Company Profile: American Airlines, Inc. (AA) Is A US-based Airline and Also The Largest Airline in The
Company Profile: American Airlines, Inc. (AA) Is A US-based Airline and Also The Largest Airline in The
Company Profile: American Airlines, Inc. (AA) Is A US-based Airline and Also The Largest Airline in The
American Airlines, Inc. (AA) is a US-based airline and also the largest airline in the
world in terms of total passengers-miles transported and fleet size, and the second-largest
airline in the world (behind Air France-KLM) in terms of total operating revenues. A
wholly owned subsidiary of the AMR Corporation, the airline is headquartered in Fort
Worth, Texas, adjacent to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. American operates
scheduled flights throughout the United States, as well as flights to Canada, Latin
America, the Caribbean, Western Europe, Japan, China, and India. The Chairman,
President, and CEO of AA are Gerard Arpey. In 2005, the airline flew more than 138
billion revenue passenger miles (RPMs).
Competitors
DAL = Delta Air Lines Inc.
NWA = Northwest Airlines Corp.
UAUA = UAL Corporation
PERIOD ENDING
31-Dec-07
31-Dec-06
31-Dec-05
Total Revenue
22,935,000
22,563,000
20,712,000
Cost of Revenue
16,900,000
16,583,000
15,719,000
6,035,000
5,980,000
4,993,000
3,868,000
3,763,000
3,922,000
1,202,000
1,157,000
1,164,000
--
965,000
1,060,000
(93,000)
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Research Development
Selling General and Administrative
Non Recurring
Others
433,000
172,000
124,000
1,398,000
1,232,000
31,000
Interest Expense
894,000
1,001,000
892,000
504,000
231,000
(861,000)
Minority Interest
504,000
231,000
(861,000)
Non-recurring Events
Discontinued Operations
Extraordinary Items
Other Items
Net Income
504,000
231,000
(861,000)
$504,000
$231,000
($861,000)
PERIOD ENDING
31-Dec-07 31-Dec-06
31-Dec-05
Assets
Current Assets
Cash And Cash Equivalents
576,000
589,000
648,000
4,803,000
4,594,000
3,676,000
Net Receivables
1,027,000
988,000
991,000
Inventory
601,000
506,000
515,000
222,000
225,000
334,000
7,229,000
6,902,000
6,164,000
Goodwill
Intangible Assets
Accumulated Amortization
Other Assets
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges
Total Assets
1,156,000
1,167,000
1,194,000
3,033,000
3,313,000
3,591,000
Liabilities
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
7,434,000
7,156,000
7,081,000
1,049,000
1,349,000
1,239,000
8,483,000
8,505,000
8,320,000
Other Liabilities
7,018,000
8,833,000
8,776,000
320,000
372,000
421,000
Minority Interest
Negative Goodwill
Total Liabilities
Stockholders' Equity
Misc Stocks Options Warrants
Preferred Stock
Common Stock
255,000
228,000
195,000
Retained Earnings
Treasury Stock
(367,000)
(367,000)
(779,000)
Capital Surplus
3,489,000
2,718,000
2,258,000
670,000
(1,291,000)
(979,000)
2,657,000
(606,000)
(1,478,000)
31-Dec-07
31-Dec-06
31-Dec-05
504,000
231,000
(861,000)
Depreciation
1,202,000
1,157,000
1,164,000
(42,000)
101,000
30,000
(41,000)
3,000
(156,000)
Changes In Liabilities
480,000
420,000
879,000
Changes In Inventories
(128,000)
(7,000)
(59,000)
(40,000)
34,000
27,000
1,935,000
1,939,000
1,024,000
(714,000)
(530,000)
(681,000)
Investments
207,000
(918,000)
(867,000)
273,000
83,000
9,000
(234,000)
(1,365,000)
(1,539,000)
587,000
630,000
279,000
(2,321,000)
(1,366,000)
254,000
59,000
145,000
(1,675,000)
(591,000)
533,000
$26,000
($17,000)
$18,000
operating activities their inventories and liabilities was increased. After that American
Airline had a huge cash inflow from the operating activities.
In the investing activities, a huge amount of cash was outflow, because their net
borrowing increased.
At the cash flow of year 2007, American Airline has little amount of cash and
cash equivalents.
