Trian Pepsico
Trian Pepsico
Trian Pepsico
July 2013
This presentation is for general informational purposes only, is not complete and does not constitute an agreement, offer, a solicitation of an offer, or
any advice or recommendation to enter into or conclude any transaction or confirmation thereof (whether on the terms shown herein or otherwise).
This presentation should not be construed as legal, tax, investment, financial or other advice. The views expressed in this presentation represent the
opinions of Trian Fund Management, L.P. (Trian) and the funds and accounts it manages (collectively Trian, and such funds and accounts, Trian
Partners), and are based on publicly available information with respect to PepsiCo, Inc. (the "Issuer or PepsiCo) and the other companies
referred to herein. Trian Partners recognizes that there may be confidential information in the possession of the companies discussed in this
presentation that could lead such companies to disagree with Trian Partners conclusions. Certain financial information and data used herein have
been derived or obtained from filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") or other regulatory authorities and from other
third party reports. Funds managed by Trian currently beneficially own and/or have an economic interest in shares of the Issuer and Mondelz
International, Inc. (Mondelez).
Trian Partners has not sought or obtained consent from any third party to use any statements or information indicated herein as having been
obtained or derived from statements made or published by third parties. Any such statements or information should not be viewed as indicating the
support of such third party for the views expressed herein. Trian Partners does not endorse third-party estimates or research which are used in this
presentation solely for illustrative purposes. No warranty is made that data or information, whether derived or obtained from filings made with the
SEC or any other regulatory agency or from any third party, are accurate. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
Neither Trian Partners nor any of its affiliates shall be responsible or have any liability for any misinformation contained in any third party, SEC or
other regulatory filing or third party report. Unless otherwise indicated, the figures presented in this presentation, including internal rates of return
(IRRs), return on invested capital (ROIC) and investment values have not been calculated using generally accepted accounting principles
(GAAP) and have not been audited by independent accountants. Such figures may vary from GAAP accounting in material respects and there can
be no assurance that the unrealized values reflected in this presentation will be realized. There is no assurance or guarantee with respect to the
prices at which any securities of the Issuer will trade, and such securities may not trade at prices that may be implied herein. The estimates,
projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the opportunities identified by Trian Partners herein are based on assumptions that Trian
Partners believes to be reasonable as of the date of this presentation, but there can be no assurance or guarantee that actual results or
performance of the Issuer will not differ, and such differences may be material. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any
security.
Trian Partners reserves the right to change any of its opinions expressed herein at any time as it deems appropriate. Trian Partners disclaims any
obligation to update the data, information or opinions contained in this presentation.
Note: Disclosure Statement and Disclaimers are continued on the next page
2
Executive
Summary
Executive Summary
Trian beneficially owns in excess of $1.3bn of PepsiCo shares, making it one of the largest
positions in our portfolio
Total Shareholder Return (TSR) at the low end of the peer group since 2006
Earnings per share (EPS) growth has compounded at approximately half the rate of the consumer staples
index since 2006
Trian believes the problem is structural as management and shareholders grapple with the
dichotomy between the companys fast growth and slow growth businesses
Conflict in allocating resources: do you starve Americas Beverage to feed growth markets or do you borrow
from growth markets to prop up Americas Beverage?
Lowest common denominator effect to valuation as PepsiCo is neither a GrowthCo nor a CashCo:
PepsiCos growth businesses are overshadowed by beverages, while beverages should be positioned as a
CashCo (more efficient capital structure, high dividend)
Ceiling on valuation: PepsiCo is destined to be viewed as #2 to Coke despite snacks comprising 2/3rds of
PepsiCos value
Both snacks and beverages are limited in their strategic options because of PepsiCos holding company
structure
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the ideas set forth herein are based on assumptions that Trian believes to be reasonable, but there can be no
assurance that actual results or performance of the Issuer will not differ, and such differences may be material. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security.
To unlock shareholder value, we have recommended to PepsiCo that it pursue one of two
strategic alternatives:
Alternative A: Merge with Mondelez, creating a global snacks powerhouse. Use acquisition as catalyst to
separate beverage ~$175 implied value per share by the end of 2015 (only way for
shareholders to capture up to $33bn in cost synergies)
Alternative B: Separate global snacks and global beverage into two standalone companies approximately
$136 $144 implied value per share by the end of 2015 depending on whether PepsiCo spins all
of beverages, Americas beverages or N. American beverages
PepsiCo has indicated that it is not inclined to pursue a Mondelez transaction though we
disagree with their rationale and hope they will reconsider their position
If PepsiCo does not pursue a Mondelez transaction, we believe it must separate snacks /
beverages. We believe a separation will create a focused snacks leader positioned to
deliver attractive growth and productivity initiatives that hit the bottom-line. We believe it
will also create a beverages leader that can combine an efficient capital structure, high
dividend and operational improvements to unlock value. Separating beverages from
snacks preserves the possibility of a strategic transaction in the future, which can create
additional value
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the ideas set forth herein are based on assumptions that Trian believes to be reasonable, but there can be no
assurance that actual results or performance of the Issuer will not differ, and such differences may be material. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security.
Global
Brand Power
Well Positioned
22 billion-dollar brands
More than 40 brands between $250m and $1bn in sales(1)
Strong category leadership; brands are typically #1 or #2 in their categories
Attractive categories (snacks and beverages) projected to grow revenue globally at 5%
or higher
Competes in categories with a small number of key players
Snacks business, if standalone, would be one of the most attractive consumer
companies in the world (leading market shares, strong margins and growth)
2012 Sales
Cheetos
Quaker Foods and Snacks
Doritos
7-Up (Outside US)
Diet Pepsi
Tropicana Beverages
Gatorade (G Series, FIT, Propel)
Mountain Dew
Lays
Pepsi
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Track Record of
Underperformance
187%
260%
214%
123%
106%
95%
145%
75%
109%
56%
90%
77%
52%
CCE
Cons.
Staples
Index
CCE
Cons.
Staples
Index
105%
95%
90%
33%
71%
30%
70%
27%
24%
22%
46%
14%
36%
8%
CCE
Cons.
Staples
Index
CCE
Cons.
Staples
Index
Source: Capital IQ through July 11, 2013. Total returns include dividends. Consumer staples index represents the Consumer Staples Select Sector Index (IXR), estimated by
using Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP).
(1) As of October 2006 when current leadership team took over. Dr Pepper Snapple was not public throughout the entire timeframe.
