that Mary had mail-ordered from Ham Radio Outlet the previous year. They listened to the civilized world disintegrate. It was a sort of macabre form of entertainment. In many cases, radio stations went off the air altogether. The first to go was Radio South Africa, followed by the BBC, Radio Netherlands, and Radio Deutsche Welle.

On one notable evening of listening, Todd and Mary were listening to HCJB in Ecuador, and were surprised to hear gunfire in the background as the news announcer spoke. Then, even more incredibly, the radio station was taken over by revolutionaries while they listened. The Grays turned off their receiver after the microphone was taken over by a Commandante Cruz who was shouting in rapid-fire Spanish.

With the same radio, Todd and Mary were also able to monitor amateur radio broadcasters throughout the western United States. For a brief time after most other U.S. stations had vanished, WWCR in Nashville, Tennessee, remained on the air at 3.215, 5.070, 5.935, 9.985, 12.160, and 15.825 megahertz. Todd had the most success with the amateur band centered on 7.2 megahertz. The news that they heard from these ham operators was almost universally bad. They reported civil unrest in nearly every city with a population over forty thousand. Most of the hams were operating on standby power, as there were only a few isolated areas that still had regular utility grid power.

In Bovill, Idaho, the town nearest the Grays’ farm, there were not many noticeable effects of the Crunch during its early stages. The sawmill in nearby Troy, which had cut back to one shift per day two months earlier, shut down completely. The nearby Shell gas station sold out of gas in a two-day period. Most Americans had a hard time dealing with the galloping inflation. This phenomenon had an only limited effect in Bovill. The local grocery store was sold completely out of stock by the time inflation reached triple-digit figures. When there was little or nothing available to buy, the value of the dollar was inconsequential.

As in other small towns across America, most people around Bovill just stayed at home, glued to their radios and televisions. In rural Idaho, the riots that were breaking out in the major cities seemed a million miles away. The catchphrase of the day was, Isn’t it terrible what’s happening in New York? To Todd, the phrase had a tone that he had heard before. It was the same tone used when people talked about famines and floods overseas. It seemed that the local residents were trying to deny that what was going on had any impact on them. The Grays’ neighbors expressed concern for their personal safety only when there were disturbances reported in Seattle. That was six and a half hours away by car. Things were getting steadily worse all over the country, but in remote regions like the Palouse Hills, there was a time delay.

During this pause, Todd started making some final preparations. First, he closed and latched all of the steel shutters over the windows of their house. Mary commented that it made the house seem dark and gloomy. Todd just shrugged his shoulders and said, Well, I guess we’ll just have to get used to it. Next, Todd mandated that they lock—and keep locked—both the gate at the county road and the gate on the chain-link fence around the house, and the doors to the house. Mary suggested that they also keep their Power Wagon pickup and her Volkswagen Beetle locked up in the garage with their distributor rotors removed.

Mary also suggested that she and Todd have a meeting with the Latah County civil defense coordinator in Moscow. By this time, however, the phone line—and with it their Internet connection—was dead. They finally decided that the benefits of such a meeting were outweighed by the expenditure of now precious gasoline that they would have to use. It was a sixty-five-mile round trip to Moscow. Further, Todd did not rule out the risk of social unrest in Moscow—even if the city did have only thirty thousand residents.

The Grays also started using up the contents of their electric refrigerator and chest freezer. With extended power failures expected, they did not want food to spoil unnecessarily. Todd methodically sliced, marinated, and jerked nearly all of the elk, venison, and salmon in the chest freezer. The exhausting process took five days.With the same thought in mind, Mary took the initiative of recharging all of the nickel metal hydride batteries for their flashlights and various electronic gear.As they only had two small chargers, this took nearly as long as the jerky making.

They didn’t know how rough things might get, or whether or not any of the other group members would show up to help secure the retreat. So Todd completely refilled the firewood storage area in the basement. He told Mary, It would be ironic to make all these preparations and then get blown away doing something so mundane as walking back and forth to the woodshed.

