Inflation in Pakistan
Inflation in Pakistan
Inflation in Pakistan
INTRODUCTION
Economists generally agree that high rates of inflation and hyperinflation are
caused by an excessive growth of the money supply. Views on which factors
determine low to moderate rates of inflation are more varied. Low or
moderate inflation may be attributed to fluctuations in real demand for goods
and services, or changes in available supplies such as during scarcities, as
well as to growth in the money supply. However, the consensus view is that a
long sustained period of inflation is caused by money supply growing faster
than the rate of economic growth. Today, most economists favor a low steady
rate of inflation.
Low (as opposed to zero or negative) inflation may reduce the severity of
economic recessions by enabling the labor market to adjust more quickly in a
downturn, and reducing the risk that a liquidity trap prevents monetary policy
from stabilizing the economy. The task of keeping the rate of inflation low and
stable is usually given to monetary authorities. Generally, these monetary
authorities are the central banks that control the size of the money supply
through the setting of interest rates, through open market operations, and
through the setting of banking reserve requirements
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Inflation originally referred to the debasement of the currency. When gold was
used as currency, gold coins could be collected by the government (e.g. the
king or the ruler of the region), melted down, mixed with other metals such
as silver, copper or lead, and reissued at the same nominal value. By diluting
the gold with other metals, the government could increase the total number
of coins issued without also needing to increase the amount of gold used to
make them. When the cost of each coin is lowered in this way, the
government profits from an increase in seignior age. This practice would
increase the money supply but at the same time lower the relative value of
each coin. As the relative value of the coins decrease, consumers would need
more coins to exchange for the same goods and services.
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DEMAND PULL INFLATION
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A reduction in direct or indirect taxation. If direct taxes are
reduced consumers have more real disposable income causing
demand to rise. A reduction in indirect taxes will mean that a given
amount of income will now buy a greater real volume of goods and
services. Both factors can take aggregate demand and real GDP higher
and beyond potential GDP.
4
The effects of an increase in AD on the price level can be shown in the next
two diagrams. Higher prices following an increase in demand lead to higher
output and profits for those businesses where demand is growing. The impact
on prices is greatest when SRAS is inelastic.
In the first diagram the SRAS curve is drawn as non-linear. In the second, the
macroeconomic equilibrium following an outward shift of AD takes the
economy beyond the equilibrium at potential GDP. This causes an
inflationary gap to appear which then triggers higher wage and other factor
costs. The effect of this is to cause an inward shift of SRAS taking real
national output back towards a macroeconomic equilibrium at Yfc but with
the general price level higher than it was before.
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6
THE WAGE PRICE SPIRAL– “EXPECTATIONS-INDUCED
INFLATION”
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8
ISSUES IN MEASURING INFLATION
Price index
This is the purpose of a price index, which is the combined price of a "basket"
of many goods and services. The combined price is the sum of the weighted
average prices of items in the "basket". A weighted price is calculated by
multiplying the unit price of an item to the number of those items the
average consumer purchases. Weighted pricing is a necessary means to
measuring the impact of individual unit price changes on the economy's
overall inflation. The Consumer Price Index, for example, uses data collected
by surveying households to determine what proportion of the typical
consumer's overall spending is spent on specific goods and services, and
weights the average prices of those items accordingly. Those weighted
average prices are combined to calculate the overall price. To better relate
price changes over time, indexes typically choose a "base year" price and
assign it a value of 100. Index prices in subsequent years are then expressed
in relation to the base year price.
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High or unpredictable inflation rates are regarded as harmful to an overall
economy. They add inefficiencies in the market, and make it difficult for
companies to budget or plan long-term. Inflation can act as a drag on
productivity as companies are forced to shift resources away from products
and services in order to focus on profit and losses from currency inflation.
Uncertainty about the future purchasing power of money discourages
investment and saving. And inflation can impose hidden tax increases, as
inflated earnings push taxpayers into higher income tax rates.
TYPES OF INFLATION
There are four main types of inflation with four different causes.