10
$4.13
$3.68
154%
$4.40
$4.10
$3.71
$3.38
$3.00
71%
70%
58%
37%
36%
19%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
CCE
Consumer
Staples
Index
EPS
CAGR(2) 11%(3)
9%
CocaCola
9%
Dr
Pepper
Snapple
12%(3)
Hershey
5%
PepsiCo
Kraft/
Mondelez
5%
3%
11
Despite the reset and significant brand investment, 2013 EPS is forecast to grow only 7%,
below the peer average and at the low-end of PepsiCos long-term guidance (high single
digit EPS growth)
As a result, 2013 EPS is forecast to be only 6% above the level achieved in 2010
$5.25
9.3%
High SingleDigit
$5.00
$4.75
Actual $4.10
$4.50
7.3%
$4.25
$4.00
$3.75
Nov-10 Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11 Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Peer Average
Long-Term
Guidance
PepsiCo
12
PepsiCo Beverage
Structural Challenges
PepsiCo underinvested in
beverages to support snacks
Then, snacks were pushed to overearn to support reinvestment in
beverages
Meanwhile, advertising spend as a
% of sales has declined and trails
peers
Fast-moving culture
Consumer-led innovation
Optimization of distribution is key
(franchise vs. company-owned)
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the ideas set forth herein are based on assumptions that Trian believes to be reasonable, but there can be no assurance
that actual results or performance of the Issuer will not differ, and such differences may be material. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security.
(1) Represents 2013 Trian estimates. Beverage revenue and EBIT in Europe and AMEA segments allocated per Trian estimates and Wall St. research. Corporate costs are allocated as a percentage of
revenue. EBIT is defined as earnings before interest and taxes.
(2) Q4 2012 PepsiCo earnings call.
(3) Bernstein 2/6/13.
14
If so, we believe this dynamic is unsustainable or Frito can expect accelerated market share losses ahead
US CSDs: A Declining Category
Significant investments in marketing in 2012 did not result in share
gains in the US, but only served to stabilize share
5.0%
0.0%
3%
4%
3%
4%
0%
0%
-1%
-1%
-5.0%
-3%
-6%
-10.0%
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
4%
3%
3%
4%
3%
1%
1%
3%
1%
1%
-1%
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Under-Investment In Brands
PepsiCos advertising spend as a % of net sales has declined considerably in recent years
and is well below peers, even with the significant brand reinvestment in 2012
We believe the lack of consistent advertising investment is another indication of the
challenges and conflicts in resource allocation that arise when managing businesses with
inherent structural differences
Advertising Spend as a % of Sales: 2006 2012
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
17
($ billions)
$12.0
$8.9
$8.4
$8.0
$8.5
$6.8
$0.0
2009
2010
2011
11,434
8.7%
21,441
16.2%
1,008
0.8%
33,883
25.6%
103.7%
2012
$4.13
$4.00
$3.68
$4.40
% of
Market Cap
Capital Expenditures
Restructuring Expense
$4.0
Cumulative
'09-'12
$4.10
$3.71
2.7% CAGR
$2.00
$0.00
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
18
Purchase
Price(1)
EV(3)/LTM
EBITDA(4)
Trian Commentary
We believe PepsiCo significantly overpaid for exposure to
perhaps the riskiest emerging market
Lebedyansky JSC,
Juice Business
~$5.0bn
17.5x
~$11.6bn
8.3x
~$4.3bn
8.6x
800-900m
reais
>$450m
(Rumor)
NA
$2.0bn(2)
Midteens(5)
Source: Company SEC Filings, Press Releases and Bloomberg PepsiCo Buys Mabel for as Much as 900 Million Reais, Estado Says.
(1) Market cap they acquired (excludes percentage already owned) plus the debt they consolidated
(2) Implied total enterprise value of Lebedyansky Juice business from PepsiCos 3/20/2008 press release.
(3) Enterprise Value
(4) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
(5) Based on Trian estimates and PepsiCo press release (3/20/08).
19
Called for faster organic growth through integration of health strategies across segments (e.g.,
Power of One) as well as acquisitions of nutrition-related companies
While Trian believes PepsiCo is well served to prudently adapt its product-line
to changing health trends, we believe the emphasis placed on building out
NutritionCo was a distraction from the core portfolio
Led to several high-priced acquisitions (e.g., Wimm-Bill-Dann), a common risk when an M&A
department is tasked with achieving aggressive growth targets in a specific area
Distractions may have been a contributor to loss of market share in key snacks and beverages
categories
20
We believe PepsiCo may have mortgaged its long-term future in key growth
markets
Gave up control of route to market in two of the most important countries outside the U.S.
Will rely on third parties to build PepsiCos presence
Trian is uncertain a 100% focused beverage company would have entered into
these transactions
Source: PepsiCo SEC filings and Wall Street research including Bank of America 4/23/12.
21
2008
$4.10
2012
$4.40
2011
0.0% EPS
CAGR
$4.40
2013E
(Consensus)
22
Why arent lower margin bottling assets being offset by higher margin
businesses like beverage concentrates, Quaker NA and Frito-Lay NA?
2012 EBIT Before Advertising: % of Net Sales
30%
26%
Coca-Cola
Dr Pepper
Snapple(2)
26%
Hershey
18%
17%
PepsiCo
Mondelez
23
Even Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) has a higher margin despite lack of concentrate
revenue (albeit European bottling is more profitable than U.S. bottling)
PepsiCo Estimated 2012 Beverages Margin vs Beverages Peers
23%
Peer Average: 18%
18%
13%
Coca-Cola
Dr Pepper
Snapple
CCE
12%
24
Trians Path to
Value Creation
Fundamentally different businesses with different drivers to shareholder value: growth vs. cash return
Ceiling on valuation
Structural problems require structural solutions: we believe superior shareholder value can be attained at PepsiCo
by separating into standalone snacks and beverages companies
Trian has recommended to PepsiCo that it pursue one of two strategic alternatives, each of which entails a
separation of beverages:
Alternative A: Merge with Mondelez, use acquisition as a catalyst to separate beverages. A bold, transformative
transaction that creates the global snacks leader with potential for up to $6 billion in cost and revenue synergies
Alternative B: Separation of snacks and beverages into two new standalone companies. Trian favors a spin of all of
beverages (as opposed to a spin of North America beverages or Americas beverages only):
o Creates two pure play companies
26
27
45.0x
PepsiCo
Coca-Cola
Hershey
40.0x
35.0x
30.0x
25.0x
Key Takeaways:
Companies selected based on scale in branded beverage (CocaCola / PepsiCo) and snacks / confectionary (Hershey)
Key takeaways include:
1. Beverage valuations have been declining in absolute terms
and relative to snacks since the early 2000s (when the lines
crossed and snacks began trading at a premium)
2. PepsiCo has almost exclusively traded at a valuation
discount to Coca-Cola, despite more than half the value of
PepsiCo coming from snacks
3. Hershey, 100% focused on snacks and confectionary,
trades at one of the best multiples in consumer staples.