As further insurance, Todd and Mary also began carrying their Colt .45 automatics at all times. They also loaded half of the magazines for each of their guns. Todd’s plan was to alternately unload these magazines and load the other half of their magazines twice a year. This would prevent the magazine springs from taking a set. On the few trips that he took into town or down the road to Kevin Lendel’s house, Todd carried both his .45 and his short-barreled Remington 870 shotgun. There was no worry of being arrested, as there was no prohibition on carrying a loaded gun in public. In fact, Idaho was one of the few states where citizens could carry a loaded gun in a car. The only prohibition was on carrying a concealed weapon without a state permit. In Idaho, concealed carry permits were easy to obtain.

Surprisingly, the U.S. Postal Service still made regular deliveries until early November. Local mail got through promptly, but longer distance deliveries were sporadic at best. The Grays took advantage of this in several ways. First, they sent letters to their family members, letting them know that they were safe and well. Next they wrote all of the group members still in the Chicago area, once again urging them to Get out of Dodge. They hoped that if and when their letters arrived, that the group members would have already departed.

After a long talk, Todd and Mary decided to make an $800 prepayment on their electric power bill. They also sent a check covering the next three years’ property taxes on their farm. Although it appeared that the local government would likely evaporate in the next few weeks, they felt more secure knowing that they wouldn’t lose their farm to taxes as some of their relatives had in the depression of the 1930s. The check to the tax assessor office was relatively small, as their annual tax assessment was only $780 for their house and forty acres.

Writing these two checks brought the balance of their checking account down to $220. Their savings account had long since been cleaned out when they bought the house and upgraded it. One of the reasons they wrote these checks was that the dollars that they represented were rapidly becoming worthless. They agreed that it was better to spend their money on something useful than to see it lost to hyperinflation.

Todd and Mary walked down the hill to their mailbox in silence. Todd had his Remington riot shotgun tucked under his arm. As they got to the box, Todd blurted out, This seems so absurd. Here we are, mailing checks drawn on a bank that has closed its doors—probably forever, denominated in a currency that is basically worthless, to a couple of organizations that will probably be nonexistent soon after the checks arrive! He had meant the comment to be funny, but Mary didn’t laugh. She tossed the envelopes in the box, closed the lid, flipped up the flag, and turned back toward their house. There were tears welling up in her eyes.

Four days after the riots started, Paul and Paula Andersen, the Grays’ neighbors to the south, dropped by the house to explain that they were going to go double up at their son’s place. He had a large cattle ranch near Kendrick, about twenty-five miles south of Bovill. The Andersens offered the Grays the use of their house, barn, water supply, firewood, stored hay, and pasture in their absence. Todd told Paul,Thanks for the offer, but I probably won’t need to take you up on it. I’ll be happy to keep an eye on your place while you’re gone, though.

Paul Andersen thanked Todd and handed him a slip of paper, saying, Here’s my son’s address and phone number in Kendrick.When the phones are working again, give us a call. They never saw the Andersens again.

The other two neighbors with property contiguous to the Grays’ parcel left under similar circumstances. Most of these neighbors didn’t bother to stop by and make their goodbyes. By the haste of their activity when packing up, Todd presumed that they were in too much of a hurry for formal goodbyes. The neighbors across the county road, the Crabbes, waved to Mary as they pulled their heavily laden flatbed Ford pickup and trailer out their front gate with their last load. Mary later mentioned to Todd that it seemed like a scene out of The Grapes of Wrath. They never saw the Crabbes again, either.

Todd and Mary began hearing the term doubling up with great regularity as they tuned from channel to channel on Mary’s CB radio. It was the local parlance that developed for two or more families relocating and setting up mini-strongholds. The residents of Latah County were plain country folks, but they weren’t stupid. When times got tough, most realized that a single family on a remote farm would be no match for a band of looters. It was a natural and logical reaction to cluster into small defensive groups.

Both Todd and Mary had trouble sleeping during the interval between the onset of the riots and when the other members of their retreat group started to arrive. Adrenaline wouldn’t let them sleep. Todd found himself lying awake in bed, listening anxiously for anything that sounded out of place. Every time their dog Shona let out a loud growl or bark, both of them would immediately be on their feet. Todd would look out the back shutters while Mary checked the front.