Demand-pull:
The most important inflation is called demand-pull or excess demand
inflation. It occurs when the total demand for goods and services in an
economy exceeds the available supply, so the prices for them rise in a
market economy. Historically this has been the most common type and
at times the most serious. Every war produces this type of inflation
because demand for war materials and manpower grows rapidly
without comparable shrinkage elsewhere. Other types of inflation occur
more readily in conjunction with demand-pull inflation.
Cost-push inflation:
Another type of inflation is called cost-push inflation. The name
suggests the cause--costs of production rise, for one reason or another,
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and force up the prices of finished goods and services. Often a rise in
wages in excess of any gains in labor productivity is what raises unit
costs of production and thus raises prices. This is less common than
demand-pull, but can occur independently as well as in conjunction
with it.
Newspapers that business is just waiting a bit to see how soon they
might raise their prices. An oligopolistic firm often realizes that if it
raises its prices, the other major firms in the industry will likely see
that as a goodtime to widen their profit margins too without suffering
much from price competition from the few other firms in the industry.
Sectoral inflation:
The fourth type is called sectoral inflation. The term applies whenever
any of the other three factors hits a basic industry causing inflation
there, and since the industry hit is a major supplier of many other
industries, as for example steel is, or oil is, that raises costs of the
industries using say steel or oil, and forces up prices there also, so
inflation becomes more widespread throughout the economy, although
it originated in just one basic sector.
Built-in inflation:
induced by adaptive expectations, often linked to the "price/wage
spiral" because it involves workers trying to keep their wages up (gross
wages have to increase above the CPI rate to net to CPI after-tax) with
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prices and then employers passing higher costs on to consumers as
higher prices as part of a "vicious circle." Built-in inflation reflects
events in the past, and so might be seen as hangover inflation.
Hoarding:
people buy consumer durables as stores of wealth in the absence of viable
alternatives as a means of getting rid of excess cash before it is devalued,
creating shortages of the hoarded objects.
Hyperinflation:
If inflation gets totally out of control (in the upward direction), it can grossly
interfere with the normal workings of the economy, hurting its ability to
supply.
Allocative efficiency:
a change in the supply or demand for a good will normally cause its price to
change, signalling to buyers and sellers that they should re-allocate resources
in response to the new market conditions. But when prices are constantly
changing due to inflation, genuine price signals get lost in the noise, so
agents are slow to respond to them. The result is a loss of allocative
efficiency.
Labor-market adjustments:
Keynesians believe that nominal wages are slow to adjust downwards. This
can lead to prolonged disequilibrium and high unemployment in the labor
market. Since inflation would lower the real wage if nominal wages are kept
constant, Keynesian argue that some inflation is good for the economy, as it
would allow labor markets to reach equilibrium faster.
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THEORIES OF INFLATION
There were different schools of thought as to the causes of inflation. Most can
be divided into two broad areas:
Quality theory
The quality theory of inflation rests on the expectation of a seller accepting
currency to be able to exchange that currency at a later time for goods that
are desirable as a buyer. The quantity theory of inflation rests on the quantity
equation of money, that relates the money supply, its velocity, and the
nominal value of exchanges. Adam Smith and David Hume proposed a
quantity theory of inflation for money, and a quality theory of inflation for
production.
Quantity theory
Currently, the quantity theory of money is widely accepted as an accurate
model of inflation in the long run. Consequently, there is now broad
agreement among economists that in the long run, the inflation rate is
essentially dependent on the growth rate of money supply. However, in the
short and medium term inflation may be affected by supply and demand
pressures in the economy, and influenced by the relative elasticity of wages,
prices and interest rates. The question of whether the short-term effects last
long enough to be important is the central topic of debate between
monetarist and Keynesian schools. In monetarism prices and wages adjust
quickly enough to make other factors merely marginal behavior on a general
trend-line. In the Keynesian view, prices and wages adjust at different rates,
and these differences have enough effects on real output to be "long term" in
the view of people in an economy.
