GDP Debt Model

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60.

001

50.001

40.001

GDP
National Debt
30.001 Total Debt
Household
Debt

20.001

10.001

0.001
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20
Ratios

Non- GDP /
National Total Financial Financial Househol Total
GDP Debt Debt Debt Debt d Debt Debt
1965 0.72 0.3 1.11 0.06 1.01 0.34 0.51
1966 0.79 0.3 1.19 0.07 1.08 0.36 0.53
1967 0.83 0.4 1.27 0.07 1.15 0.38 0.50
1968 0.91 0.4 1.37 0.08 1.24 0.41 0.51
1969 1 0.4 1.49 0.11 1.33 0.44 0.53
1970 1.04 0.5 1.6 0.13 1.42 0.46 0.50
1971 1.12 0.5 1.75 0.14 1.56 0.5 0.50
1972 1.24 0.6 1.94 0.16 1.71 0.56 0.49
1973 1.38 0.6 2.17 0.21 1.9 0.62 0.50
1974 1.5 0.6 2.41 0.26 2.07 0.68 0.50
1975 1.6 0.7 2.6 0.3 2.3 0.7 0.48
1976 1.8 0.7 2.9 0.3 2.5 0.8 0.50
1977 2 0.7 3.3 0.3 2.8 1 0.50
1978 2.3 0.8 3.8 0.4 3.2 1.1 0.50
1979 2.6 0.8 4.3 0.5 3.6 1.3 0.51
1980 2.8 0.9 4.7 0.6 4 1.4 0.50
1981 3.1 1 5.3 0.7 4.4 1.5 0.49
1982 3.3 1.2 5.8 0.8 4.8 1.6 0.47
1983 3.5 1.4 6.5 0.9 5.4 1.7 0.44
1984 3.9 1.6 7.4 1.1 6.1 1.9 0.43
1985 4.2 1.9 8.6 1.3 7.1 2.3 0.40
1986 4.5 2.1 9.8 1.6 8 2.5 0.38
1987 4.7 2.3 10.8 1.9 8.7 2.8 0.36
1988 5.1 2.6 11.9 2.1 9.5 3 0.35
1989 5.5 2.8 12.8 2.4 10.2 3.3 0.35
1990 5.8 3.2 13.8 2.6 10.8 3.6 0.34
1991 6 3.6 14.4 2.8 11.3 3.8 0.33
1992 6.3 4.1 15.2 3 11.8 4 0.33
1993 6.7 4.3 16.2 3.3 12.4 4.2 0.33
1994 7.1 4.7 17.2 3.8 13 4.5 0.32
1995 7.4 5 18.5 4.2 13.7 4.8 0.31
1996 7.8 5.2 19.8 4.7 14.4 5.2 0.31
1997 8.3 5.4 21.2 5.3 15.2 5.5 0.31
1998 8.8 5.5 23.3 6.3 16.2 5.9 0.31
1999 9.4 5.6 25.4 7.3 17.3 6.4 0.30
2000 9.9 5.7 27.2 8.2 18.2 7 0.30
2001 10.3 5.9 29.3 9.2 19.3 7.7 0.29
2002 10.6 6.2 31.8 10 20.7 8.5 0.28
2003 11.1 6.7 34.6 10.9 22.4 9.5 0.27
2004 11.9 7.3 37.8 11.9 24.4 10.5 0.26
2005 12.6 7.8 41.3 13 26.8 11.7 0.26
2006 13.4 8.5 45.3 14.3 29.2 12.9 0.25
2007 14.1 9 50 16.2 31.7 13.7 0.24
2008 14.4 10.5 52.5 17.1 33.6 13.8 0.23
2009 14.3 11.5 52.4 15.7 34.7 13.5 0.22

