ABB Strategy 2011: Zurich, Switzerland September 5, 2007
ABB Strategy 2011: Zurich, Switzerland September 5, 2007
ABB Strategy 2011: Zurich, Switzerland September 5, 2007
Agenda
Introduction Market and competition Group portfolio Divisional strategies Regional opportunities Technology and energy efficiency Financial strategy and targets M&A strategy Organization and people Summary
ABB Group 2007
Fred Kindle
Chart 2
Introduction
Safe-harbor statement
This presentation includes forward-looking information and statements including statements concerning the outlook and targets for our businesses. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the factors that may affect our future performance, including the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for ABB. These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as aims, expects, believes, estimates, targets, plans or similar expressions. However, there are many risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information and statements made in this presentation and which could affect our ability to achieve any or all of our stated targets. The important factors that could cause such differences include, among others, the amount of revenues we are able to generate from order backlogs and orders received, raw materials prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations and costs associated with compliance activities, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in ABBs filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Annual Reports on Form 20-F. Although ABB Ltd believes that its expectations reflected in any such forward-looking statement are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved.
Chart 3
Introduction
17 consecutive quarters2 of performance improvement Clean results with few one-offs A- rating from Standard & Poors, Baa1 from Moodys Delivered 2 years early
Chart 4
Introduction
30,000
14% 12%
EBIT margin (% revenues) H1 revenues 2005-2007
Revenues in $ million
0%
Profitable growth
Source: 1988-1993 and 1998-1999 as per respective annual reports; 1994-1997 as per 1997 annual report; 2000 to 2006 as per the corresponding Form 20-F filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; 1999 EBIT includes major gains from divestitures; 2005-2007 includes ABB Lummus Global in continuing operations
Chart 5
Introduction
ABBs vision and mission: Power and productivity for a better world
Continued focus on power and automation Market outlook and ABBs leading positions allow for continued value generation we are in the right business! Increasing customer emphasis on environmental issues and energy efficiency opens new opportunities
ABBs current business portfolio is well suited for future value creation
Strong in utility and important industrial segments Significant links and synergies in technology, industries and customers served, product and service offering Attractive growth and profitability opportunities exist without diversification or further focusing
Chart 6
Introduction
ABB is in the right business with ample opportunity to create more value
Chart 7
Introduction
Revenue growth
(CAGR) 1
8-11% 11-16% corridor 15-20% Annual avg. 100% > 30% in 2011
Upside potential represents 3x global GDP growth and almost 2x market growth Further potential gains from both the market and internal improvements Driven by operating measures and financial improvements Higher capital expenditure to be offset
100% per year by net working capital discipline 2005-09 Mid-teens in 2009
Sustained earnings generation on organic growth, efficient incremental capital expenditure and low tax rate
Compound annual growth rate 2007-11 (i.e., base year = 2006), excl. major acquisitions and divestments and at constant exchange rates 2 Earnings per share, undiluted 3 Free cash flow as % net income 4 After tax Chart 8
Agenda
Introduction Market and competition Group portfolio Divisional strategies Regional opportunities Technology and energy efficiency Financial strategy and targets M&A strategy Organization and people Summary
ABB Group 2007
Chart 9
Market overview
4%
8%
2%
0%
ABB Group 2007
12%
Chart 10
Market overview
Total market size 2006: $75 billion Growth CAGR 2007-11: 6-8%
1
Chart 11
Market overview
Total market size 2006: $115 billion Growth CAGR 2007-11: 5-6%
1
Chart 12
Regional market sizes 2006 (in US$ billion) and market positions
Europe
$67 bn
#1 #1 #1 #1
Asia
#1 #1
Americas
$58 bn
$44 bn
#2 #2
$20 bn
Middle East and Africa
Chart 13
Regional market sizes 2011 in US$ billion, total growth vs 2006 in US$ and %
Europe
$83 bn
+$16 bn Americas
24%
Asia
$88 bn
$28 bn
$55 bn
+$11 bn
25%
+$29 bn
52%
+$8 bn
40% Middle East and Africa
Chart 14
Political risks
Energy nationalism leading to price and supply disruptions Political instabilities (e.g. Middle East, Latin America)
Sporadic catastrophic events, such as a global pandemic, largescale terrorist attacks, natural catastrophe
Chart 16
Agenda