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CAUSES OF INFLATION
Federal taxes:
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INFLATION IN PAKISTAN
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Yearly Inflation Rates of Pakistan ( 1990-91 = 100)
Inflation Rates based on Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale
Price Index (WPI) are
Period
SPI
CPI
WPI
1991-1992
10.54
10.58
9.84
1992-1993
10.71
9.83
7.36
1993-1994
11.79
11.27
11.40
1994-1995
15.01
13.02
16.00
1995-1996
10.71 16
10.79
11.10
HISTORICAL TRENDS
1970s: During the 1970s, the period of great structural changes and
uncertainty, the role of inflation expectations was quite evident. People
consider expected inflation while making their optimization decisions.
1980s: The 1980s were a decade of relatively low average inflation (7.2
per cent). Private sector borrowing, exchange rate depreciation and
adaptive expectations were the main factors behind this growth in consumer
prices. De-nationalization enlarged the private sector and, as a consequence,
private sector borrowing increased during this period.
Several supply and demand factors could be responsible for this surge in
inflation.
Supply-side shocks:
Can cause large fluctuations in food and oil prices, effects of which on
overall inflation, at times, can be so excessive that these cannot be
countered through demand management, including monetary policy.
The relationship between growth and inflation depends on the state of the
economy. High growth, without an increase in inflation, is possible if the
productive capacity or potential output of the economy is growing enough
to keep pace with demand. This is also possible if the actual output is
below the potential output and there is sufficient spare capacity available
to cope up with the demand pressures.
When the actual output catches up with the potential output, there
remains no spare capacity and the economy is working at full employment
level, any further gain in growth comes at the cost of rising inflation. If
demand continues to grow at this stage, and the productive capacity does
not expand, there is a serious threat of rapid inflation in the long run
without any additional growth in the output. A prolonged phase of rising
inflation in such a case can have severe consequences for the economy.
Indirect taxes:
Similarly, indirect taxes are also blamed as the main cause of inflation. The
indirect taxes, such as sales tax and excise duties raise the prices of
consumer goods. This creates inflationary pressure. On the other hand, direct
taxes reduce the take-home income and have anti-inflationary effect. A
substantial increase in support price of wheat is estimated to have an
inflationary effect on consumer prices, particularly food prices. This effect is
due to the fact that wheat and wheat-related products account for 5.1 per
cent of the CPI basket.
Consumer prices in the country soared 25% from a year earlier after gaining
23.9% in September, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said in Islamabad on
Monday. Pakistan may have to raise interest rates to receive a bailout, if IMF
insists on the same conditions it applied to loans for Iceland and Ukraine.
Higher borrowing costs may not bring inflation down soon as other conditions
attached to an IMF loan would likely include higher energy prices, economists
said.
“The time when inflation actually starts to recede may be pushed forward
further,” said Khalid Iqbal Siddiqui, head of research at Invest Capital
Securities in Karachi. “Even though fuel prices are currently on the way down,
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there are other utilities whose prices are likely to be raised by the
government, as per an agreement with the IMF.”
The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have also shrunk to $3.71 billion on
25 October from $14.2 billion a year ago, raising concern that Pakistan will
not be able to pay its $3 billion debt servicing costs due in the coming year.
Pakistan is also seeking funds from lenders such as the World Bank and the
Asian Development Bank and donor countries included in the “Friends of
Pakistan” group to help stabilize its economy. A meeting of the group, which
includes the US, the UK, China and Saudi Arabia, is scheduled for this month
in the United Arab Emirates.
The country’s credit rating was lowered by Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and
Moody’s Investors Service in October on concern the nation won’t be able
to pay its overseas debt because of eroding foreign reserves. The country
ended its last IMF program in 2004.
“Pakistan faces severe pressure from the external side, the fiscal side, the
monetary side, economic growth and politics,” Elena Okorotchenko, head of
Asian sovereign ratings at S&P, said in a 5 November interview in Singapore.
“There are five angles in which we analyze a country’s ratings and Pakistan is
negative on all counts.”
Overseas sales climbed 10.2% to $1.52 billion, while imports surged 2.5% to
$3.5 billion, according to the data.
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The trade gap in the first four months ended 31 October widened 33.3% to
$7.5 billion, from $5.6 billion a year ago.