Once the rest of the group members arrived, they would be able to set up a regular guard schedule at the listening post/observation post (LP/OP) that Todd had prepared. Until then, however, they would have to be light sleepers. The stress of getting only snatches of sleep began to show after only a few days.

The first of the members of the Group to arrive at the retreat were Mike and Lisa Nelson. They came roaring up in their Bronco and their Mustang, late in the evening of October fifteenth. They reported that they had not run into trouble on their trip, aside from having to pay sixty-five dollars a gallon for gas at one stop. They commented that there were a lot of people on the road, even late at night, and that a lot of the cars they saw were full to the gunnels and towing U-Haul trailers.

Mike said that they had both called in sick the day before they left, and that neither he nor Lisa had bothered calling back again. When Todd asked if this was wise, Mike replied, Todd, if you had seen the panic that we saw, you’d have done the same thing.We’re not going back. Ever. We split the whole program. Besides, at this point, I probably couldn’t get my job back even if I wanted to, so there is no turning back.

The conversation didn’t go on much longer because they were exhausted and wanted to get some sleep. They had driven straight through from Chicago.

The next to arrive, seventeen hours later, were Dan Fong and Tom Kennedy. By prior arrangement, they had convoyed out west together. Dan was driving his Toyota pickup. Tom’s flat brown-painted Bronco, riding down on its overload springs, followed close behind. After they stopped, Todd noticed that the Toyota’s windshield, passenger side window, and rear window on the camper shell were missing.What clearly looked like bullet holes peppered the passenger side of the camper shell. Their debriefing went on much longer than that given by the Nelsons.

CHAPTER 2

Old Friends

A few honest men are better than numbers.

—Oliver Cromwell

The morning following the arrival of Dan and T.K., there was still no sign of Ken and Terry Layton, the last of the group members still in Illinois. Dan said that he was beginning to wonder if they would ever arrive.When Mary voiced the same concern to Todd, he smiled and declared, Don’t worry, if I know them, they’ll get here even if they have to cover the whole distance in three-to-five second rushes.

After his conversation with Mary, Todd went to see Mike, who was inventorying his equipment in his wall lockers in the Grays’ basement.As he reached the bottom of the stairs, Todd told Mike, It would be wise to start a round-the-clock guard mount, starting this morning. I’d like you to work up a duty schedule.We’ll use that sked until Ken and Terry arrive, then we’ll set a permanent watch.

Mike raised an eyebrow and asked,So you really think that they’ll make it here? You know, if they had a chance to make it out in a car, they’d be here by now. They could be on foot by now, or worse.You saw how Dan’s rig got shot up. That’s pretty strong evidence that we’re in a world of hurt.

Todd gave Mike Nelson a glum look.I know Mike, I know. At this point, though, all we can do is hope and pray. Care to join me? They kneeled and bowed their heads. They prayed aloud, each beseeching protection and travel mercies for the Laytons.

Later that morning, Todd called for a formal debriefing of the Nelsons, Dan, and T.K. Everyone got together in the living room of the house, with the exception of Mary, who was up at the hillside listening post/observation post (LP/OP).

The drive itself was a piece of cake, really, Mike began. "Like I told Todd before, the hardest part was loading up all of our gear.We spent half a day putting everything into three heaps:‘Essentials,’‘Second Priority,’ and ‘Nice to Have.’

We thought that we had pre-positioned most of our gear here at the retreat, but once we started setting out everything that we still had at our house, we realized that we had seriously underestimated the weight and volume.

Lisa interjected, "I suppose that we should have done a practice load-up a long time ago. It would have made our underestimation immediately apparent, and prevented having to consciously think through what we absolutely needed to take. Anyway, after prioritizing, we started loading. The guns got packed first. Then all of our ammo. Then our ALICE packs. Then twelve five-gallon gas cans. Those went on the rack on the tailgate and just inside it, so we could refuel without having to unload anything to get to the cans.

