Return to Home Page The tropical cyclone represents an organized tropospheric disturbance that deviates significantly from the tropospheric normal state. Consequently tropical cyclone forecasting is a difficult, specialized task in the realm of modern theoretical and applied meteorology. Worldwide improvements in tropical cyclone forecasting skills in recent decades has been largely due to the international and regional collaboration on communications, development of powerful observational tools including data acquisition and processing systems, a growing demand for timely warnings and accurate forecasts, and improved conceptual, theoretical and numerical weather prediction models of tropical cyclone structure and motion. The aim of the Tropical Cyclone Forecasters' Reference Guide (TCFRG), published in paper format since 1992 by the Naval Research Laboratory, is to offer an account of these issues and investigations, and their status and results to tropical cyclone forecasters. In doing so, it is hoped that the traditional gap between forecasters and researchers can be further identified and narrowed.
Knowledge of general meteorology, interest in tropical cyclone phenomena and experience of weather forecasting will enable use of the TCFRG. It is expected that a majority of TCFRG readers will be Navy tropical cyclone forecasters ranking from Aerographer Mates to experienced officers. The TCFRG is thus designed to be a self-contained text with very few mathematical formulas; however, a large number of references to literature are provided to enable review of the original papers. This TCFRG does not address advanced hydrodynamic and thermodynamic theories and techniques. Experienced forecasters or specialized textbooks should be consulted for more information on these topics.
The electronic version of TCFRG consists of seven chapters and Tropical Cyclone Links and Web Sites. Chapter 1 presents a summary of who is doing what, and forecast accuracy, difficulty and variability. Chapter 2 is a short review of tropical large-scale climatology and synoptic models. Chapter 3 delineates the tropical cyclone formation problems and presents a tropical cyclone formation alert checklist used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Chapter 4 focuses on tropical cyclone motion, including a survey of tropical cyclone motion hypotheses and motion forecasting techniques. Chapter 5 discusses tropical cyclone forecast aids including empirical, statistical and dynamic aids. Chapter 6 defines the tropical cyclone intensity and emphasizes single station/ship intensity forecast procedures. Chapter 7 presents tropical cyclone structure. Navy tropical cyclone forecasters must understand operational jargon and be familiar with all checklists and products issued from forecast centers, in order to disseminate important tropical cyclone warning messages.
The following list provides chapter-by-chapter highlight of the TCFRG:
WHAT IS IT? WHAT DOES IT DO? WHO IS IT FOR?
Chapter 1 Provides an overview of Readers who want to know
Tropical Cyclone US tropical cyclone some operational tropical
Warning Support forecast agencies' areas cyclone (TC) forecast
of responsibilities and systems.
logistics.
Chapter 2 Displays climatology and Readers who are
Tropical synoptic models in the interested in the mean
Climatology tropics. atmospheric state.
Chapter 3 Offers information on Forecasters who issue
Tropical Cyclone tropical cyclone formation. TC Formation Alert
Formation messages.
Chapter 4 Provides tropical cyclone Forecasters.
Tropical Cyclone motion forecast methods.
Motion
Chapter 5 Discusses tropical cyclone Forecasters who use
Numerical Track motion forecast aids. objective TC motion
Forecast Guidance aids.
Chapter 6 Provides tropical cyclone Forecasters who use
Tropical Cyclone intensity forecast TC Intensity Forecast
Intensity methods. Checklist forms.
Chapter 7 Contains information Readers who want
Tropical Cyclone on tropical cyclone detailed knowledge on
Structure structure. TC structure.
Tropical Cyclone Provides the names and Readers who want to
Links and Web URLs (universal resource browse other TC sites
Sites locators) of tropical on the World-Wide Web.
cyclone web sites.