1 - Forecasting

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Forecasting

Evaluation of forecasting

One step ahead forecast

Accuracy measures
Mean average Deviation: Mean square error: Mean absolute percentage error: [
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Moving Average Method (MA)


MA(N): N-Period moving average

Exponential Smoothing
Or ( )

To obtain the same error distribution as in MA(N):

Regression analysis
Fig(1)

Slope: Intercept:

Double Exponential Smoothing

Initially assume

Or, use regression method to construct a straight line from a set of data so that Sheet 1 Problem 2 The weekly number of incidents in which cars beak the red light signal in Remaya square in the last six weeks has been:

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