And rightly so, given it participates in a fast growth
category, has strong margins and has leading brands
4. While not perfect, Hershey is perhaps the most comparable
company for PepsiCo Snacks or a combined PepsiCo /
Mondelez given its snacks / confectionary focus. That said,
Hershey has significantly less international / emerging
markets exposure
20.0x
15.0x
28
Highly focused food companies trade at premium multiples vs. peers with diverse portfolios
Reasons likely include: (i) easier to manage; (ii) respond faster to market challenges / opportunities; and
(iii) more attractive M&A partners
2013 P/E
Large Cap Average: 24.0x
??
POST
(Post)
WWAV
(WhiteWave
Foods)
LNCE
(Snyder's
Lance)
PepsiCo
Snacks
30%
0%(4)
16%
0%(5)
51%
9%
8%
-4%
14%
4%
6%+(6)
23.3%
18.6%
16.1%
7.5%
6.7%
18.0%(7)
22.8x
22.9x
25.1x
HSY
(Hershey)
MKC
(McCormick)
MJN
(Mead
Johnson)
WWY(1)
(Wrigley)
Intl Sales %
(ex NA)
11%
36%(2)
70%+(3)
3-Yr Average
Organic
Growth
7%
5%
CY2012 EBIT
Margin
18.5%
14.4%
40.1x
24.6x
25.2x
Indra Nooyi: I'd say it if it were a stand-alone company, Frito-Lay North America might well be the best
consumer products company Q2 2011 Earnings Call, 7/21/2011
29
Recent consumer spin-offs have generated significant total returns relative to the S&P 500. Many of these
companies were struggling prior to the separations
Kraft vs. S&P 500
51%
22%
39%
61%
9%
Kraft
8/3/11-7/11/13
S&P
Ralcorp
7/13/11-11/27/12
Sara Lee
S&P
S&P
9/24/09-3/28/13
45%
-24%
Cadbury
S&P
Fortune
12/7/10-7/11/13
S&P
3/12/2007-9/7/2009
Spin-Offs (tracked through the Bloomberg US Spin-Off Index) have generated a 64% price return vs. 20% for
the S&P 500 over the last five years (+26% vs. +17%, year-to-date) Goldman Sachs, SOTP Handbook, 5/23/2013
Source: Capital IQ and Trian calculations.
Note: End date is not 7/11/13 when either the spin or remaining company has agreed to be acquired (e.g. Cadbury, D.E. Master (Sara Lee) and Ralcorp), but instead the date that the agreement
to be acquired or talks were announced.
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the ideas set forth herein are based on assumptions that Trian believes to be reasonable, but there can be no
assurance that actual results or performance will not differ, and such differences may be material. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security. The above
examples are merely illustrative. Market conditions at the time of the events reflected above may differ materially from current and future market conditions. The performance of these examples
should therefore not be construed as an indication of PepsiCos performance. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
(1) D.E. Master Blenders was known to be in talks with Benckiser as of 3/28/13. 2 weeks later the acquisition was announced.
30
s ("E")
1,007
1,282
903
1,139
808
1,007
903
Cadbury
Confectionary
Margin
638
633Progression:
592
558
527
497
633 Benefits Of Focus On Operations
592Powerful
2008E/A
NA
2009E/A
Underlying Operating
Profit
(mm)
NA
NA
NA
2010E
2010E
2011E
2012E ("E")
Pre-Trian Wall St.
Research Estimates
2011E
2012E
2013E
Post-Trian Actuals ("A") / Jan. 2010
KFTGuidance
acquisition ("E")
closes
1,282
in early 2010
497
2013E
903
808
638
527
1,007
633
592
558
1,139
NA
2007A
2008E/A
2009E/A
9.8%
10.3%
9.8%
11.8%
10.4%
5,975
13.5%
2010E
2011E
NA
2012E
2013E
6,334
14.3%
5,828
10.9%
6,714
15.0%
NA
NA
NA
NA
7,116
7,543
16.0%
17.0%
Following the spin-off of beverages and creation of a pure-play confectionary business in 2007, Cadbury increased
its 2010 operating profit margin to a level 400 bps above what Wall Street analysts had forecast prior to the separation.
Source: Cadbury reported results and guidance based on the companys detailed press releases for the fiscal years ended December 2007, 2008 and 2009 and from its January 2010 investor
presentation. The Wall Street research report was from 3/14/2007, prior to Trians involvement and the Companys Vision Into Action Plan announced in June 2007.
Note: The above example is merely illustrative. Market conditions at the time of the events reflected above may differ materially from current and future market conditions. The performance of this
example should therefore not be construed as an indication of PepsiCos performance. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
31
In 1997, PepsiCo spun-off its quick service restaurant (QSR) business (Yum) to focus exclusively on snacks /
beverages
At the time, Yum was clearly disadvantaged vs. McDonalds in terms of global brands and financial firepower
But 15 years later, Yum has significantly outperformed McDonalds across virtually every key metric due to
savvy management and aggressive capital deployment, particularly in emerging markets
Would Yum have been as successful (and would it have built a Chinese business worth >$20bn) had it been
part of PepsiCo these past 15 years? We think not
They may be right but PepsiCo Beverages has a collection of phenomenal brands with significant untapped
potential. Five years from now (or fifteen) will PepsiCo Beverages be better off still playing second fiddle to
Frito-Lay or having operated as a standalone company under a 100% dedicated management team?
Yum vs. McDonalds (1997 Spin-Off Through Today)
Enterprise Value
1997
Today
1997
EPS
Today
International Sales
% of Total Sales
1997
Today
Restaurant Profit/
Avg. Company Unit
1997
Today
# of China
Restaurants
Today
$5,047 $35,797
+609%
$0.34
$3.25
+871%
25%
+50%
75%
$85
+212%
$264
5,726
$39,351 $111,517
+183%
$1.16
$5.36
+360%
60%
+8%
68%
$318
+63%
$518
1,700
Prior to the spin-off, this same N. American grocery portfolio was viewed as the weaker
portion of Krafts portfolio (meats, cheese, coffee, packaged meals, etc.) similar to how
PepsiCo Beverage is viewed today
Nevertheless, Kraft Foods Groups premium valuation is supported by a safe U.S.-centric
sales mix, an efficient capital structure (~3x Debt/EBITDA), a high dividend payout ratio
(70%) and an attractive dividend yield (3.5%)
Based on an aggressive mindset to reduce unnecessary costs, there is an expectation
management will deliver +300 bps of margin improvement(2) in the coming years as the
company emerges from its legacy culture
We believe Kraft also has the ability to make future accretive acquisitions that, prior to the
spin-off from the parent company, were too small to move the needle and/or focused in
areas that were not strategic priorities
We believe PepsiCo Beverages (PepsiCos CashCo) has a stronger brand portfolio than
Kraft Foods Group in addition to strong, stable free cash flow. If spun-off as a separate
company with a dedicated management team and an intelligent capital allocation strategy,
we believe PepsiCo Beverages would achieve a very attractive valuation multiple
Note: The above example is merely illustrative. Market conditions at the time of the events reflected above may differ materially from current and future market conditions. The performance of
this example should therefore not be construed as an indication of PepsiCos performance. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
(1) Source: Capital IQ. Peer group includes Campbell, Danone, General Mills, Kellogg, Mondelez, Nestle, Smucker and Unilever.
