MainContributors: C. R. Sampson, NRL, R. A. Jeffries, LT, USN/NLMOC, C. J. Neumann*, and J.-H. Chu, NRL
*Science Applications International Corporation, Monterey, CA
Initially published as NRL Report NRL/PU/7541--95-0012, October 1995; HTML conversion date: 22 March 1998
Abstract
One of the keys to safe and successful naval operations in the tropics is a thorough understanding of tropical meteorology. The Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide is designed primarily as a ready reference for weather forecasters required to provide tropical meteorology support to staff commanders. This technical note provides a comprehensive overview of tropical cyclone intensity forecast support and is chapter 6 of the reference guide. Subjects discussed include tropical cyclone intensity forecast procedures, major warning center operations, and tropical cyclone intensity terminology.
KEY WORDS:
tropical cyclone intensity and intensity change, tropical cyclone intensity forecast, tropical cyclone intensity climatology, Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Checklist.
1.1 Intensity Forecasting vs. Motion Forecasting
1.2 Lack of Objective Intensity Guidance
1.3 Impact of Incorrect Intensity Forecasts
2.1 Measurement of Tropical Cyclone Winds
2.2 Wind Speed Averaging Times
2.3 Gusts
2.4 Intensity Forecast Errors
3.1 US DOD Intensity Classification
3.2 US DOC Intensity Classification
3.3 Intensity Trends
4.1 Formation or Genesis Stage
4.2 Intensification or Deepening Stage
4.3 Mature Stage
4.4 Decay Stage
5.1 Upper Tropospheric Anticyclones
5.2 Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough
5.3 Other Factors Affecting Intensity
6.1 JTWC Intensity Forecast
6.2 NHC Intensity Forecast
6.3 DOD Single Station Intensity Forecast Procedures
APPENDIX A: Mean Wind Speed Conversion Tables
APPENDIX B: Description of the Dvorak Technique
APPENDIX C: Physical Processes Associated with Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes
APPENDIX D: JTWC Experimental Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis and Forecast Checklist
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This project was partially sponsored by the Oceanographer of the Navy through the Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command Program Office (PMW-175), Program Element 0603207N. We thank Ron Englebretson, Dick Gilmore, Eleanor Estes, John Kent and Ken Richards at SAIC for their editorial expertise and draftsmanship in preparing this document. The authors also thank Steve Bishop at NRL, CWO Rich Courtney at FNMOC, Drs. Ted Tsui and Steve Burk at NRL, Prof. Russ Elsberry at NPS and Ms. Winona Carlisle at NRL for their contributions.
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Chapter 6