Exports in the four months rose 16.6% to $6.7 billion and imports climbed
24.8% to $14.3 billion.
Pakistan experienced high economic growth over six per cent during 2004-06.
However, prices also started increasing at a rapid pace and the headline
inflation remained above eight per cent during the last two years. The
average Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was 9.3 per cent in 2004-2005
and around eight per cent in 2005-06.
Not only can high inflation erode the gains from growth, it also makes the
poor worse off and widens the gap between the rich and the poor. If much of
the inflation comes from increase in food prices, it hurts poor more since over
half of family budget of the low wage earners goes for food. Second, it
redistributes income from fixed income earners (for instance pensioners) to
owners of assets and earners of large and variable income, such as profits.
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In case of Pakistan, annual inflation was above 11 per cent in the 11 of the
past 32 years. Not surprisingly, average real per capita income growth was
2.8 per cent in years having less than 11 per cent inflation as compared to
the years of high inflation with an average of 1.5 per cent.
For Pakistan’s economy, inflation can be bad if it crosses the threshold of six
per cent, and can be extremely harmful if it crosses the double digit level.
During the first four years of the new millennium inflation remained under
five per cent and then suddenly increased to 9.3 per cent in 2004-05 and
settled to eight per cent in 2005-06. The growth in wheat prices and
exchange rate was low in some years and high in others. However, it seems
that excessive money flows towards public and private sector, along with the
import price hike in 2003-04 and 2005-06 and wheat price rise in 2003-04
and 2004-05 created inflationary pressure at an alarming level. Taxes as a
percentage of manufacturing sectors value-added did not show any rise.
During 2001-04, inflation was very low. Interestingly, support price of wheat
was not raised during 2001-03. CPI shot up again in 2004-05 when inflation
reached 9.3 per cent. It dropped slightly to eight per cent in 2005-06.
Inflation expectations alone explain 45.73 per cent of the inflation in 2005-06
and 31.1 per cent in 2004-05. This critical role of inflation expectations can
be explained by emergence of the phenomena like hoarding, assets price
hikes, and surge in house rents.
Third important factor is import prices, which explains 26.7 per cent of the
inflation in 2005-06 and 13.6 per cent in 2004-05.
In 2004-05, two other important factors for inflation were government sector
borrowing and support/procurement price of wheat, contributing 17.6 per
cent and 11.8 per cent respectively. The government taxes did not cause any
significant rise in prices in 2004-05 and 2005-05. This seems logical since
there has been no change in the tax to GDP ratio over the last few years.
June 12, 2008 (LBO) – Unprecedented borrowings from the central bank or 'money printing' to
finance subsidies have caused inflation in Pakistan to go to a historic high, the country's finance
minister has said.
Finance minister Naveed Qamar told Pakistan's parliament that large subsidies not financed in the
original budget had been given by the government in the past year expanding the fiscal deficit.
"As much as 551 billion rupees (up to May 2008) have been borrowed from the central bank,
which is unprecedented in the country's history," Qamar said Wednesday.
"It is not difficult to imagine what this printing of money means. With more money and no new
production, only prices are likely to increase, which is what is happening.
"We have to stop this process otherwise the inflation will be running much higher than what it is
at present, and as I noted it is already highest in the country's history." Inflation was now at 11
percent a year.
In many high inflation Asian countries, from Sri Lanka to Indonesia, political leaders buy
popularity by doling out subsidies instead of building infrastructure, which are then financed with
central bank credit causing very high inflation. In Sri Lanka inflation is now 'officially' at 26.2
percent, also a historic high. In the past few months the country has suppressed two inflation
indices which showed higher levels of inflation.
Much of the subsidies in Asia, especially in energy, goes to the richest sections of society, as the
rural very poor consume very little energy and have little or no access to subsidized public
transport or other utilities which are concentrated in cities. High inflation impoverishes the poor
in particular and the population in general, making it difficult for even the employed to come out
of the poverty trap.