@AMRDI 2.50
4.10 4.30
40
6.00
Puts
@AMRPI
0.05
0.12 -0.03
0.10
1717
@AMRDJ 3.00
3.10 3.30
548
7.00
@AMRPJ
0.10
10
1424
@AMRDK 2.25
90
1081
8.00
@AMRPK 0.15
0.10 0.15
35
2313
@AMRDL 1.40
3019
9.00
27
1522
@AMRDB 0.70
7518
2388
@AMRDM 0.35
4688
856
0.10 0.20
97
4255
922
@AMRDO 0.10
0.05 0.10
1342
2.85 3.00
1348
@AMRDP 0.10
0.10
5748
3.80 4.10
1042
@AMRDC 0.05
May 08
0.10
1632
4.80 5.00
139
@AMRDN 0.15
@AMREI 4.10
4.10 4.40
65
6.00
@AMREJ 3.30
569
66
@AMREL 1.90
24
Puts
@AMRQI
0.20
0.10 0.20
733
7.00
@AMRQJ
0.30
0.20 0.30
1145
7.50
@AMRQU
1408
8.00
10
2301
2851
9.00
2185
6280
4938
@AMREM 0.90
28
10615
9226
8950
4244
@AMREU
0.15 1.80 1.95
-
0.85 0.95
1.65 1.80
23
2118
93
1412
@AMREC 0.20
15
14103
56
8271
0.15 0.25
Aug 08
Last
@AMRHI
4.60
@AMRHJ
@AMRHU
Chg
Bid
Ask
Vol
Open Int
Strike
Puts
Last
Chg
Bid
Ask
Vol
4.60 5.00
103
6.00
@AMRTI
0.65
60
3.70
4.00 4.20
319
7.00
@AMRTJ
0.95
0.85 0.95
3.60
3.60 3.80
144
7.50
@AMRTU
1.15
1.00 1.10
@AMRHK
3.30
273
8.00
@AMRTK
1.25
60
@AMRHL
2.55
2.70 2.80
701
9.00
@AMRTL
1.55
@AMRHB
2.15
2.20 2.35
21
1827
10.00
@AMRTB
2.15
@AMRHM
1.80
0.05
1.75 1.90
33
428
11.00
@AMRTM 2.85
2.55 2.70
@AMRHN
1.55
0.15
1.40 1.55
869
12.00
@AMRTN
3.20
@AMRHV
1.30
0.05
1.25 1.40
552
12.50
@AMRTV
3.60
20
@AMRHO
1.15
1.10 1.25
696
13.00
@AMRTO
4.41
3.90 4.00
@AMRHP
0.95
0.05
0.85 1.00
10
1406
14.00
@AMRTP
5.00
4.60 4.80
@AMRHC
0.70
70
2162
15.00
@AMRTC
5.90
5.40 5.60
Nov 08
Puts
@AMRKI 4.20
5.10 5.30
30
6.00
@AMRWI
1.20
0.95 1.05
91
@AMRKJ 4.00
4.40 4.70
35
7.00
@AMRWJ
1.45
1.25 1.40
326
@AMRKK 3.50
3.80 4.00
54
8.00
@AMRWK 1.90
1.65 1.80
105
@AMRKL 3.30
3.30 3.50
377
9.00
58
196
@AMRKB 2.90
10
483
2.60 2.75
420
@AMRKM 2.30
2.35 2.55
1021
3.10 3.30
190
40
412
3.70 3.90
222
1142
4.40 4.60
140
20
147
62
Jan 09
@VMRAU 4.70
Puts
4.40 4.60
367
7.50
10725
27
5213
2.85 3.10
44613
7826
6.00 6.30
31168
@VMRAC 1.35
1.40 1.55
Jan 10
Puts
@WARAU 5.00
5.20 5.60
20
2.45 2.75
1493
@WARAB 4.00
4.20 4.50
1221
4.10 4.20
2181
@WARAC 2.60
2.70 2.95
3769
7.10 7.50
8461
Period Ending:
12/31/2007
12/31/2006
12/31/2005
Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio
85%
81%
74%
Quick Ratio
76%
73%
64%
Cash Ratio
63%
61%
52%
3,816%
4,459%
4,022%
26%
27%
24%
Operating Margin
4%
5%
-0%
Pre-Tax Margin
2%
1%
-4%
Inventory Turnover
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin
Profit Margin
2%
1%
-4%
Pre-Tax ROE
19%
-38%
58%
19%
-38%
58%
9.85
34.00
8.10
226.242
2.89
2,456.695
249.411
249.000
N/A
0.00
0.00
.78
.85
379.87
419.35
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM)
Price/Sales (TTM)
Price/Book (MRQ)
Price/Cash Flow (TTM)
Per Share Data
Earnings (TTM) $
Sales (TTM) $
Book Value (MRQ) $
Cash Flow (TTM) $
Cash (MRQ) $
Mgmt Effectiveness
Return on Equity (TTM)
Return on Assets (TTM)
Return on Investment (TTM)
Profitability
Gross Margin (TTM) %
Operating Margin (TTM) %
Profit Margin (TTM) %
5.77
.11
.93
1.44
1.71
80.05
10.65
5.96
18.18
2.48
1.75
2.48
21.83
4.21
2.20
From consensus recommendation, we can see that the most of the analysts suggest
that hold the stock. Out of the fourteen analysts, four analysts suggest to hold the stock.