(2) (2012-2015) consensus EBIT margins from Capital IQ
33
We believe PepsiCo Beverages has many similar traits and can be modeled after Kraft
22.8x
19.9x
HSY
MKC
KRAFT
19.4x
MDLZ
19.3x
KO
19.2x
PEP
18.7x
SJM
18.4x
GIS
17.3x
17.1x
16.3x
15.4x
CPB
CAG
DPS
Though snacks are ~51% of revenue and ~2/3rds of value, PepsiCo has forever been viewed by investors
through a beverage lens comparing it to Coke, a pure play beverage business
Majority of analysts covering PepsiCo follow beverage, not food
Analysts are fixated on challenges in North American CSDs, despite mid-single digit (MSD)+ organic growth potential across other
businesses (vs. typical food company growth of 2-3%)
Competitive pressure in beverage, in our view, has forced PepsiCo to make questionable capital allocation and
strategic decisions:
Multi-decade arms-war between Coke and Pepsi, driving promotional activity but not volume increases
Recently invested incremental ~$16bn in low margin / capital intensive bottlers to squeeze synergies and help hit profit targets
Purchased Wimm-Bill-Dann (dairy & juice, 100% exposed to single high-risk market) for 17.5x enterprise value (EV) / LTM EBITDA
Pushed snacks margins to the point of over-earning to offset beverage weakness
Coke will likely continue growing faster than PepsiCo in beverages because of an advantaged global position
We believe this places a ceiling on valuation; PepsiCo destined to continue trading at parity / discount to Coke despite snacks value
Time is of the essence: Coke has upped its game in recent years, leveraging its strategic advantages to make life difficult for Pepsi
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the ideas set forth herein are based on assumptions that Trian believes to be reasonable, but
there can be no assurance that actual results or performance of the Issuer will not differ, and such differences may be material. This presentation does not recommend the
purchase or sale of any security.
35
B-1:
Separate All
of Beverages
B-2:
Separate
Americas
Beverages
B-3:
Separate
N. American
Beverages
(1)
(2)
2015E Implied
Value Per
Existing Share(1)
Capital
Return
Future
Strategic
Flexibility at
New Companies
Synergies
Other
Cost
Saving
DisSynergy
Significant
flexibility
Significant
flexibility for both
businesses
Limited flexibility
None
(beverage brands
split; SnacksCo still
has non-Americas
beverage)
2 companies with
poison pills (2)
PepsiCo
Somewhat
productivity
mitigates disopportunity (must
synergies by
hit bottom-line)
preserving snacks /
beverages outside
Americas
Separates brands
Limited flexibility
(beverage brands
split; SnacksCo
still has global
beverage)
2 companies with
poison pills (2)
PepsiCo
Somewhat
productivity
mitigates disopportunity (must
synergies by
hit bottom-line)
preserving snacks /
beverage outside
N. America
Separates brands
Potential to
separate MDLZ
Coffee / Grocery
down the road
Brings up to $3bn
of cost savings
Up to $33bn
capitalized value)
None
None
PepsiCo
Dis-synergies
productivity
must be offset by
opportunity (must
management cost
hit bottom-line)
actions
Preserves
synergy of global
beverage platform
36
A.
38
Precedent Large-Cap
Consumer Acquisitions: Announced
Synergies as % of Target Sales
Major
Food
& Home
Personal
(HPC)($m)
Major
Food
& HPC
M&A And
Deals:
ExpectedCare
Synergies
M&A Deals: Expected Synergies ($m)
Acquirer
Acquired
Acq.
PY
Est.
% of
Date
Sales
Savings
Sales
Unilever
Bestfoods
2000
8,400
800
9.5%
Kraft
Nabisco
2000
8,300
600
7.2%
PepsiCo
Quaker
2001
5,000
400
8.0%
Nestle
Ralston
2001
2,900
270
9.3%
Kellogg
Keebler
2001
2,700
175
6.5%
2001
4,200
350
8.3%
P&G
Clairol
2001
1,600
200
12.5%
Cadbury
Adams
2003
1,900
125
6.6%
P&G
Wella
2003
4,200
360
8.6%
P&G
Gillette
2005
10,500
1,100
10.5%
RB
BHI
2006
950
140
14.7%
Nestle
Gerber
2007
1,900
95
5.0%
Kraft
Danone Biscuits
2007
2,800
200
7.1%
Danone
Numico
2007
3,570
82
2.3%
InBev
Anheuser
2008
16,500
1,500
9.1%
Kraft
Cadbury
2009
8,800
625
7.1%
Average
8.3%
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the ideas set forth herein are based on assumptions that Trian believes to be reasonable, but there can be no assurance
that actual results or performance will not differ, and such differences may be material. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security. The above examples are merely
illustrative. Market conditions at the time of the events reflected above may differ materially from current and future market conditions. The performance of these examples should therefore not be
construed as an indication of PepsiCos performance. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
39
~400 bps of improvement in MDLZ margins, bringing them in-line with diversified food peers (but
well below snacks peers), would yield ~$1.4bn in incremental EBITDA (potentially worth ~$16bn
to shareholders)
18.5%
18.0%
17.5%
16.8%
16.2%
15.2%
14.6%
14.4%
14.4%
14.2%
13.8%
12.2%
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the ideas set forth herein are based on assumptions that Trian believes to be reasonable, but there can be no assurance that
actual results or performance will not differ, and such differences may be material. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security. The above examples are merely illustrative.
Market conditions at the time of the events reflected above may differ materially from current and future market conditions. The performance of these examples should therefore not be construed as an
indication of PepsiCos performance. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
(1) Adjusted for one-time items such as restructuring and impairment costs
(2) Represents 2012 numbers. EBIT estimate for PepsiCo per companys SEC filings and Trian estimates..
