Aps 6 3 Notes

6.
3 Binomial Distributions
What are the conditions for a binomial setting?
Use S = Same probability of success
What is a binomial random variable? What are the possible values of a binomial random variable?
Note that binomial variables are discrete!
What are the parameters of a binomial distribution?
What is the most common mistake students make on binomial distribution questions?
On many questions involving binomial settings, students do not recognize that using the binomial
distribution is appropriate. In fact, free response questions about the binomial distribution are
often among the lowest scoring questions on the exam. Make sure to spend plenty of time
learning how to identify a binomial distribution and suggest to your students that when they
arent sure how to answer a probability question, check if it is a binomial setting.
Example: Dice, Cars, and Hoops
Determine whether the random variables below have a binomial distribution. Justify your answer.
(a) Roll a fair die 10 times and let X = the number of sixes.
Binary? Yes, success = six, failure = not a six. Independent? Yes, knowing the outcomes of
past rolls doesnt provide additional information about the outcomes of future rolls. Number?
Yes, there are 10 trials. Success? Yes, the probability of success is always 1/6. This is a
binomial setting. X is binomial with n = 10 and p = 1/6.
(b) Shoot a basketball 20 times from various distances on the court. Let Y = number of shots made.
Binary? Yes, success = make the shot, failure = miss the shot. Independent? Yes, evidence
suggests it is reasonable to assume that making a shot doesnt change the probability of making
the next shot. Trials? Yes, there are 20 trials. Success? No, the probability of success changes
because the shots are taken from various distances.
(c) Observe the next 100 cars that go by and let C = color.
Binary? No. There are more than two possible colors. Also, C is not even a random variable
since the outcomes arent numerical.
Example: Rolling Sixes

In many games involving dice, rolling a 6 is desirable. The probability of rolling a six when rolling a fair
die is 1/6. If X = the number of sixes in 4 rolls of a fair die, then X is binomial with n = 4 and p = 1/6.
What is P(X = 0)? That is, what is the probability that all 4 rolls are not sixes?
Since the probability of not getting six is 1 1/6 = 5/6, P(X = 0) = P(FFFF) =
(5/6)(5/6)(5/6)(5/6) = (5/6)4 = 0.482. Note: F represents a failure and S represents a Success.
What is P(X = 1)?
There are four different ways to roll a six once in four tries. For example, the six could occur on
the first try (SFFF), the second try (FSFF), the third try (FFSF) or the fourth try (FFFS).
P(SFFF) = (1/6)(5/6)(5/6)(5/6) = (1/6)(5/6)3
P(FSFF) = (5/6)(1/6)(5/6)(5/6) = (1/6)(5/6)3
P(FFSF) = (5/6)(5/6)(1/6)(5/6) = (1/6)(5/6)3
P(FFFS) = (5/6)(5/6)(5/6)(1/6) = (1/6)(5/6)3
Thus, the probability of rolling a six once in 4 attempts is P(X = 1) = 4(1/6)(5/6)3 = 0.386.
What about P(X = 2), P(X = 3), P(X = 4)?
Lead students to discover the formula for binomial probabilities.
In general, how can we calculate binomial probabilities? Is the formula on the formula sheet?
Example: Roulette
In Roulette, 18 of the 38 spaces on the wheel are black. Suppose you observe the next 10 spins of a
roulette wheel.
(a) What is the probability that exactly 4 of the spins land on black?
(b) What is the probability that at least 8 of the spins land on black?
Make sure to define the variable and distribution!!
Is it OK to use the binompdf and binomcdf commands on the AP exam?
How can you calculate the mean and SD of a binomial distribution? Are these on the formula sheet?
Use the number of sixes example to calculate expected value long way and reveal np
Just give them the formula for SD
Example: Roulette
Let X = the number of the next 10 spins of a roulette wheel that land on black.
(a) Calculate and interpret the mean and standard deviation of X.
Start with a simulation and dotplot to help with interpretations.
(b) How often will the number of spins that land on black be within one standard deviation of the mean?
Note: we are skipping the Normal approximation to the binomial distribution

When is it OK to use the binomial distribution when sampling without replacement? Why is this an
issue?
10% condition
6.3 The Geometric Distribution

What are the conditions for a geometric setting?
What is a geometric random variable? What are the possible values of a geometric random variable?
Ex: FFS ! x = 3
What are the parameters of a geometric distribution?
Example: Monopoly
In the board game Monopoly, one way to get out of jail is to roll doubles. Suppose that a player has to
stay in jail until he or she rolls doubles. The probability of rolling doubles is 1/6.
(a) Explain why this is a geometric setting.
(b) Define the geometric random variable and state its distribution.
(c) Find the probability that it takes exactly three rolls to get out of jail. Exactly four rolls?
(d) Find the probability that it takes more than three rolls to get out of jail. Interpret your answer in
context
In general, how can you calculate geometric probabilities? Is this formula on the formula sheet?
On average, how many rolls should it take to escape jail in Monopoly?
In general, how do you calculate the mean of a geometric distribution? Is the formula on the formula
sheet?
Show histogram.
Mention using the calcualtor

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6.

What are the parameters of a binomial distribution?

Example: Rolling Sixes

Is it OK to use the binompdf and binomcdf commands on the AP exam?

Note: we are skipping the Normal approximation to the binomial distribution

6.3 The Geometric Distribution

What are the parameters of a geometric distribution?

On average, how many rolls should it take to escape jail in Monopoly?

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