6.2 Formation Forecasting Procedures at NHC

The following information is derived from Sheets (1990) and the National Hurricane Operations Plan (NHOP, 1995). At NHC a 24 hour continuous watch is maintained in the satellite analysis unit. This group is responsible for providing significant tropical weather advisories for the eastern Pacific and the Atlantic. Geostationary satellite imagery is monitored for tropical weather activity on a continuous basis. This information is used in conjunction with synoptic observations and aircraft data to determine the occurrence of TC formation. Satellite analysts work closely with TC forecasters to determine when and where formation is likely to occur.

Several analyses are performed routinely for the NHC area of responsibility, primarily south of 4ON to the Equator, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Analysis and interpretive products are distributed over national and international circuits. These products include tropical weather discussions for the entire area and Satellite Interpretation Messages (SIMS) issued every six hours. SIMS contain general information for the entire area and specific mesoscale discussions for Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the northern Gulf of Mexico. In addition, synoptic surface analyses are completed and transmitted every six hours and an entire set of near surface, 200-hPa, shear, deep-level mean, lower- and upper-level mean charts, heavily influenced by satellite derived data, are transmitted every 12 hours. Also, a detailed Gulf Stream and sea- surface temperature analysis for the Gulf of Mexico as well as general sea-surface temperature analysis are prepared thrice weekly and made available to marine interests through a dial-up system.

Marine forecast products include high seas forecasts issued at six hourly intervals for the North Atlantic south of 32N, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico as well as the eastern North Pacific east of 14OW, and south of 30N. Aviation products include international area forecasts for essentially the same areas and international SIGMETS (bulletins describing weather hazards for large aircraft) for the San Juan, Miami, Houston and Oakland (south of 30N) flight information regions (FIRS) (Fig. 3.19).

NHC issues Tropical Weather Outlooks (TWOs) on the Atlantic and eastern Pacific daily during the hurricane season. They are transmitted at 0530, 1130, 1730, and 2230 Eastern Local Time in the Atlantic and at 0400, 1000, 1600, and 2200 UTC in the eastern Pacific. The outlook briefly describes both stable and potentially unstable areas out to 48 hrs. A monthly tropical weather summary of the Atlantic TC activity is prepared and issued during hurricane season.

Section 6.1 Section 6.3

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