FLOOD IN PAKISTAN

The 2010 Pakistan floods began in July 2010 following heavy monsoon rains in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan regions of Pakistan. Present estimates indicate that over two thousand people have died and over a million homes have been destroyed since the flooding began. The United Nations estimates that more than 21 million people are injured or homeless as a result of the flooding, exceeding the combined total of individuals affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and the 2010 Haiti earthquake. At one point, approximately one-fifth of Pakistan's total land area was underwater due to the flooding. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has asked for an initial $460 million for emergency relief, noting that the flood was the worst disaster he had ever seen. 50% of the relief funds requested has been received as of 15 August 2010. The U.N. is concerned that aid is not arriving fast enough, while the World Health Organization reported that ten million people were forced to drink unsafe water. The Pakistani economy has been harmed by extensive damage to infrastructure and crops. Structural damages are estimated to exceed 4 billion USD, and wheat crop damages are estimated to be over 500 million USD. Officials estimate the total economic impact to be as much as 43 billion USD.

Causes
Current flooding is blamed on unprecedented monsoon rain. The rainfall anomaly map published by NASA shows unusually intense monsoon rains attributed to La Nia. On 21 June, the Pakistan Meteorological Department cautioned that urban and flash flooding could occur from July to September in the north parts of the country. The same department recorded above-average rainfall in the months of July and August 2010, and monitored the flood wave progression. Some of the discharge levels recorded are comparable to those seen during the floods of 1988, 1995, and 1997. An article in the New Scientist attributed the cause of the exceptional rainfall to "freezing" of the jet stream, a phenomenon that reportedly also caused an unprecedented heat wave and wildfires in Russia as well as the 2007 United Kingdom floods.

Flooding and impact

Floods
Satellite images of the upper Indus River valley comparing water-levels on 1 August 2009 (top) and 31 July 2010 (bottom)

Monsoon rains were forecast to continue into early August and were described as the worst in this area in the last 80 years. The Pakistan Meteorological Department said that over 200 mm (7.88 inches) of rain fell over a 24-hour period over a number of places of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab and more was expected. A record-breaking 274 mm (10.7 inches) rain fell in Peshawar during 24 hours, previously 187 mm (7.36 inches) of rain was recorded in April 2009. So far 500,000 or more people have been displaced from their homes. On 30 July, Manuel Bessler, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, stated that 36 districts were involved, and 950,000 people were affected, although within a day, reports increased that number to as high as a million, and by mid-August to nearly 20 million affected. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial minister of information, Mian Iftikhar Hussain, said "the infrastructure of this province was already destroyed by terrorism. Whatever was left was finished off by these floods." He also called the floods "the worst calamity in our history." Four million Pakistanis were left with food shortages. Officials have warned that the death toll could rise, as many towns and villages are not accessible, and communications have been disrupted. In some areas, the water level was 5.5 m (18 ft) high and residents were seen on roof-tops waiting for aid to arrive. At least 1,588 people have been injured, 222,600 houses and 4,600 villages have been damaged or destroyed. The Karakoram Highway, which connects Pakistan with China, was closed after a bridge was destroyed. The ongoing devastating floods in Pakistan will have a severe impact on an already vulnerable population, says the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). In addition to all the other damages the floods have caused, floodwater have destroyed much of the health care infrastructure in the worst-affected areas, leaving inhabitants especially vulnerable to water-borne disease. In Sindh, the Indus River burst its banks near Sukkur on 8 August, submerging the village of Mor Khan Jatoi. There is also an absence of law and order, mainly in Sindh. Looters have been taking advantage of the floods by ransacking abandoned homes using boats. Affected areas as of August 26, 2010 In early August, the heaviest flooding moved southward along the Indus River from severely-affected northern regions toward western Punjab, where at least 1,400,000 acres (570,000 ha) of cropland was destroyed, and the southern province of Sindh. The crops affected were cotton, sugarcane, rice, pulses, tobacco and animal fodder. Floodwaters and rain destroyed 700,000 acres (3,000 km2) of cotton, 200,000 acres (800 km2) acres each of rice and cane, 500,000 tonnes of wheat and 300,000 acres (1,000 km2) of animal fodder. According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association, the floods destroyed 2 million bales of cotton, which led to an increase in futures of the commodity in international market.170,000 citizens (or 70% of the population) of the historic Sindh town of Thatta fled advancing flood waters on 27 August 2010. Pakistani authorities predicted that additional rainfall was expected to trigger two further waves of flooding in the mid-August, inundating more land and swallowing more villages. One of these new flood surges was sweeping down from mountainous areas in