(3) Represent LTM EBIT as of last publicly reported filings, 6/30/08
(4) Represents the average of PepsiCo (Food), Wrigley, and Hershey
40
We assume PEP merges with MDLZ at $35 per share, representing a ~16% premium, in all-stock deal where 20% of the
combined market capitalizations are returned to shareholders through a moderate increase in leverage
Ensures all shareholders maintain significant ownership and upside potential
Resulting financial impact to PepsiCo equivalent to if the deal were structured with 67% cash and 33% stock
Implied EV / Closing LTM EBITDA of 14.4x (13.3x NTM(1)) represents discount to historical food average of ~16x
Equates to ~8.6x EV / 13e EBITDA pro forma for $3.7bn cost synergies and Mondelez margin improvement
Also a low multiple of sales: 2.2x represents a 31% discount to precedent transactions
Note Krafts acquisition of Cadbury was well-timed in Sept. 2009 when the S&P had fallen to ~1,000 (trough valuations). Despite the S&P
500 recovering ~65% over the past four years, Mondelez would still be purchased for a multiple in-line with Cadburys
MDLZ valuation compelling given 40% of revenue from emerging markets (double-digit revenue growth since 09)
Mondelez has a portfolio of proven brands that travel across continents/cultures and have stood the test of time
Standalone consumer products companies with scale brands in emerging markets trade for large multiples (Hindustan Unilever: 27x EV/Fwd
EBITDA; Unilever Indonesia: 30x; Mead Johnson 15x)
PepsiCo paid 17.5x EV / LTM EBITDA for Wimm-Bill-Dann, a dairy and juice company, despite limited synergies (~4% of sales), a portfolio
of regional (rather than global) brands and outsized exposure to a single high-risk market
Acquired
Bestfoods
Year
2000
Kraft
Nabisco
2000
$18.9
14.0x
2.3x
PepsiCo
Quaker Oats
2001
$14.0
15.9x
2.7x
Nestle
Ralston Purina
2001
$11.2
13.5x
3.9x
Cadbury
Adams
2003
$4.2
14.3x
2.2x
Nestle
Gerber
2007
$5.5
15.7x
2.8x
Danone
Numico
2007
$18.4
23.1x
5.1x
Mars
Wrigley
2008
$23.0
19.3x
4.3x
Kraft
Cadbury
2009
$21.1
13.0x
2.2x
Average
$15.6
15.9x
3.2x
14.4x
2.2x
Price ($bn)
$24.2
EV / LTM
EBITDA
14.3x
Acquiror
Unilever
$78.0
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the ideas set forth herein are based on assumptions that Trian believes to be reasonable, but there can be no
assurance that actual results or performance will not differ, and such differences may be material. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security. The above examples
are merely illustrative. Market conditions at the time of the events reflected above may differ materially from current and future market conditions. The performance of these examples should therefore
not be construed as an indication of PepsiCos performance. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
(1) Defined as next twelve months
41
Strong Accretion: Assuming ~$3+ billion in 2016 synergies, a 25% deal premium, a relatively equal split of debt and equity
financing, and favorable (but we believe realistic) interest rates on new/refinanced debt, we determine that a PEP acquisition of
MDLZ could be accretive by ~15%-20% in the first full year. Note, of course, that this assumes no reinvestment of realized synergies,
which is unlikely.
Alexia Howard, Ali Dibadj, Steve Powers Bernstein 4.22.13
In recent years, both PEP and MDLZ have been focused on expanding their Snacks' footprint into Emerging Markets.
However, in both cases, those Emerging Market businesses remain below-scale (and, in PEP's case at least, meaningfully
margin-dilutive). As a result, to the extent that a combination could lead to accelerated growth and/or enhanced scale, it could
be highly beneficial to both entities. Ali Dibadj, Steve Powers, Alexia Howard, Bernstein 5.17.13
Significant Realizable Cost Synergies:
The cost synergy opportunity is real. In our work published a few weeks ago, we embedded 9% of Mondelez revenues as
synergies (or $3.4B). While there is limited segment/country overlap, the combined entity does have some meaningful overlaps
in the largest countries. The transaction would create 5 markets with sales in excess of $5B at retail (vs MDLZ having 3 and
Frito having 1 of that size today), 6 markets with retails sales between $2-6B, 7 markets with retail sales between $1-2B and 12
markets with sales between $500M-$1B. Bill Pecoriello, Consumer Edge 3.17.13
A Merger Could Yield Significant Cost Savings: MDLZs overall margins are well below those of its scaled global Food peers
(such as PepsiCo, Nestle, and Unilever), particularly in Europe and North America leaving significant runway for cost
savings, in our view. To us, the potential synergies realized through a PEP/MDLZ tie-up could be substantial, not only as the
combined company looks to address these inefficiencies but also due to the likely significant overlap in each companys
infrastructure.
Andrew Lazar, Barclays 3.22.13
42
Mondelezs stock price increased 7% over the same one week period
PepsiCo Share Price: 3/21 3/28
$80.00
$79.11
$29.73
$30.00
$77.83
$78.00
$29.88 $30.29
$78.92
$78.64
$79.00
$30.62
$31.00
$78.29
$30.35
$29.00
$77.00
$28.00
$76.00
$28.56
$76.15
$75.00
$27.00
43
Note:
(1)
(2)
Overlap With
MDLZ (1)
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
# Pepsi Holder:
21. Goldman Sachs
22. Geode
23. UBS
24. Invesco
25. Fisher Investments
26. Eagle Capital
27. Deutsche Bank
28. Brown Brothers Harriman
29. Legal & General
30. Credit Suisse
31. General Electric
32. State Farm Mutual
33. American Century
34. NY Common
35. Ameriprise
36. PNC Financial Services
37. Sumitomo
38. Charles Schwab
39. Fayez Sarofim
40. Sun Life Financial
Overlap With
MDLZ (1)
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
44
Unfortunately social issues too often get in the way of shareholders best interests (only one
CEO, one Board, one corporate headquarters survive)
Lastly, a note specific to Mondelez Of all companies, Mondelez has no moral right to just
say no to a value-creating offer from PepsiCo. After all, Kraft itself made a successful
unsolicited (and culturally unpopular) offer for Cadbury in 2009
Shares in synergies
Shares in synergies
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the ideas set forth herein are based on assumptions that Trian believes to be reasonable, but there can be no
assurance that actual results or performance will not differ, and such differences may be material. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security.