Introduction Market and competition Group portfolio Divisional strategies Regional opportunities Technology and energy efficiency Financial strategy and targets M&A strategy Organization and people Summary
ABB Group 2007
Chart 17
Power Products
$7.4 bn 30,000 employees
High- and mediumvoltage products and transformers for switching, protecting, measuring and automating power transmission and distribution
ABB Group 2007
Power Systems
$4.5 bn 13,000 employees
HVDC, FACTS, cables, network management, control & protection products and services, electrical balance of plant and control for power plants, complete turnkey substations, services
Automation Products
$6.8 bn 30,500 employees
Low-voltage products and systems, drives, power electronics, motors and machines, instrumentation and product service
Process Automation
$5.4 bn 24,000 employees
Process control and information management systems, industryspecific applications, component controls, maintenance and performance services
Robotics
$1.3 bn 4,500 employees
Robots and robotic systems for painting, welding, packing and palletizing, material handling and assembling
Chart 18
Automation Products
Power Products
Transformers Circuit breakers Aluminum smelter
Power Systems
Substations Long-term service support
Robotics
Palletizing robots
Chart 19
Technology synergies
Switching and breaking Insulation and limiting Power electronics Control and protection Software and communications Sensing and analyzing
Customer synergies
ABBs top 31 Global customers
The average customer buys from 4 of ABBs 5 divisions 7 of them buy from all 5 divisions
ABB Group 2007
Strong synergies already exist, but there is potential for much more
Chart 20
Agenda
Introduction Market and competition Group portfolio Divisional strategies Regional opportunities Technology and energy efficiency Financial strategy and targets M&A strategy Organization and people Summary
ABB Group 2007
Chart 21
Divisional strategies
Market outlook/drivers
Further enlargement, reinforcement of grids in emerging markets Reliability, aged infrastructure refurbishment and upgrade, interconnections, integration of renewables in North America, Europe
Industry 11%
Market position
1 High-voltage products Medium-voltage products Transformers ABB ABB ABB 2 Siemens Schneider Siemens 3 Areva Siemens Areva
Chart 22
Divisional strategies
Targets 2007-11 Revenue growth
Action plan
Maintain technology leadership Continue to focus on markets offering high growth potential
0%
12%
EBIT margin
17% EBIT margin corridor 12%
9.1%
Outgrow the market in all businesses Build the service business Order execution: quality, on-time delivery, capacity management Strengthen indirect channels to market Drive global footprint optimization, including the transformer consolidation
12.9%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Chart 23
Divisional strategies
Market outlook/drivers
Industrialization and GDP growth in emerging markets (Asia, Middle East) Increasing demand in North America, Europe
Competitive advantages
Innovative solutions: High-efficiency bulk power transmission, offshore connections (e.g., oil & gas), connecting islands, integrating wind power, energy trading Superior market coverage: Global reach with unmatched solution capabilities and project management record #1 customer choice for large, sophisticated solutions
ABB Group 2007
Market position
Business line
Grid systems Substations Network management Power generation
(electrical balance of plant)
1
ABB ABB ABB
Siemens
2
Siemens Siemens Siemens
3
Areva Areva Areva Areva
Economies of scope: Integration capabilities from engineered packages to full turnkey systems and services
ABB
Chart 24
Divisional strategies
Action plan
Maintain and strengthen overall market and technology leadership Push new applications and solutions, e.g., Ultra HVDC, offshore windfarms, oil platform connections Leverage installed base for service Focus on continuous operational improvements, including project execution Drive process and system standardization further
0%
12%
EBIT margin
10% EBIT margin corridor
6.1%
6%
3.2%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Chart 25
Divisional strategies
Market outlook/drivers
Industrial growth, electricity consumption, degree of automation, construction General GDP development
Competitive advantages
Technology leadership: Continuous pipeline of advanced demand-driven technology Price/value: Economies of scale, smart design and global sourcing Global reach: Market penetration and above-average growth secured by global scope, large direct sales force, and premium channel partners Excellence: Products recognized for quality and reliability based on operational excellence in production, distribution and response time
Direct to end-users 20% Wholesalers & distributors 20%
Market position1
Business line
Drives and power electronics Low-voltage systems2 Motors and machines Industrial low-voltage products Installation material2
2
Siemens Schneider Siemens Siemens Legrand Yokogawa
IEC standard
3
Rockwell Siemens WEG Rockwell/
ABB ABB
Instrumentation
1
Endress+H/
ABB
Chart 26
Divisional strategies