Qamar said the government had spent 407 billion rupees on subsidies including 175 billion
rupees on petroleum, 133 rupees on electricity, 40 billion rupees on wheat, 48 billion on textiles
and fertilizers. Only 114 billion rupees were originally provided in the budget. In a country with a
soft-pegged exchange rate - unlike a country with a freely floating exchange rate - central bank
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finances or money printing drives up domestic demand, creating currency pressure. When the
central bank tries to maintain the exchange rate peg, it loses foreign reserves. If the central bank
tries to maintain interest rates and the monetary base at the same time the country rapidly
dissolves into a classic 'East Asian' style currency crisis. Vietnam is now going through such a
crisis, though its central bank is now rapidly pushing up interest rates in a bid to slow the growth
of the monetary base.
Qamar said Pakistan's foreign reserves fell from 16.5 billion dollars in October 2007 to less than
12.3 billion dollars by end April. The exchange rate has fallen by 6.4 percent from July 2007 to
April 2008.
Qamar said he hoped to cut subsidies, slash the deficit to 4.7 percent of the economy from 7.0,
cap inflation and build up foreign reserves to bring back economic stability.
It is rare for Asian politicians to admit in public that inflation is a monetary phenomenon related
to central bank activity. The usual practice is to blame 'cost-push' factors which is a symptom
rather than a cause of inflation and also 'external' factors.
Concepts such as 'inflation targeting' where parliament limits the ability of a government to create
inflation to 2 or 3 percent a year are also not widely discussed which contributes to the
perpetuation of high inflation.
Recently government has announced the inflation target of 12 per cent in the federal
budget for fiscal year 2009. The government’s current year (2007-2008) fiscal target for
inflation was 6.5 per cent. While according to government figures, the CPI based
inflation stood at 11.11 per cent during July’07 to April’08. But if we look at these
numbers, we see very alarming trends emerging. The food group is important
components of CPI based inflation, so if we keep in mind the 12 per cent target of
inflation for next fiscal year and assume that full year inflation will reach at around 12
per cent, we can analyze some important prices of essential items for the upcoming year.
Government has also announced to cut overall subsidies to Rs.295 bn from Rs.407 bn for
upcoming fiscal year and the difference will be consumed for development purposes.
Table-1 shows some major changes in subsides.
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WAPDA 113 74 (34.51)
KESC 19.5 13.8 (29.23)
Import of Wheat 40 20 (50.00)
Import of Sugar 6.5 6.3 (3.00)
Ghee Packaged in USC 1.2 1.5 25.00
Sales of Pulses USC 0.2 0.5 150.00
Sales of Atta 0.2 0.5 150.00
Oil 175 140 (20.00)
Refineries/OMCs/Others
From July, 01 the electricity charges will be increased up to 30 per cent while
government has announced to cut subsidies on oil products to Rs.140 bn from Rs.175 bn.
That will directly hurt the consumer because traditionally, whenever government imposes
taxes and cuts down subsidies to industries, all burden goes down to consumers specially
the low income group who are directly affected by the price hikes.
Also, the increase in GST to 16 per cent from 15 per cent will trigger inflation to rise by
more than the targeted rate of 12per cent.
As the government has increased subsidies on the sales of flour, ghee and sugar at utility
stores and announced some relief packages for common men in next fiscal year budget, it
is hoped that it will not take great deal of hard work on government part to remain in the
range of loosely targeted rate of 12 per cent.
The international phenomenon to set the GDP and inflation target is that the target is
always set below the GDP target while in this budget; economic managers unpredictably
have set the inflation target as 12 per cent well above the GDP target of 5.5 per cent.
Taking all these factors into consideration one thing is sure; the upcoming fiscal year will
prove tough for common man in terms of inflation.
Consumer prices jumped 17.21 percent from a year earlier after gaining 14.1
percent in March, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said in a statement in
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Islamabad today.
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said on May 4 that soaring oil and food prices are
undermining the fight against poverty. Pakistan's ability to rein in prices may
be hampered as Nawaz Sharif's party said it may quit the coalition led by the
Pakistan Peoples Party today. ``If the trend continues, it will cause serious
concerns to the new government,'' said Farhan Rizvi, an economist at JS
Global. ``Oil prices have added to already high food prices, which directly hit
the masses.''