13.58
GDP / Non
GDP / Non GDPGrow Private financial
GDP / Nat Private Financial th / Debt Tot Debt debt debt
Debt Debt Debt growth Increase increase increase
2.40 0.89 0.71
2.63 0.89 0.73 0.88 0.08 0.08 0.07
2.08 0.95 0.72 0.22 0.08 (0.02) 0.07
2.28 0.94 0.73 0.80 0.10 0.10 0.09
2.50 0.92 0.75 0.75 0.12 0.12 0.09
2.08 0.95 0.73 0.19 0.46 0.11 0.01 0.09
2.24 0.90 0.72 0.53 0.43 0.15 0.15 0.14
2.07 0.93 0.73 0.41 0.47 0.19 0.09 0.15
2.30 0.88 0.73 0.61 0.47 0.23 0.23 0.19
2.50 0.83 0.72 0.50 0.45 0.24 0.24 0.17
2.29 0.84 0.70 0.34 0.47 0.19 0.09 0.23
2.57 0.82 0.72 0.67 0.50 0.30 0.30 0.20
2.86 0.77 0.71 0.50 0.52 0.40 0.40 0.30
2.88 0.77 0.72 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.40 0.40
3.25 0.74 0.72 0.60 0.53 0.50 0.50 0.40
3.11 0.74 0.70 0.40 0.52 0.40 0.30 0.40
3.10 0.72 0.70 0.43 0.48 0.60 0.50 0.40
2.75 0.72 0.69 0.29 0.43 0.50 0.30 0.40
2.50 0.69 0.65 0.22 0.36 0.70 0.50 0.60
2.44 0.67 0.64 0.36 0.33 0.90 0.70 0.70
2.21 0.63 0.59 0.20 0.29 1.20 0.90 1.00
2.14 0.58 0.56 0.21 0.25 1.20 1.00 0.90
2.04 0.55 0.54 0.17 0.23 1.00 0.80 0.70
1.96 0.55 0.54 0.29 0.24 1.10 0.80 0.80
1.96 0.55 0.54 0.36 0.24 0.90 0.70 0.70
1.81 0.55 0.54 0.21 0.25 1.00 0.60 0.60
1.67 0.56 0.53 0.20 0.25 0.60 0.20 0.50
1.54 0.57 0.53 0.23 0.26 0.80 0.30 0.50
1.56 0.56 0.54 0.33 0.27 1.00 0.80 0.60
1.51 0.57 0.55 0.29 0.25 1.00 0.60 0.60
1.48 0.55 0.54 0.19 0.25 1.30 1.00 0.70
1.50 0.53 0.54 0.27 0.26 1.30 1.10 0.70
1.54 0.53 0.55 0.31 0.27 1.40 1.20 0.80
1.60 0.49 0.54 0.23 0.25 2.10 2.00 1.00
1.68 0.47 0.54 0.27 0.25 2.10 2.00 1.10
1.74 0.46 0.54 0.26 0.27 1.80 1.70 0.90
1.75 0.44 0.53 0.17 0.25 2.10 1.90 1.10
1.71 0.41 0.51 0.11 0.20 2.50 2.20 1.40
1.66 0.40 0.50 0.15 0.18 2.80 2.30 1.70
1.63 0.39 0.49 0.21 0.18 3.20 2.60 2.00
1.62 0.38 0.47 0.18 0.17 3.50 3.00 2.40
1.58 0.36 0.46 0.17 0.17 4.00 3.30 2.40
1.57 0.34 0.44 0.13 0.17 4.70 4.20 2.50
1.37 0.34 0.43 0.08 0.15 2.50 1.00 1.90
1.24 0.35 0.41 (0.11) 0.13 (0.10) (1.10) 1.10

