681 
AXNT20 KNHC 082338
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jan 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N50W to near
the eastern tip of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Earlier gale-
force winds ahead of the far northern portion of the front have
recently diminishing to 20-30 kt, with fresh to strong SW winds
elsewhere north of 26N within 300-600 nm ahead of the front, while
fresh to strong W-NW winds are north of 30N and west of the front
to 60W. The front is forecast to weaken and eventually stall from
near 31N43W to near the Mona Passage early Thu afternoon, while a
reinforcing front dives south of 31N, extending from near Bermuda
to the central Bahamas then. Gale-force winds will accompany this
reinforcing front, across the waters north of 28N and east of 70W
on either side of the front. The reinforcing front will quickly 
reach from 31N45W to near Puerto Rico by Fri afternoon with gales
continuing on either side, with the front and associated gales
finally weakening/diminishing by Sat afternoon as it extends from
31N35W to near the NE Caribbean Sea. Looking ahead, yet another
front may move off the SE United States late Fri night/early Sat
with another round of gale-force winds possible ahead of it. Those
gale winds are forecast to push eastward with the front through
the weekend, mainly north of 29N.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A frontal low pressure is expected
to move off southeastern Texas into the northwestern Gulf late Thu
afternoon or early Thu evening, and then intensify through Fri. 
This system is expected to bring strong to gale-force winds for 
the northwestern Gulf Thu night through Fri, and fresh to strong 
winds across the north-central and northeastern Gulf Fri through 
Sat. Seas in these areas are anticipated to be rough to very 
rough. In addition, the cold front associated with this low will 
produce strong to near-gale force NW to N winds and very rough 
seas over the west-central and southwestern Gulf Fri through Sat. 
Winds near Tampico and Veracruz might reach gale-force.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large long-period northwest swell
with wave periods of 14 to 16 seconds continues to propagate 
across the central subtropical Atlantic. An old, leading set of NW
swell supports seas of 12 to 14 ft north of 20N between 20W and 
40W, while a reinforcing set is across the waters north of 27N 
between 40W and 70W with seas of 12 to 18 ft, highest along 31N 
between 47W and 55W. The leading set of NW swell will decay to
less than 12 ft by early Thu while the reinforcing set continues
to swell across the north-central waters. Yet another set of
reinforcing swell will quickly move in Thu and Thu night, with
seas of 12 ft or greater north of 25N and east of 76W by Thu
evening, up to 20 ft near 31N57W. By Fri evening, seas of 12 ft or
greater will cover the majority of the waters north of 21N between
33W and 71W, with 20 to 23 ft seas north of 39N between 48W and
63W by then. Seas of 12 ft or greater are forecast to continue
spreading southeastward through at least the upcoming weekend.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on
the areas above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ 
passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues 
to 02N20W to near 01S36W. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm southeast of the ITCZ, and within 120 nm northwest of the
ITCZ west of 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning that is in place for most of the northern Gulf 
Waters.

Fresh to near gale-force northerly winds are noted over the far 
western sections of the Gulf due to a tight pressure gradient 
between strong high pressure ridging over eastern Mexico and 
troughing present in the southwestern Gulf. Seas with these winds 
are 7 to 11 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are present across 
the rest of the Gulf as high pressure continues to build over the 
region. Seas with these winds are generally 3 to 6 ft.

Satellite imagery depicts overcast mostly low and mid-level 
clouds, with embedded patches of light rain and drizzle blanket 
just about the entire western Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NW winds will persist 
across the western edge of the Gulf until Thu morning. Elsewhere 
in the Gulf, high pressure will continue to produce moderate to 
fresh N to NE winds through Thu. A frontal low pressure is 
expected to move off southeastern Texas into the northwestern Gulf
late Thu afternoon or early Thu evening, and then intensify 
through Fri. This system is expected to bring strong to gale-force
winds for the northwestern Gulf Thu night through Fri, and fresh 
to strong winds across the north-central and northeastern Gulf Fri
through Sat. Seas in these areas are anticipated to be rough to 
very rough. In addition, the cold front associated with this low 
will produce strong to near-gale force NW to N winds and very 
rough seas over the west-central and southwestern Gulf Fri through
Sat. Winds near Tampico and Veracruz might reach gale-force.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front stretches from the eastern tip of 
Cuba and just west of the Windward Passage to across portions of
the NW Caribbean to near the Gulf of Honduras at 16.5N87W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are west of this boundary, with similar
winds found near and downwind of the Windward Passage. Seas are 5
to 7 ft south of 20N and west of the boundary, as well as near the
Yucatan Channel. Fresh to locally strong winds are observed 
offshore NW Colombia and offshore Nicaragua due to locally tight 
pressure gradients, with seas of 5 to 8 ft across both local 
areas. Mainly gentle to moderate trades are over the remainder of 
the basin, along with 3 to 5 ft seas.

A surface to low-level trough is analyzed in the eastern Caribbean 
from 17N66W to near 12N67W. Latest satellite imagery indicates
broken to scattered to low clouds from 13N to 18N between 64W and
70W. Scattered showers with gusty winds are possible with these 
clouds. 

For the forecast, the stationary front will continue to weaken 
and then dissipate later tonight. In the wake of this front, a 
surface ridge extending southward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico 
should sustain moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate to 
rough seas across the western Caribbean through early Fri morning.
Afterward, this high is going to build eastward into the western 
Atlantic through early next week, causing these winds and seas to 
also shift eastward into the central Caribbean. In addition, winds
at the south-central basin will pulse to strong occasionally 
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information 
on the potential for several rounds of gale-force winds over
primarily the northerly waters through the next several days, and
on an associated Significant Swell event impacting a large 
portion of the central and western waters.

The cold front discussed above from 31N50W to near the eastern 
tip of Cuba and the Windward Passage, has mainly gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere west of it under a broad ridge of high
pressure. Seas of 8 ft or greater are north of 24N and east of
75W, with 4 to 7 ft seas south and west of there to the coast
including the Bahamas. To the east of the front, a ridge dominates
the open waters stretching from near the Canary Islands
southwestward to just north of Puerto Rico. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are found right under the ridge, with mainly
moderate NE-E winds to southeast and south of it. Seas are mainly
4 to 7 ft south of 23N and west of 57W, as well as from the Cabo
Verde Islands southeastward, and 8 ft or greater across the
remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds will 
persist ahead of the cold front mainly north of 27N through 
tonight. Meanwhile, large long-period NW swell will sustain very 
rough to high seas across the waters north of 26N through Thu 
morning. A reinforcing cold front is expected to bring strong to 
gale-force W to NW winds north of 27N and east of 70W Thu 
afternoon through Sat. This will also prolong very rough to high 
seas in the central and eastern Atlantic through the weekend. In 
the long term, a third frontal system this weekend could bring yet
another round of increasing winds and seas east of Florida and 
northeast of the Bahamas. 

$$
Lewitsky