From the twelve months price ranges, we see that the analysts the price of the
stock may move upward from $10.16 to $ 14.
If we look into the earnings surprise, the earning per share (EPS) was moving
downward in December 2007. But the reported EPS is less than the estimated EPS, the
company was minimize its lose. American Airlines reported EPA is greater that
reported EPS most of the time, which indicates it is performing well.
Out of 14 analysts twelve have changed their opinion about the company. Eleven
analysts change their opinion about stock price which the price of the stock will
downward.
From earning growth, we can see that the industrys earnings growth is negative
which indicates that Airline industry is not performing well comparative to other
industry. It is also a negative impression about the industry. But American Airline may
do well in this industry because of its reputation and large air-crafts.
From the P/E ratio, we find that American Airlines P/E ratio is nil. Because, it
does not give any dividend.
From the consensus earning forecasts, we see that fourteen analysts forecast the
mean EPS for the year 2008 will be -3.36 and twelve analysts forecast the mean EPS for
the year 2009 will be -1.13.
We can see in the technical chart the price of the stock has a bearish trend before
the January 2008. But after the April 2008, the price may go up because in every summer
it performs well and makes a huge profit.
@AMRHI 4.60
4.60 5.00
@AMRHK 3.30
@AMRHB 2.15
2.20 2.35
103
6.00
Puts
@AMRTI
60
1034
273
60
1371
21
1827
5471
10
1406
4.60 4.80
707
70
2162
5.40 5.60
835
@AMRHP 0.95
Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Aug 08 are given
below for the highest open interests.
S = $10.16
X = $15
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.32
T = 7months = .53 years
ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T
N (d1 ) = N (0.5671)
= N (0.56) 0.71 N (0.56) N (0.57)
= 0.2877 0.71( 0.2877 0.2848 )
= 0.2856
N (d2 ) = N (1.0236)
= N (1.02) 0.36 N (1.02) N (1.03)
= 0.1539 0.36 ( 0.1539 0.1515 )
= 0.1530
C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.5671) 15 e0.050.53 N (1.0236)
= 10.16 0.2856 15 0.9738 0.1530
= 2.902 2.235
= 0.667
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.5671)
= 1 0.2856
= 0.7144
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (1.0236)
= 1 0.1530
= 0.8470
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 15 e0.050.53 0.8470 10.16 0.7144
= 12.37 7.14
= 5.23
Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Aug 08 are given
below for the 2nd highest open interests.
S = $10.16
X = $10
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.3230
T = 7months = 0.58 years
N (d1 ) = N (0.3211)
= N (0.32) + 0.11 N (0.33) N (0.32)
= 0.6255 + 0.11( 0.6293 0.6255 )
= 0.6259
N (d2 ) = N (0.1354)
= N (0.13) 0.54 N (0.13) N (0.12)
= 0.4483 0.54 ( 0.4483 0.4443 )
= 0.4461
ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T
d2 = d1 T
= 0.3211 0.4565
= 0.1354
C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.3211) 10 e0.050.53 N (0.1354)
= 10.16 0.6259 10 0.9738 0.4461
= 6.359 4.344
= 2.015
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.3211)
= 1 0.6259
= 0.3741
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (0.1254)
= 1 0.4461
= 0.5539
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 10 e0.050.53 0.5539 10.16 0.3741
= 5.394 3.801
= 1.59
Nov 08
Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Nov 08 are given
below for the highest open interests.
