000
AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jan 08 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale warning remains in effect for a
portion of the extreme north-central waters, namely the waters
north of 30N between a strong cold front that is analyzed from
31N50W to 25N50W and to the eastern tip of Cuba and 47W. These
gale conditions consist of southwest to west winds of 20 to 30 kt
with frequent gusts to 40 kt, with seas peaking to around 18 or
19 ft. These winds are forecast to diminish to strong to near
gale-force this afternoon, and continue to diminish further to
fresh to strong speeds tonight into Thu as they shift to the far
northeast forecast waters. Significant northwest swell producing
seas greater than 12 ft will continue to propagate behind the
front. A reinforcing cold front may bring another round of gale-
force winds to the offshore waters north of 29N and and east of
70W by Thu through Fri. This will also reinforce the swell
event, with very rough to high seas persisting in the waters
north of 18N and east of 65W, and also north of 30N between 65W
and 75W through the upcoming weekend.
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: An area of low pressure is expected
to track northeastward along the Texas coast and across the
northwestern Gulf late Thu afternoon or early Thu evening, and
then intensify through Fri. This system is expected to bring
strong to gale-force winds and very rough seas across the
northern half of the Gulf into early on Fri.
Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large long-period northwest swell
with period of 14 to 16 seconds continues to propagate across the
central subtropical Atlantic. Peak seas along 31N between 35W and
50W are to 18 ft, with seas in excess of 12 ft extending as far
south as 20N between 26W and 42W and south to 27N between 42W
and 68W. In addition, significant swell that is partially
associated with the cold front described above in the Atlantic
Gale Warning Special Feature section will propagate into the
region prolonging the very rough seas into the upcoming weekend.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on
the areas above.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ
passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues
to 03N20W to 02N28W and to near 01S37W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 09W and
15W, within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 13W and 16W and
between 28W and 32W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between
28W and 32W. Similar activity is within 30 nm north of the ITCZ
between 22W and 25W, and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between
19W and 21W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning that is currently in effect for most of the
northern Gulf Waters.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted over the far western
sections of the Gulf due to a tight pressure gradient between
strong high pressure ridging over eastern Mexico and troughing
present in the southwestern Gulf. Seas with these winds are
peaking to around 9 ft, with the exception of higher seas of 7 to
10 ft in the west- central Gulf from 22N to 26N west of 94W.
Moderate to fresh northeast winds are present across the rest of
the Gulf as high pressure continues to build over the region. Seas
with these winds are generally 4 to 6 ft.
Satellite imagery depicts overcast mostly low and mid-level
clouds, with embedded patches of light rain and drizzle blanket
just about the entire western Gulf.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong northerly winds over the
far western Gulf sections will continue until Thu morning .Elsewhere
in the Gulf, the gradient related to building high pressure will
induce moderate to fresh north to northeast winds through Thu. An
area of low pressure is expected to track northeastward along the
Texas coast and across the northwestern Gulf late Thu afternoon
or early Thu evening, and then intensify through Fri. This system
is expected to bring strong to gale-force winds and very rough
seas across the northern half of the Gulf into early on Fri. An
attendant cold front will reach from near southeastern Louisiana
to the southwestern Gulf at that time, followed by strong to near
gale-force northerly winds along with seas of 8 to 11 ft.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A dissipating stationary front stretches from the eastern tip of
Cuba to 18N81W and to the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly fresh northeast
winds along with seas to 8 ft are northwest of this boundary
while fresh to strong northeast to east winds are southeast of
the boundary to the southeast and south of Jamaica between 73W
and the coast of Central America, including offshore Colombia,
as was noted in recent ASCAT data. The strong winds are confined
to off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these
winds, except for higher seas of 7 to 9 ft south of 14N between
75W and 78W. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, trades are of
gentle to moderate speeds along with seas of 4-7 ft.
A surface to low-level trough is analyzed in the eastern Caribbean
from 17N66W to near 13N67W. Latest satellite imagery indicates
broken to scattered to low clouds from 13N to 18N between 63W and
68W. Scattered showers with gusty winds are possible with these
clouds.
For the forecast, the aforementioned northeast winds and
associated seas northwest of the dissipating front are expected
to change little through this evening. Afterward, high pressure
building in the wake of the front, supporting moderate to fresh
northeast winds in the northwestern Caribbean through Fri. Fresh
to strong winds off Colombia and in the south-central part of
the basin will continue into Thu morning.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
on Gale conditions for a portion of the north-central waters
east of a cold front, and on a Significant Swell event impacting
a large portion of the central and western waters.
A cold front is analyzed from 31N50W to 25N50W and to the eastern
tip of Cuba. Besides the gale winds east of the front as described
above under Special Features, strong to near gale southwest to
west winds are east of the front to near 40W and north of 25N
as detected by recent ASCAT data. Seas with these winds are 14
to 18 ft due to northwest swell. Seas in excess of 8 ft are
north of 25N between 57W and 75W in the western Atlantic.
Moderate northwest to north winds prevail outside of this area
with seas of 4-7 ft seas. High pressure ridging stretches from
northern Africa west-southwestward to 22N40W and to near Leeward
Islands. The associated gradient is allowing for generally
moderate to fresh trades to be south of 15N, and mainly gentle
in speeds north of 15N.
For the forecast west of 55W, outside those conditions described
above under Special Features, a reinforcing cold front is
expected to bring another round of gale- force winds to the
offshore waters north of 29N and east of 65W Thu afternoon through
Fri. This will also reinforce the swell event, with very rough to
high seas persisting in waters north of 18N and east of 77W
through the weekend. A third frontal system this weekend could
bring yet another round of increasing winds and seas.
$$
Aguirre