"Next we loaded our ‘tactical’ food supplies—you know—the MREs and various freeze-dried and retort packaged stuff.We are thankful that we brought most of our MREs here last year. Otherwise, we would have had to leave them behind. This got us through the ‘Essentials’ pile. The real headaches came with the ‘Second Priority’ pile: clothing, bulk foods, field gear, most of our medical supplies, the hand crank generator, and so on.We just didn’t have room to fit it all in, even with both the Bronco and the Mustang. I considered trying to get a rental trailer, but I figured that by then they’d all be long gone.

The end result was that we had to leave behind half of our wheat, our generator, our kerosene lamps, all of our cans of kerosene, and half of our survival reference books. Before we took off, I left the extra gear along with a goodbye note on our next door neighbor’s back porch. I figured that there was no use in having them go to waste. Besides, I knew that we wouldn’t have the opportunity to come back for another load. The only thing that we took from the ‘Nice to Have’ pile was my old family Geneva Bible. It has been through floods, tornadoes, you name it. I’m glad it’s with us.

By the time we got everything packed, it was three a.m.We were going to coordinate, but the phone was dead. As it turned out, leaving in the middle of the night worked out for the best. There was not much traffic. Even still, we saw quite a few cars and pickups towing trailers. Mike drove ahead of me.We talked to each other on the CB. We didn’t chatter. It was just the occasional ‘slow down!’ or ‘watch out for this truck that’s coming up to pass!’We had the CBs set to channel 27, upper sideband—the Get Out Of Dodge (G.O.O.D.) frequency—so Mike occasionally tried to reach the Laytons, or Dan or T.K., in case they were monitoring, but they either weren’t listening or were out of range. I was really nervous the whole way. I had the doors locked and kept my Colt Gold Cup tucked under my thigh on the seat of the car.

Mike continued, We didn’t want to use up any more of the gas in cans than we had to, so we stopped several times to fill up. One station was charging sixty-five dollars per gallon for all grades of fuel.

Lisa interjected,That was the station where we met this guy and his family stranded in their minivan. Because the gas station had started to refuse checks and credit cards the day before, they wouldn’t even accept their own franchise card. This guy had every credit card in the world—American Express,VISA, you name it—but only eighteen dollars in cash. Just as the guy was taking off his fancy gold wristwatch to offer the station manager in exchange for a tank of gas, Mike walks up to him and hands him nine one-hundred-dollar bills. He thanked him and offered to send the money back later. Mike said to him ‘No prob, keep it fella. Besides, by the time you’d get a chance to mail me the money, people will be kindling their fires with fifties, and wiping their behinds with hundreds.’

Mike concluded, Anyway, the long and the short of it is that we got here, and saw no serious disorder along the way. But, as Lisa told you, there were a lot of determined-looking people with very heavily loaded vehicles on the road.

Dan and T.K.’s debriefing was next. T.K. began, "I was listening to my Cobra CB base station, set to the primary G.O.O.D. frequency, as I was packing up. All of a sudden, I heard this voice saying: ‘Dude, are we getting out of here or what?’ It was the Fong-man. Boy, I was glad to hear him. I ‘rogered’ back, and he told me that he was all packed up and ready to go. I said, ‘Great, come on over and help me load up.’ He showed up in about ten minutes.As it turned out, he was on ‘security’ while I packed. I made sure that I had a gun handy throughout the process as well. I had my Colt Commander cocked and locked in the inside pocket of that flyer’s jacket I bought last year.

Basically, I packed while Dan sat in the cab of his Toyota, holding his old Model ’97 trench gun. I asked him why he wasn’t carrying his Remington 870. He says, ‘This gun is much more ominous.... ’ Then he whips out this bayonet about a mile long and snaps it on. ‘This oughta make any hungry neighbors think twice,’ he says. By the time I was done loading up, it was nearly midnight. I brought all I could think of, and got the old Bronco pretty well loaded down. Luckily, I just made a caching trip out here last summer, so I didn’t have to leave much behind that I would have wanted aside for some books and bed linens.When we took off, Dan was in the lead.

Dan stood up and continued, "I started packing up a day before Tom. I couldn’t figure which of my guns to bring along, so I said to myself, ‘Aw shucks, I’ll just take all of them.’ Most of the guns are still wrapped up in blankets at the bottom of everything else in the back end of the Fongmobile—all twenty-nine of them.