S = $10.16
X = $13
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.3204
d2 = d1 T
= 0.0732 0.5713
= 0.5445
N (d1 ) = N (0.0732)
= N (0.07) 0.32 N (0.07) N (0.08)
N (d2 ) = N (0.5445)
= N (0.54) 0.54 N (0.54) N (0.55)
= 0.2946 0.54 ( 0.2946 0.2877 )
= 0.2909
C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.0732) 13 e0.050.83 N (0.5445)
= 10.16 0.5292 13 0.9593 0.2909
= 5.376 3.628
= 1.748
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.0732)
= 1 0.5292
= 0.4708
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (0.5445)
= 1 0.2909
= 0.7091
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 13 e0.050.83 0.7091 10.16 0.4708
= 8.84 4.78
= 4.06
Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Nov 08 are given
below for the 2nd highest open interests.
S = $10.16
X = $11
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.3230
T = 10months = 0.83 years
ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T
N (d1 ) = N (0.2198)
= N (0.21) + 0.98 N (0.22) N (0.21)
= 0.5832 + 0.98 ( 0.5871 0.5832 )
= 0.5870
N (d2 ) = N (0.3515)
= N (0.35) 0.15 N (0.35) N (0.36)
= 0.3632 0.15 ( 0.3632 0.3594 )
= 0.3526
C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.2198) 11 e0.050.83 N (0.3515)
= 10.16 0.5870 11 0.9593 0.3526
= 5.95 3.72
= 2.23
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.2198)
= 1 0.5870
= 0.4130
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (0.3515)
= 1 0.3526
= 0.5474
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 11 e0.050.83 0.5474 10.16 0.4130
= 5.777 4.196
= 1.58
Jan 09
Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Jan 09 are given
below for the highest open interests.
S = $10.16
X = $15
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.32
T = 12months = 1years
ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T
N (d1 ) = N (0.2280)
= N (0.22) 0.80 N (0.22) N (0.23)
= 0.4129 0.80 ( 0.4129 0.4090 )
= 0.4098
N (d2 ) = N (0.8551)
= N (0.85) 0.51 N (0.85) N (0.86)
Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Jan 09 are given
below for the 2nd highest open interests.
S = $10.16
X = $10
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.32
T = 12months = 1years
ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T
N (d1 ) = N (0.4186)
= N (0.41) + 0.86 N (0.42) N (0.41)
= 0.6591 + 0.86 ( 0.6628 0.6591)
= 0.6623
N (d2 ) = N (0.2085)
= N (0.20) 0.85 N (0.20) N (0.21)
Jan 10
Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Jan 10 are given
below for the highest open interests.
S = $10.16
X = $15
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.32
T = 24months = 2 years
ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T
N (d1 ) = N (0.1168)
= N (0.11) + 0.68 N (0.12) N (0.11)
= 0.5438 + 0.68 ( 0.5478 0.5438 )
= 0.5410
N (d2 ) = N (0.7701)
= N (0.77) 0.01 N (0.77) N (0.78)
= 0.2206 0.01( 0.2206 0.2177 )
= 0.2206
C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.5740) 10 e0.052 N (0.3129)
= 10.16 0.5410 15 0.9048 0.2206
= 5.497 3.994
= 1.503
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.5740)
= 1 0.5410
= 0.4590
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (0.3129)
= 1 0.2206
= 0.7794
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 15 e0.052 0.7794 10.16 0.4590
= 10.58 4.66
= 5.92
Under The Black& Schole Model, the actual Call and put prices of Jan 10 are given
below for the 2nd highest open interests.
S = $10.16
X = $10
r = 5%
V = 2 = 39.3230
T = 24months = 2 years
ln s + ( r + 0.5 2 )T
x
d1 =
T
N (d1 ) = N (0.5740)
= N (0.57) + 0.40 N (0.58) N (0.57)
= 0.7157 + 0.40 ( 0.7190 0.7157 )
= 0.7170
N (d2 ) = N (0.3129)
= N (0.31) 0.29 N (0.31) N (0.32)
= 0.3783 0.29 ( 0.3783 0.3745 )
= 0.3771
C = SN (d1 ) Xe rT N (d2 )
= 10.16 N (0.5740) 10 e0.052 N (0.3129)
= 10.16 0.7170 10 0.9048 0.3771
= 7.2947 3.412
= 3.9827
N (d1 ) = 1 N (d1 )
= 1 N (0.5740)
= 1 0.7175
= 0.2825
N ( d 2 ) = 1 N (d 2 )
= 1 N (0.3129)
= 1 0.3771
= 0.5229
P = Xe rT N (d2 ) SN (d1 )
= 10 e0.052 0.5229 10.16 0.2825
= 4.73 2.97
= 1.76