Targets 2007-11 Revenue growth
8% revenue growth
Action plan
Exploit regional growth opportunities (e.g., China, India and North America), and application areas (e.g., rail, water, oil & gas, power generation, incl. wind) Keep technology leadership, push smart design of standardized products (functionality and cost) Tap service opportunities Continue with global footprint and operational excellence
0%
12%
EBIT margin
19%
15.4%
12.5%
14%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Chart 27
Divisional strategies
Market outlook/drivers
High energy prices GDP growth (esp. in emerging countries) Customer focus on productivity, reliability and longer equipment life
Competitive advantages
Technology leadership: System 800xA control platform offers state-of-the-art functionality, allows integration of existing control systems, reduces development costs for product variants Economies of scope: Broad industrial and geographic presence, industry expertise for tailor-made solutions in many sectors
ABB Group 2007
Market position
Business line
Pulp & paper Marine Oil & gas (upstream) Turbocharging Minerals Metals Chemicals & pharma**
2
METSO Siemens Siemens Mitsubishi
3
Honeywell Converteam Honeywell MAN FLS TMEIC Yokogawa
ABB ABB
Emerson
Source: ABB, ARC Advisory Group 2005; Clarkson Research, Diesel and Gas Turbine & Motorship magazine ** ABB in 5th position
Chart 28
Divisional strategies
8% revenue growth
Action plan
0% 12%
EBIT margin
14% EBIT margin corridor 9%
5.8%
9.9%
Capture the continuing growth potential in Asia and the Middle East, and the service potential in Europe and the Americas Deliver higher product content in our system offerings Strengthen product sales Utilize more engineering and sourcing from low-cost countries Focus on risk management and project execution
2011
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Chart 29
Divisional strategies
Market outlook/drivers
Improved process quality Need for more flexible production Environmental issues, health & safety
Competitive advantages
Leading market position: Large installed base of industrial robots (145,000 units) Technology leadership: Best-in-class robot controller products, leading paint robots Service: Largest service network for robotics in the world Economies of scope: Integration capabilities from engineered packages to full turnkey systems, and services limited vertical integration enhances flexibility and ROCE
Systems 30%
Market position
Business line Foundry Painting Plastics Metal fabrication Packaging Robotics systems
1 ABB ABB
Fanuc Yaskawa Fanuc
2
Fanuc Yaskawa
3
Kuka Fanuc Kuka Fanuc Kuka Eisenmann
ABB
Chart 30
Divisional strategies
Robotics strategy
Strategic goal
Re-establish ABB among the top 2 suppliers in the industry Lift margins through operational excellence, tap selective growth opportunities
6% revenue growth
Action plan
0% 12%
EBIT margin
10% EBIT margin corridor
5.5%
Take advantage of global opportunities and trends, e.g., in China Expand further into non-automotive sectors Expand service portfolio Simplify product portfolio and implement product re-design to cost Standardize products further
2010 2011
5%
0.1%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Agenda
Introduction Market and competition Group portfolio Divisional strategies Regional opportunities Technology and energy efficiency Financial strategy and targets M&A strategy Organization and people Summary
ABB Group 2007
Chart 32
Regional opportunities
Share of 2006 total Group orders received
Europe
44%
$67 bn 4-5%
Connecting power grids, energy trading, utility consolidation, renewables, power plant improvements, e.g.
Linking offshore wind to mainland grids: a key opportunity for ABB
Germany to spend $110 bn on power plant upgrades and T&D by 2020 Wind power to grow from 3% of Europe total energy today to 16% by 2020
Further industrial automation to improve cost competitiveness, industrial growth to continue in eastern Europe on lower cost base, falling trade barriers, privatization
ABB Group 2007
Chart 33
Regional opportunities
Share of 2006 total Group orders received
Americas
18%
$44 bn 5%
Grid reliability concerns, U.S. Energy Bill and growth in renewables drive power investments
$56 bn investment in U.S. power generation and T&D over the next 10 years2
US grid upgrades to drive growth for several years
Need to upgrade aging power infrastructure in Brazil, Argentina and Chile is growing
U.S. industrial production expected to remain healthy, large market opportunity for ABB Automation needs also driven by oil & gas in Canada and Mexico, rapid growth in mining sector in South America
e.g. worlds largest iron ore and copper reserves in Brazil and Chile
Chart 34
Regional opportunities
Share of 2006 total Group orders received
$20 bn 7%
Continued strong economic growth: Oil & gas (2/3 of world supply) to generate annual revenue of $325 bn Deregulation and privatization to accelerate, investments in further infrastructure upgrades (incl. desalination) and grid interconnections $100 bn investment in power capacity over the next 10 years (adding 80,000 MW) Industrial diversification beyond oil, esp. metals & mining and chemicals; rapid pace of construction to support economic growth