the north as of August 11, and was expected to hit highly populated areas in the coming days, while the second wave was being formed in the mountains.

Heavy rainfalls recorded during the wet spell of July 2010

Heavy rainfalls of more than 200 millimetres (7.9 in) recorded during the four day wet spell of July 27 to July 30, 2010 in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab based on data from the Pakistan Meteorological Department.[25] City Risalpur Islamabad Murree Cherat Garhi Dopatta Saidu Sharif Peshawar Kamra Rawalakot Muzaffarabad Lahore Mianwali Jhelum Lower Dir Kohat Balakot Sialkot Pattan DIR Gujranwala Dera Ismail Khan Rawalpindi Rainfall (mm) *415 394 373 *372 346 *338 *333 308 297 292 288 *271 269 263 *262 256 255 242 231 222 220 219 Rainfall (in) 16.3 15.5 14.6 14.6 13.6 13.3 13.1 12.1 11.7 11.5 11.3 10.6 10.6 10.3 10.3 10.0 10.0 9.5 9.10 8.7 8.6 8.6 Province Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Islamabad Capital Territory Punjab Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Azad Kashmir Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Azad Kashmir Azad Kashmir Punjab Punjab Punjab Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Azad Kashmir Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab

* Indicates new record.

Aftermath
The power infrastructure of Pakistan also took a severe blow from the floods, which damaged 10,000 transmission lines and transformers, feeders and power houses in different flood-hit areas. Flood water inundated Jinnah Hydro power and 150 power houses in Gilgit. The damage caused a power shortfall of 3.135 gigawatt.

Aid agencies have warned that outbreaks of diseases, such as: gastroenteritis, diarrhea, and skin diseases due to lack of clean drinking water and sanitation can pose a serious new risk to flood victims. On 14 August, the first documented case of cholera emerged in the town of Mingora, striking fear into millions of stranded flood victims, who are already suffering from gastroenteritis and diarrhea. It has been reported by the International Red Cross that a large number of unexploded ordinance, such as mines and artillery shells, have been flushed down stream by the floods from areas in Kashmir and Waziristan and scattered in low lying areas, posing a future risk to returning inhabitants. The United Nations estimated that 800,000 people have been cut off by floods in Pakistan and are only reachable by air. It also stated that at least 40 more helicopters are needed to ferry lifesaving aid to increasingly desperate people. Many of those cut off are in the mountainous northwest, where roads and bridges have been swept away. By order of President Asif Ali Zardari, there were no official celebrations of Pakistan's 63rd Independence Day on 14 August, due to the calamity the country faces.

Potential long term effects

Food
Floods have submerged 17 million acres (69,000 km2) of Pakistan's most fertile crop land, have killed 200,000 herd of livestock and have washed away massive amounts of grain. A major concern is that farmers will be unable to meet the fall deadline for planting new seeds in 2010, which implies a massive loss of food production in 2011, and potential long term food shortages. The agricultural damages are more than 2.9 billion dollars, according to recent estimates, and include over 700,000 acres (2,800 km2) of lost cotton crops, 200,000 acres (810 km2) of sugar cane and 200,000 acres (810 km2) of rice, in addition to the loss of over 500,000 tonnes of stocked wheat, 300,000 acres (1,200 km2) of animal fodder and the stored grain losses. Agricultural crops such as cotton, rice, and sugarcane and to some extent mangoes were badly affected in Punjab, according to a Harvest Tradings-Pakistan spokesman. He called for the international community to fully participate in the rehabilitation process, as well as for the revival of agricultural crops in order to get better GDP growth in the future. In affected Multan Division in South Punjab, some people were seen to be engaging in profit-taking in this disaster, raising their prices up to Rs 130/kg. Some have called for Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited to write off all agricultural loans in the affected areas in Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pukhtunkhwa especially for small farmers.