Oil at more than $125 a barrel and declining wheat production are straining
state finances as food and fuel are subsidized in the nation of 160 million
people. Hundreds of people queue for hours outside state-run shops to buy
the subsidized wheat flour and other essential goods across the nation. Food
prices in April rose 25.5 percent from a year ago and fuel prices climbed 8.6
percent, according to the data. Historical inflation data is compiled by JS
Global Capital Ltd. in Karachi. The statistics bureau doesn't have data
preceding the year 2000.
Stocks, Currency Pakistan's key stock index rose 0.4 percent to 14,286.61
at the 2:15 p.m. local time close today, after falling 4.9 percent last week, the
biggest weekly decline in almost nine months. The rupee rose 1 percent to 69
today, after losing 6.8 percent last week, the most since 1998.
The Rome-based United Nations agency increased its estimate of the number
of so-called food insecure people in Pakistan to 77 million from 60 million.
The nation may import more than 1.5 million metric tons of wheat this year to
ease the shortage, farm minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali said on April 24.
The average price of pulses has risen about 50 percent since January, said
Fareed Qureshi, chairman of the Karachi Retail Market Association. Average
edible oil prices have climbed 16 percent since the start of the year and rice
is 26 percent more costly than it was on Jan. 1, he said.
``Pakistan's prices of wheat, flour, edible oil and pulses are at a record now,''
Qureshi said.
Oil Bill Pakistan, which imports about 85 percent of the oil it uses,
increased prices of gasoline for the first time in more than 22 months on Feb.
29 after record crude prices increased import costs for the nation's refiners.
Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority, the regulator, has since raised prices three
more times.
The trade deficit widened to $2.3 billion in April from $1.1 billion because of
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the rising oil import bill, the Bureau of Statistics said on May 10.
The central bank increased its benchmark interest rate for a second straight
meeting on Jan. 31 to tame inflation. The discount rate for commercial
lenders was raised half a percentage point to 10.5 percent for the six months
ending June 30. Inflation may exceed the government's target of 6.5 percent
this year, curbing economic growth, the central bank said on March 31.
``The inflation is paced mainly by food and oil prices,'' said Suleman Akhtar,
an economist at Foundation Securities in Karachi. ``In current conditions, a
rise in interest rates would not do much.''
Rising commodity prices are also stoking inflation in neighboring India and
China. Prices in China accelerated to near the fastest in more than 11 years,
the government said today, while inflation in India is at a 3 1/2 year high.
Pakistan's consumer prices may jump as much as 9 percent this fiscal year
ending June 30, exceeding the target of 6.5 percent, the central bank
estimates. Annual inflation may reach 12.5 percent, said JS Global's Rizvi.
Sharif, who leads a faction of the Pakistan Muslim League, the second-largest
party in parliament, may withdraw from the PPP-led government because of a
dispute over sacked judges.
Leaders of the Muslim League will meet today in Islamabad, after the former
prime minister held three days of talks in London with Asif Ali Zardari, the co-
chairman of the PPP, the main party in the coalition. ``The talks have not
moved forward because of a deadlock caused by the PPP,'' Siddique-ul-
Farooq, a spokesman for the Muslim League, said late yesterday.
"We have recommended to the concerned policy makers that for the
next quarter an expansionary monetary policy may be adopted ie
interest may be slashed so that the mechanism of decline of exchange
rate could be reversed," they added.
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"Our competitors are decreasing their interest rates, which is
decreasing their capital input cost and depreciating their currencies.
Hence, their export products are becoming more competitive in
international markets as compared to Pakistan," sources said.
A decline in inflation rate and exchange was recorded, and the balance
of trade improved substantially. Despite these figures, this
achievement was not primarily due to the monetary policy only. There
was a sharp decline in international oil prices as well as that of edible
oil, which significantly reduced the balance of trade gap and stabilised
domestic prices, sources added.
Most analysts and economists insist that alongside the SBP measures,
the government has to adopt a pro-production policy, and work harder
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on the supply side issues of all products including food and energy. But
the question is whether the government will listen?