51.29 40.09 33.69


Assets

Consumer
Durables
Residenti (not GDP -
GDP Governe al Real included Debt
Increase Total mnt Private estate in Private) growth
2.12 0.50 1.39 0.71 0.23
0.07 2.30 0.54 1.51 0.77 0.25 -0.01
0.04 2.48 0.59 1.62 0.82 0.27 -0.04
0.08 2.73 0.64 1.79 0.91 0.30 -0.02
0.09 2.97 0.70 1.94 0.97 0.33 -0.03
0.04 3.23 0.78 2.10 1.03 0.35 -0.07
0.08 3.56 0.85 2.33 1.16 0.38 -0.07
0.12 3.91 0.92 2.57 1.30 0.41 -0.07
0.14 4.42 1.04 2.92 1.49 0.45 -0.09
0.12 5.25 1.28 3.45 1.69 0.53 -0.12
0.10 5.68 1.34 3.77 1.83 0.58 -0.09
0.20 6.20 1.42 4.15 2.03 0.64 -0.1
0.20 6.93 1.51 4.72 2.37 0.71 -0.2
0.30 7.85 1.65 5.40 2.74 0.80 -0.2
0.30 9.03 1.87 6.26 3.18 0.90 -0.2
0.20 10.26 2.15 7.12 3.58 0.99 -0.2
0.30 11.28 2.36 7.86 3.85 1.06 -0.3
0.20 11.88 2.49 8.29 4.03 1.10 -0.3
0.20 12.30 2.55 8.58 4.20 1.18 -0.5
0.40 13.00 2.65 9.08 4.44 1.27 -0.5
0.30 13.72 2.76 9.58 4.67 1.38 -0.9
0.30 14.63 2.93 10.18 5.04 1.52 -0.9
0.20 15.52 3.09 10.78 5.37 1.65 -0.8
0.40 16.51 3.25 11.46 5.71 1.80 -0.7
0.40 17.47 3.43 12.12 6.02 1.93 -0.5
0.30 18.31 3.60 12.68 6.26 2.04 -0.7
0.20 18.78 3.72 12.95 6.39 2.12 -0.4
0.30 19.57 3.88 13.50 6.74 2.19 -0.5
0.40 20.58 4.06 14.21 7.16 2.30 -0.6
0.40 21.81 4.29 15.09 7.67 2.42 -0.6
0.30 22.86 4.50 15.82 8.01 2.53 -1
0.40 23.95 4.68 16.64 8.45 2.63 -0.9
0.50 25.18 4.90 17.55 8.91 2.72 -0.9
0.50 26.57 5.10 18.63 9.49 2.84 -1.6
0.60 28.27 5.41 19.87 10.19 3.00 -1.5
0.50 30.16 5.72 21.24 10.90 3.20 -1.3
0.40 31.92 5.98 22.59 11.71 3.36 -1.7
0.30 33.53 6.25 23.75 12.46 3.52 -2.2
0.50 35.37 6.51 25.18 13.52 3.68 -2.3
0.80 38.89 7.26 27.75 15.13 3.88 -2.4
0.70 42.62 7.94 30.60 16.86 4.08 -2.8
0.80 45.92 8.78 32.87 18.03 4.27 -3.2
0.70 47.82 9.46 33.93 18.25 4.44 -4
0.30 48.14 9.32 34.26 17.41 4.56 -2.2
(0.10) -

13.58 46.01 8.82 32.87 16.70 4.33


Debt
increase-
Asset Value asset
growth Add increase

0.18 0.17
0.18 0.14
0.25 0.23
0.25 0.22
0.26 0.19
0.32 0.25
0.35 0.28
0.51 0.42
0.83 0.71
0.44 0.35
0.52 0.42
0.73 0.53
0.91 0.71
1.18 0.98
1.23 1.03
1.02 0.72
0.60 0.30
0.42 (0.08)
0.69 0.19
0.72 (0.18)
0.92 0.02
0.89 0.09
0.99 0.29
0.96 0.46
0.84 0.14
0.47 0.07
0.79 0.29
1.01 0.41
1.23 0.63
1.05 0.05
1.09 0.19
1.23 0.33
1.39 (0.21)
1.70 0.20
1.89 0.59
1.77 0.07
1.60 (0.60)
1.84 (0.46)
3.52 1.12
3.73 0.93
3.30 0.10
1.90 (2.10)
0.32 (1.88)
(48.14) (48.14)

(39.83)

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