By the end of the 21st century, African easterly wave activity over the Sahel-Sahara is expected to rise due to increased baroclinicity and low-level warming from reinforcing monsoon flow, impacting Saharan dust transport and mesoscale convective activity, according to analysis of an ensemble of Earth system models.

Atlantic and Pacific low-cloud variability is difficult to simultaneously capture in climate models. Here, multi-objective optimization reconciles cloud feedbacks in the two basins, constraining tropical cloud feedback toward higher values.

Climate strategies focus primarily on carbon, largely ignoring the destabilized water cycle that’s amplifying disasters and accelerating climate change. Slow Water projects can reverse this trend.

Humid heatwaves are often limited by the onset of convective rain, such as thunderstorms. Observational reanalysis data and climate models indicate that dry air 1–3 km above the Earth’s surface can curtail convective storms, allowing humid heatwaves to intensify on the ground. This effect is likely to be exacerbated by increasing global temperatures.