45
$2.5
$2.25
$2.25
$16
$12.1
$2.0
$12
$12.1
$13.0
$13.9
$10.8
60%
6%
52%
5%
$1.50
$1.5
44%
$8
$1.0
$1.36
$0.5
$0.25
$0.0
July-08
Original
Plan
Synergies Achieved
Dec-08
35.8%
35.5%
29.9%
38.2%
$4
28%
Synergies Expected
20%
2007
Dec-08
Dec-09
Combined Pro Forma
Pre-Acq
LTM EBITDA
Dec-09
Adjusted
Margin
Dec-10
2.7%
3%
2%
$0
Dec-09
4%
36%
30.8%
4.8%
1.9%
1%
1.9%
1.6%
0.4%
0%
2008 InBev
Global Beer Industry
2009 AB InBev
2010 AB InBev
After Several
Divestitures
Source: Bloomberg, company filings, annual reports, and investor presentations. Synergy numbers above do not reflect revenue synergies.
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the ideas set forth herein are based on assumptions that Trian believes to be reasonable, but there can be no
assurance that actual results or performance will not differ, and such differences may be material. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security.
Note: The above example is merely illustrative. Market conditions at the time of the events reflected above may differ materially from current and future market conditions. The performance of this
example should therefore not be construed as an indication of PepsiCos performance. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
(1) Updated target to $2.25bn in March 2009 at FY earnings call, and announced it had achieved $250m in 2008. Updated synergy level in 2009 Annual Report
(2) For 2007, uses InBevs estimated figures from their 2008 Analyst Meeting (October 2008), and converts using the stated exchange rate of 1.3676 $/
46
Gross
Leverage
Precedent Transactions:
Ability to Implement Highly Efficient Capital Structures
Company
Acquiror
LTM
Leverage
Acquiror
Credit
Rating
Post-Acq
LTM
Leverage
Post-Acq
Credit
Rating
2.5x
Baa2/
BBB+
6.7x/
10.4(1)
B2/BB-
1.9x
Baa2/
BBB
4.0x
Baa2/
BBB-
1.8x(1)
NA
(AB was
A2, 1.9x
EBITDA)
5.2x
Baa2
The June 2013 acquisition of Heinz by Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital demonstrates
that, more than ever, smart investors are leveraging the strong / stable free cash flow generated by
leading food companies to implement efficient capital structures at record low interest rates.
Source: Trian model and estimates, company SEC filings and press releases
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the ideas set forth herein are based on assumptions that Trian believes to be reasonable, but there
can be no assurance that actual results or performance will not differ, and such differences may be material. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any
security. The above examples are merely illustrative. Market conditions at the time of the events reflected above may differ materially from current and future market conditions.
The performance of these examples should therefore not be construed as an indication of PepsiCos performance. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
(1) According to Moodys note issued 6/19/2013; 6.7x excludes preferred stock and 10.4x incorporating preferred stock
(2) Uses Net Debt balance from Q2 2008 and Cash from FY2007 to approximate debt before merger.
47
PepsiCo would merge with Mondelez in an all-stock transaction valued at $35.00 per
Mondelez share, representing a 16% premium
-
4.5x Debt / Pro Forma EBITDA (Pro forma company repurchases 20% of combined shares
outstanding; implied ownership of 68% PEP / 32% MDLZ)
$3.7bn of combined cost synergies and Mondelez margin improvements achieved over 3
years (8.7% of year 3 revenue); $4.5bn cash restructuring costs
$3bn revenue synergies (3.5% of total snacks sales) achieved over 3 years; 25% flow through
Transaction
Overview
Operating
Assumptions
(12-16e)
Returns
Debt maintained at 4.0x EBITDA; 70% dividend payout (3.75% dividend yield)
Valuation
-
BeveragesCo trades to a 3.75% dividend yield (18.5x forward EPS) (discount to Kraft Foods)
~35% total IRR over first 2.5 years through value creation at SnacksCo and BeveragesCo
Combined companies generate 32% EPS accretion by 2016 vs. PepsiCo standalone
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the opportunities identified by Trian Partners herein are based on assumptions that Trian Partners believes to be
reasonable as of the date of this presentation, but there can be no assurance or guarantee that actual results or performance will not differ, and such differences may be material. Unless otherwise
indicated, the figures set forth in this presentation, including internal rates of return (IRR), have not been calculated using generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and have not been
audited by independent accountants. Such figures may vary from GAAP accounting in material respects and there can be no assurance that the unrealized values reflected in this presentation will
be realized. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security.
48
$35.0
1,783
$62,404
18,180
(2,759)
144
$77,970
Valuation
2013 LTM EBITDA // EV/EBITDA
2014 EBITDA // EV/EBITDA
2013 EPS // Price/EPS
2014 EPS // Price/EPS
% - Premium
Current share price / %-Premium
$5,398
$5,882
14.4x
13.3x
$1.53
1.65
22.8x
21.2x
$30.2
16.0%
Sources of funds:
Cash on balance sheet
New debt
Equity
Total sources of funds:
Uses of funds:
Refinancing of debt
Fees and expenses
Minimum cash
Share repurchase / dividend(2)
Consideration to common
Total uses of funds
$
$10,771
84,833
62,404
$158,008
7%
54%
39%
100%
$47,580
1,200
5,000
30%
1%
3%
41,823
62,404
$158,008
26%
39%
100%
$
Debt consideration
Equity consideration
Total consideration
$ Equity consideration per Share
PepsiCo share price
Exchange ratio
Share repurchase
PepsiCo share price at a 10.0% premium
Total shares repurchased
% - Total pro forma shares
$0
62,404
$62,404
$/SHO
$0.0
35.0
$35.0
$35.0
$84.6
0.41x
$41,823
$93.0
449.7
19.8%
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the opportunities identified by Trian Partners herein are based on assumptions that Trian Partners
believes to be reasonable as of the date of this presentation, but there can be no assurance or guarantee that actual results or performance will not differ, and such
differences may be material. Unless otherwise indicated, the figures set forth in this presentation have not been calculated using generally accepted accounting principles
(GAAP) and have not been audited by independent accountants. Such figures may vary from GAAP accounting in material respects and there can be no assurance that the
unrealized values reflected in this presentation will be realized. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security.
(1)
Reflects projected closing balance sheet as of 12/31/13.
(2)
PepsiCo can use incremental debt proceeds to fund a one-time share repurchase or special dividend (shareholders would participate based on relative % ownership). We
model a share repurchase for simplicity and to make pro forma EPS comparable to existing EPS. A dividend may be the better alternative depending on tax implications
and the required premium to repurchase shares.
