4.9 Annual Variation

4.9 Annual Variation

It has long been recognized that the number of TCs in a given region varies from year to year. The exact causes of this remain largely unknown. However, some work in this field has yielded some promising results. Gray (1984a,b) has developed a method for predicting in May the number of TCs that will occur in the North Atlantic during the period of June - November. A similar application to the western North Pacific has been less successful.

Section 4.8 Section 4.10

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