Infrastructure
Floods have damaged an estimated 2,433 miles of highway and 3,508 miles (5,646 km) of railway. Cost estimates for highway damages are approximately 158 million USD, and railway damages are 131 million USD. Any unique or particularly large infrastructure damages will increase these estimates. Public building damages are estimated at 1 billion USD.

Taliban insurgency
The flood will divert Pakistani military forces from fighting the Pakistani Taliban insurgents (TTP) in the northwest because they will be needed to help in the relief effort. It is feared that this will allow Taliban fighters to regroup. On the other hand, some are suggesting that by helping flood victims, the US has an opportunity to improve its image. The Pakistani Taliban have also engaged in relief efforts and are making inroads where the government is absent or seen as corrupt. As the flood may have dislodged many property markers, it is feared that governmental delay and corruption will give an advantage to the Taliban to settle these disputes swiftly. A Taliban spokesperson asked the Pakistani government to reject Western help from "Christians and Jews" and claimed that the Taliban could raise $20 million to replace that aid. According to a US official the TTP had issued a threat saying that it will launch attacks against foreigners participating in flood relief operations. In response, the United Nations said it was reviewing security arrangements for its workers. The World Health Organization stated that work in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was already suffering because of the security concerns there. However, an unverified Taliban spokesperson based in Orakzai told The Express Tribune: We have not issued any such threat; and we dont have any plans to attack relief workers." Reportedly three American Christians were killed by the Taliban on August 25 in the Swat Valley.

Political effects
Floods have been theorized to have future political consequences mostly due to public perception of governance inefficacies and it has been said that if the situation is not adequately addressed specially with fight against terrorism going on in Pakistan, it might lead to future political unrest. These political effects of the floods have been compared with that of 1970 Bhola cyclone.

Economic effects
On 7 September 2010, the International Labour Organization reported that more than 5.3 million jobs have been lost due to the floods, emphasizing that "productive and labor intensive job creation programmes are urgently needed to lift millions of people out of poverty that has been aggravated by flood damage". The GDP growth rate of 4% prior to the floods may turn negative with the estimates ranging from -2% to -5% of GDP.

Though the GDP growth may improve in 2011 and beyond, it will be several years before it can return to the 4% level of 2009. The loss of crops will hit the textile manufacturing which is the largest export sector of Pakistan. Furthermore, the loss of over 10 million heads of livestock's along with the loss of other crops will bring down the total agricultural production by more than 15%. Toyota and Unilever Pakistan have said that the floods may sap growth, necessitating production cuts as people struggle to cope with the destruction. Parvez Ghias the chief executive of Pakistan's largest motor automaker Toyota described the economy's state as "fragile". Nationwide car sales are predicted to fall as much as 25%, forcing automakers to reduce production in October 2010 from the pre-flood level of 200 cars per day. The milk supplies have also fallen by 15%, which will cause the retail price of milk to increase by Pk Rs 4 (5 US cents) per liter. Some investors have started to buy the devalued stock in the hope that they will rise again.

Benefits of Floods:

Floods return nutrientsto the land and contribute to the heath of wetlands. Floods distribute rich sediment and refresh streams. Allowing rivers and streams to overflow their banks naturally can prevent more serious flooding downstream.

Natural Protection From Floods:

Wetlands allow floods to spread over a large area and cause little or no damage. Parks, open space and wetlands are a rich source of wildlife, and a natural flood protection measure. Wetlands even purify your water and air!