49
50
"BeveragesCo"
2012a
Income Statement
Revenue
% - Growth
EBIT
% - Growth
% - Margin
$67,939
$70,639
4.0%
$75,456
6.8%
$80,671
6.9%
$86,127
6.8%
6.1%
$10,191
$10,640
4.4%
15.1%
$12,432
16.8%
16.5%
$14,697
18.2%
18.2%
$17,035
15.9%
19.8%
13.7%
$6,222
1,824
$3.41
$7,530
1,820
$4.14
21.3%
$9,090
1,811
$5.02
21.3%
15.0%
Net income
Fully diluted shares
Earnings per share
% - Growth
Memo: Synergies/dis-synergies net of amortization
Credit statistics
Debt
EBITDA
Debt / EBITDA
Dividend
Dividend Per Share
% of FCF
% of EPS
$911
$2,161
$3,411
2013 PF(1)
$62,659 $62,659 $61,112 $59,055 $56,438
$13,924 $12,924 $15,131 $17,484 $19,921
4.50x
4.85x
4.04x
3.38x
2.83x
$1.88
50%
45%
$2.30
50%
46%
478 bps
$10,817 % CAGR
1,802 13-16
$6.00
20.7%
19.6%
$2.77
50%
46%
2012a
Income Statement
Revenue
% - Growth
EBIT
% - Growth
% - Margin
$32,324
$32,800
1.5%
$33,891
3.3%
$35,025
3.3%
$36,202
3.4%
2.9%
$3,726
$3,889
4.4%
11.9%
$3,955
1.7%
11.7%
$4,432
12.1%
12.7%
$4,921
11.0%
13.6%
7.2%
$2,076
1,824
$1.14
$2,124
1,820
$1.17
2.6%
$2,445
1,773
$1.38
18.2%
$2,735 % CAGR
1,686 13-16
$1.62
12.6%
17.6%
($400)
($400)
($400)
11.5%
Net income
Fully diluted shares
Earnings per share
% - Growth
Memo: Synergies/dis-synergies net of amortization
Credit statistics
Debt
EBITDA
Debt / EBITDA
% CAGR
12 - 16
207 bps
2013 PF(1)
$22,174 $22,174 $21,994 $23,731 $25,831
$4,928
$5,328
$5,423
$5,933
$6,458
4.50x
4.16x
4.06x
4.00x
4.00x
Dividend
Dividend Per Share
% of FCF
% of EPS
$0.81
70%
70%
$0.96
70%
69%
$1.12
70%
69%
35.0%
$168.0
$175.1
43.2%
Blended IRR
39.1%
(1) Pro forma for $1bn out-of-box cost synergies at Snacks Co and $400mm out-of-box dis-synergies at Beverages Co ($800m, 50% offset)
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the opportunities identified by Trian Partners herein are based on assumptions that Trian
Partners believes to be reasonable as of the date of this presentation, but there can be no assurance or guarantee that actual results or performance will not differ, and
such differences may be material. Unless otherwise indicated, the figures set forth in this presentation, including internal rates of return (IRR), have not been calculated
using generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and have not been audited by independent accountants. Such figures may vary from GAAP accounting in material
respects and there can be no assurance that the unrealized values reflected in this presentation will be realized. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or
sale of any security.
Note: EBIT margin declines from 2013 to 2014 in Beverages due to dis-synergies from the separation.
51
$4.36
$4.78
9.4%
$5.26
10.1%
$5.77
9.8%
$2.24
$2.55
$2.80
$3.07
$3.41
1.14
$4.55
$4.14
1.17
$5.31
$5.02
1.38
$6.40
$6.00
1.62
$7.62
4%
11%
22%
32%
$1.88
0.81
$2.69
6%
$2.30
0.96
$3.26
16%
$2.77
1.12
$3.90
27%
% Accretion / (dilution)
SnacksCo dividend per share
BeveragesCo dividend per share
Total dividend per share
% Increase in dividend
52
Combined company
is too big to grow
Trian Perspective:
Its not a zero-sum game; both sweet and salty snacks are growing
Recently sweet snacks (e.g., Hershey) have been growing faster than salty snacks in developed markets
like the U.S.
In emerging markets, PepsiCos goal should be to build scale and position itself for maximum long-term
growth, not to take occasions from sweet snacks
Additional scale from Mondelez combination ($35bn of revenue) is largely offset by separating
beverages ($33bn of revenue)
Nestle has a market capitalization of almost $200bn and delivered a superior total shareholder return vs.
PepsiCo over the past decade
Biscuit margins are an opportunity at Mondelez
Biscuits is
inherently a low
margin business
Limited synergies
between salty /
sweet snacks
EBIT margin within Kelloggs U.S. Snacks business has averaged 16% over the past three years,
significantly higher than Mondelezs N. American (Nabisco) operating margin
Danones biscuit business, bought by Mondelez in 2007, had a solid 16% EBIT margin when purchased
Even if biscuits (32% of Mondelez sales) are slightly less profitable than other snacks businesses,
Mondelezs consolidated EBIT margin of only 12% has meaningful upside potential
Of the 16 previously referenced large-cap consumer acquisitions, the average and median of announced
synergies was +8% of target sales
For 12 of those acquisitions, synergies were in excess of 7% of target sales
We do not understand how PepsiCo claims significant cost synergies between beverages and salty snacks
but limited cost synergies between salty snacks and sweet snacks
Incremental debt raised in proposed transactions should not be difficult as both companies would remain
investment grade; large deals like InBev / Anheuser-Busch were financed in worse credit markets
In the current depressed interest rate environment, we believe there would be healthy demand from fixed
income investors to own a combined PepsiCo / Mondelez snacks business and a high cash flow global
beverages business
53
54
B.
Initial SnacksCo / BeveragesCo P&L based on PepsiCo guidance, Wall St. research
Assumes Europe / AMEA snacks and beverages have same margin as consolidated
segments; uses PepsiCo disclosure on food/beverage breakdown to estimate revenue
Valuation
- SnacksCo trades to 23x forward earnings (modest discount to Hershey)
Transaction
Overview
Operating
Assumptions
(12-16e)
Returns
BeveragesCo trades to a 3.75% dividend yield (18.5x forward EPS) (discount to Kraft Foods)
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the opportunities identified by Trian Partners herein are based on assumptions that Trian
Partners believes to be reasonable as of the date of this presentation, but there can be no assurance or guarantee that actual results or performance will not differ, and
such differences may be material. Unless otherwise indicated, the figures set forth in this presentation, including internal rates of return (IRR), have not been calculated
using generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and have not been audited by independent accountants. Such figures may vary from GAAP accounting in material
respects and there can be no assurance that the unrealized values reflected in this presentation will be realized.
This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security.