Because I had my doubts, I worked the next three days after I got Todd’s ‘The sky is falling!, the sky is falling!’ call. My last afternoon at the cannery, the general manager gave me a list of fifteen employees that I was supposed to hand pink slips to at four o’clock. I told him, ‘Sorry boss, can’t do that. These people depend on their jobs, and we depend on them.We can’t put out a safe-to-eat product without a minimum level of staffing on each shift.’ Then he says to me, ‘If you refuse, I’ll have no choice but to let you go as well.’ Then I said, ‘You can’t fire me, because I just quit,’ and walked away. I didn’t even bother to clean out my desk. I just grabbed a few of my engineering reference books, and the Sykes-Fairbairn ‘letter opener’ that I kept in the top drawer. On my way out, I stopped by the employee’s thrift shop and bought sixteen cases of various late-date-of-pack canned fruit and vegetables. They were still tagged at the old employee price which is like two cents on the dollar from current prices.

Fong scanned the room and then went on. Soooo, that same evening I started packing up. By then the phones had been out for a couple of days. It took a lot longer than I thought to pack up. As T.K. told you, I spent the next few hours keeping a look out while he got his gear loaded.We left late, eleven o’clock—no, I guess it was after midnight.

T.K. nodded in agreement.

Dan shrugged his shoulders and went on. "It didn’t seem that late. Anyhooo, we got ourselves on the road. On our way out of town we saw one house totally in flames, but not a single fire truck was in sight.We also saw two cars that had been gutted. The traffic on the freeway was nearly bumper-to-bumper, even at midnight. All of the gas stations were either closed or had big signs, mainly sheets of plywood spray painted with the words ‘NO GAS.’

"By the time we were an hour and a half out of Chicago, we started seeing cars that had run out of gas alongside the road. A couple of times I had to swerve around people trying to flag us down. They were really desperate. By that time, I figured that stopping to help anybody out would be far more dangerous than it was worth. By the time we crossed the state line there were cars out of gas on the shoulder every half a mile. It was at that point that I got on the radio to T.K. and suggested that we cut over to the older two-lane highway that parallels the interstate. Things were really starting to look hostile on the interstate, so we cut over as soon as we got the chance. By that time, T.K. and I were both low on fuel.

"My gauge read a quarter full, and T.K. radioed to say that he’d switched over to his reserve tank, so I started looking for a good place to refuel. I picked a side road that went out by a bunch of farms. There were no cars on it at all. We stopped about a mile down this side road at a straight stretch where we could see both ways for quite a distance. I got out with my Model 97, and had my Beretta nine mil in a shoulder rig. T.K. got out with his CAR-15, and slung it across his back. I played security for him while he refueled, and then he did the same for me.

"Just as I was putting the last of a third jerry can into my rig, T.K. gave a whistle, and I saw a car’s headlights. Both of us got down on the far side of our rigs, trying to put as much engine block as we could between us and them. When the lights got within about 150 yards, I could see it was a patrol car.

"At that point, both T.K. and I played it cool, and we slipped our long guns under my pickup, lengthwise, so they were out of sight. Turned out it was a sheriff’s deputy. When he stopped his patrol car behind our rigs, T.K. walked back to talk with him. Needless to say, he was very curious about us, and wasn’t taking any chances. He had a big Glock 21, and it was out of the holster.

"T.K. explained to him that we were on our way to stay with friends in Idaho and had just stopped to refuel. He had already figured that out, and pointed his flashlight at the jerry can sitting by my rig.At first, he thought we’d both been riding in my Toyota, and that we had stopped to siphon somebody’s Bronco. It wasn’t until we showed him our driver’s licenses and the registration for both vehicles that he started to relax.

"Boy, was I scared. The last thing that we needed was to get locked up in some county jail in Iowa just as the shit was hitting the fan. As it turned out, the dude was pretty cool after all.We shot the breeze for a bit while I finished gassing up, and cramming the cans back in the rigs. Just before he left, he said, ‘Well, I hope you make it to your hidey-hole in Ide-ho in one piece.’ He sure had us pegged. Anyway, we waited ’til he was well out of sight before we picked up our guns. He