The State Bank of Pakistan said that the underlying inflationary pressures
have started retreating from second quarter of this fiscal year, but the
process is relatively slow. However SBP in 2nd quarterly report released on
Saturday maintained that on annualized basis the main inflation was
expected to be around 19.5-20.5%. After showing a continuous acceleration
since March 2008, the CPI inflation on year-on-year basis started easing from
November 2008 and reached 21.1% in February 2009 as against a peak of
25.3% in August 2008.
The SBP report says that the recent downturn in CPI inflation was mainly due
to relative ease in food inflation that has dropped from 34.1% in August 2008
to 22.9% by February 2009. CPI non-food inflation showed a slight decline for
the third consecutive month and recorded at 19.6%in February 2009. The
downturn adjustment in domestic prices of key 39 fuels in response to a
decline in international oil prices is likely to further ease non-food inflation in
months ahead, said the report.
The SBP0 said that all price indices witnessed a downtrend in recent months.
Domestic inflation since 2008 was mainly driven by deceleration in domestic
food inflation as exhibited by the food groups of both CPI and WPI. While WPI
non-food inflation dropped in tandem with international commodity prices,
CPI non-food inflation showed stubbornness.
The difference in the trends of two inflation indices is because the pass
through of declining global fuel and commodity prices to the wholesale prices
has been quicker as compared to the retail prices. This is mainly as the prices
of most items included in the WPI basket are based on international prices,
said SBP.
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The impact of decreases in prices of manufacturing inputs such as cotton and
metals is fully reflected in the WPI non-food where as CPI non-food group
exhibits their partial effects as CPI non-food items also incorporates labor
wages which are impacted by second round effects of persistent rise in cost
of living.
About 40% CPI non-food constitutes of house rent index (HRI) which is being
estimated by using 24 month geometric mean, which makes this large
component relatively inflexible. The report said that the impact of continued
tight monetary posture also yield dividend in terms of a relative ease in core
inflation numbers during recent months. Core inflation measured by 20%
trimmed mean registered below 21% in January and February 2009for the
first time since July 2008. It indicates a relative ease in inflationary
expectations in the economy. Similarly core inflation measured by non-food
non-energy (NFNE) is hovering around 18.8% since October 2008, showing
resilience in inflationary pressures. In fact, firmness in the NFNE measure of
core inflation has been supported by a continued rising house rent index
(HRI) during the recent months.
Current account deficit had come down from $2.1 billion to $500
million, he said.
He pointed out that forex reserves were at $10 billion as exchange rate
has been stabilized at 80 a dollar compared to 85 a dollar.
Tarin said that economic growth would be at 2.5% this year and about
4% next year.
Talking about circular debt of Pepco, he said efforts were being made
to reduce this and it would be eliminated during the current fiscal year
with the help of term finance certificates and bonds for Wapda.
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Borrowing from State Bank has also been controlled and was Rs206
billion during December 2008 well below the target set for the current
fiscal year.
Inflation rate was 25% and the government was unable to raise money,
and borrowing from SBP had reached Rs 258 billion.
Banks were not lending as there were fears that government might
freeze bank accounts. Stock exchanges will literally close and trading
activity will come to standstill.
Under medium and long term plan, tax to GDP ratio would be
enhanced and productivity of agriculture and manufacturing sectors
would be increased.
Pakistan needs to stand on its own feet rather than borrowing from
international sources.
The inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) averaged at
10.3 percent during (July- April) 2007-08, as against 7.9 percent in the same
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period last year. Food price inflation is estimated at 15.0 percent compared to
10.2 percent in the same period of last year. Non-food inflation increased to
6.8 percent versus 6.2 percent in the comparable period of last year. The core
inflation (non-food, non-energy sector), increased little over last year
increasing from 6.0 percent in 2006-07 to 7.5 percent in the first ten months
of the current fiscal year. The larger contribution towards the overall CPI
inflation comes from food inflation. Based on current trends, it is expected
that the average inflation rate during 2007-08 will be over 10.5 percent.
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Should charge Capital Gain tax to Burger and Theft Families and persons
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• Reduce Unemployment
35