56
Snacks Co
Beverages Co
PF
Combined
$34,781
$32,800
$67,581
$7,526
0
$7,526
21.6%
$5,328
(400)
$4,928
15.0%
$12,854
(400)
$12,454
18.4%
2.50x
$7,526
$18,815
(4,691)
$14,124
4.00x
$4,928
$19,710
(3,321)
$16,390
3.09x
$12,454
$38,525
(8,012)
$30,514
$ - Gross Debt
x Cost of Funds
Interest Expense
$18,815
4.00%
$753
$19,710
4.50%
$887
$38,525
4.26%
$1,640
Revenue
Segment EBITDA
Less: Dis-Synergies
Pro Forma EBITDA
% - Margin (PF)
2.5x
1.9x
4.0x
3.3x
3.1x
2.5x
$
$38,525
(29,400)
$9,125
(500)
$8,625
Buyback Price
Price
Premium
Price to Acquire Shares
$84.55
10%
$93.01
Share Repurchase
$- Share Repurchase
Share Price at Repurchase
Shares Acquired
$8,625
$93.0
93
Shares
Starting Share Balance (12/31/2013)
Shares Acquired
Ending Shares
% Shares Acquired
1,535
(93)
1,443
6.0%
57
"BeveragesCo"
2012a
Income Statement
Revenue
% - Growth
EBIT
% - Growth
% - Margin
Net income
Fully diluted shares
Earnings per share
% - Growth
Credit statistics
Debt
EBITDA
Debt / EBITDA
Dividend
Dividend Per Share
% of FCF
% of EPS
$33,168
$34,781
4.9%
$36,626
5.3%
$38,571
5.3%
$40,621
5.3%
5.2%
$5,956
$6,301
5.8%
18.1%
$7,007
11.2%
19.1%
$7,743
10.5%
20.1%
$8,513
9.9%
21.0%
9.3%
$4,058
1,443
$2.81
$4,573
1,418
$3.23
14.7%
$5,056
1,369
$3.69
14.5%
$5,561 % CAGR
1,323 13-16
$4.20
14.3%
13.8%
18.0%
2013 PF(1)
$18,815 $18,815 $20,642 $22,553 $24,555
$7,526
$7,526
$8,257
$9,021
$9,822
2.50x
2.50x
2.50x
2.50x
2.50x
$1.52
50%
47%
$1.74
50%
47%
$1.98
50%
47%
300 bps
2012a
Income Statement
Revenue
% - Growth
EBIT
% - Growth
% - Margin
% CAGR
12 - 16
$32,324
$32,800
1.5%
$33,891
3.3%
$35,025
3.3%
$36,202
3.4%
2.9%
$3,726
$3,889
4.4%
11.9%
$3,955
1.7%
11.7%
$4,432
12.1%
12.7%
$4,921
11.0%
13.6%
7.2%
$2,171
1,443
$1.50
$2,219
1,402
$1.58
5.2%
$2,502
1,326
$1.89
19.2%
$2,790 % CAGR
1,257 13-16
$2.22
13.8%
17.6%
11.5%
Net income
Fully diluted shares
Earnings per share
% - Growth
Credit statistics
Debt
EBITDA
Debt / EBITDA
207 bps
2013 PF(1)
$19,710 $19,710 $21,691 $23,731 $25,831
$4,928
$5,328
$5,423
$5,933
$6,458
4.00x
3.70x
4.00x
4.00x
4.00x
Dividend
Dividend Per Share
% of FCF
% of EPS
$1.10
70%
70%
$1.31
70%
69%
$1.54
70%
69%
24.8%
$137.6
$144.4
(1) Pro forma for $800mm out-of-box dis-synergies at Beverages from separation (assume while $800m are identified, 50% offset by managements actions.
Note: The estimates, projections, pro forma information and potential impact of the opportunities identified by Trian Partners herein are based on assumptions that Trian
Partners believes to be reasonable as of the date of this presentation, but there can be no assurance or guarantee that actual results or performance will not differ, and
such differences may be material. Unless otherwise indicated, the figures set forth in this presentation, including internal rates of return (IRR), have not been calculated
using generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and have not been audited by independent accountants. Such figures may vary from GAAP accounting in material
respects and there can be no assurance that the unrealized values reflected in this presentation will be realized. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or
sale of any security.
Note: EBIT margin declines from 2013 to 2014 in Beverages due to dis-synergies from the separation.
58
Alternative B
$136
$138
12/31/15e
Value Per
Mondelez
Share: $72
Alternative A
$175
$144
$108
$85
Current Price
% - Upside
Status Quo
+28%
(2)
Spin North
Spin Americas (4)
America Beverage (3) Beverage
+61%
+63%
Spin all of
Beverage
+71%
(5)
+107%
Note: The estimates, projections, pro-forma information and potential impact of Trians ideas set forth herein are based on assumptions that Trian believes to be reasonable, but there can be
no assurance or guarantee that actual results or performance of the Issuer will not differ, and such differences may be material. This presentation does not recommend the purchase or sale
of any security.
(1) Includes cumulative dividends per share received through 12/31/15. PepsiCo share price as of 7/11/13 close.
(2) Assumes 2013E EPS and dividends are grown at the middle of managements long-term target of high-single-digits. Assumes an 18.4x NTM multiple (PepsiCos current multiple)
(3) Assumes $1.5bn of productivity savings and $200mm of beverage separation dis-synergies. 4.0x debt/EBITDA at beverage and 2.5x debt/EBITDA at snacks. Assumes snacks trades at
20.5x P/E and beverage trades at 15.1x P/E (5.00% dividend yield with a 70% payout ratio).
(4) Assumes $1.5bn of productivity savings and $250mm of beverage separation dis-synergies; 4.0x debt/EBITDA at beverage and 2.5x debt/EBITDA at snacks. Assumes snacks trades at
21x P/E and beverage trades at 16.0x P/E (4.75% dividend yield with a 70% payout ratio).
(5) Assumes $1.5bn of productivity savings and $400mm of beverage separation dis-synergies; 4.0x debt/EBITDA at beverage and 2.5x debt EBITDA at snacks. Assumes snacks trades at
23x P/E and beverage trades at 18.5x P/E (3.75% dividend yield with a 70% payout ratio).
(6) $35 offer for Mondelez and 4.5x gross leverage (snack de-levers to 2.8x constant debt/EBITDA by 2016 and beverage de-levers to 4.0x constant debt/EBITDA). Assumes $3.7bn of cost
synergies and Mondelez margin improvement; $3bn of revenue synergies. Assumes snacks trades at 23x P/E and beverage trades at 18.5x P/E (3.75% dividend yield with a 70%
payout ratio). Assumes $750mm of productivity savings at beverage and $400mm of beverage separation dis-synergies.
59