Chart 35
Regional opportunities
Share of 2006 total Group orders received
$40 bn 8%
Chinese utilities continue expansion plans as economy expected to grow 8-10% 2006-11
Increased investments in T&D to catch up with power generation capacity Greater local emphasis in JV structures
Construction in China drives growth for ABB low- and medium-voltage products
Additional $335 bn earmarked for major projects in rail, wind, oil & gas and water
Chart 36
Regional opportunities
Share of 2006 total Group orders received
$18 bn 9%
Power and T&D investments in India: More than 100 GW new capacity expected by 2015
Per capita consumption to double (rural electrification and grid efficiency) Inter-regional connection capacity to triple by 2012
India expected to be the worlds fastest growing steel producer to 2015
Delhi
Chart 37
Global footprint
Seize opportunities to balance global footprint and managing global customer accounts to ensure ABBs long-term success
Emerging markets offer low-cost opportunities to establish a global 3 supply chain and manufacturing base to improve competitiveness, reduce export risks and increase operational flexibility
4
ABB Group 2007
Group Account Management seize significant profitable growth opportunities of successful cross-divisional account management with ABBs major customers this already accounts for 15% of ABBs business
Chart 38
Agenda
Introduction Market and competition Group portfolio Divisional strategies Regional opportunities Technology and energy efficiency Financial strategy and targets M&A strategy Organization and people Summary
ABB Group 2007
Chart 39
Technology
6,000 researchers and developers worldwide >50% of research efforts aimed at improving energy efficiency
Chart 40
Technology
Technology
HVDC Classic
Mitigating the environmental impacts of power while dramatically improving grid efficiency and reliability
HVDC Light
(underground)
400
1970
2000
2010
Chart 42
Technology
Primary energy
Available energy
Chart 43
Technology
Primary energy
Available energy
Process Automation
Grid operation
Process automation
Chart 44
Technology
Fitted two ferries with Azipod, eliminating need for propulsion motor, main propeller, rudder Reduced CO2 emissions 68 million kg/yr
1
Chart 45
Technology
FACTS
(AC grid connection)
HVDC Light
(underground or subsea connections to the grid)
Power electronics
(control unstable power flows)
Chart 46
Agenda
Introduction Market and competition Group portfolio Divisional strategies Regional opportunities Technology and energy efficiency Industry initiatives M&A strategy Organization and people Summary
ABB Group 2007
Chart 47
Plan assumptions
World GDP to grow 3-3.5%1 per year over the 2007-11 period ABBs markets to grow ca. 6%1 over the period Commodity prices stabilizing at a high level Further benefits from operational improvements
Accelerate global footprint initiative (ca. $400 million benefit in last 2 yrs.) Positive impact from One Simple ABB G&A (excl. R&D) to grow much slower than revenues HQ costs to remain stable, well below 1% of revenues
Chart 48
Financial targets
Chart 49
Target review
World GDP1 3%
2%
ABBs market 6%
6% 4% 8%
8%
0%
12%
6%
Chart 50
Target review
Margin corridor
10.6% 8.1%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
11%
Drivers
Pricing culture Accelerated global footprint initiatives, incl. sourcing Convert fixed costs to variable costs Optimized G&A expenses Excellence in risk and quality management Standardized processes and systems: One Simple ABB
Chart 51
Target review
15-20% CAGR1
0.65
0.36
Drivers
2011
2005
2006
Positive impact from finance net reflecting healthy balance sheet Sustainable low tax rate (27% or lower) No surprises: Discontinued operations flat Higher EPS despite increasing minority interests on strong developing markets
Chart 52
Capital expenditure expected to continue above depreciation (ca. 120%) Exponential output given the low cost of incremental capacity Higher capex to be offset by net working capital discipline (avg. 11% of revenues over the cycle) Capital employed to grow at only a fraction of revenue growth Asbestos payments will affect cash conversion ratio
2007: $350 million; 2008: $100 million; 2010-11: $50 million contingent
Capex1
Cash flow from operating activities
ABB Group 2007 incl. asbestos payments
Net income
Chart 53
Target review
>30%
14% 8% 3%
20%
WACC1
Capital expenditure focus on emerging economies (higher output per dollar invested)
EBIT
Tax rate
Capital employed
Chart 54
Financial strategy
Investment priorities 1 Organic growth, R&D, and operational excellence 2 Value-creating acquisitions
ABB Group 2007
1 Total
debt divided by the sum of total debt plus equity, incl. minority interest
Chart 55
Agenda
Introduction Market and competition Group portfolio Divisional strategies Regional opportunities Technology and energy efficiency Financial strategy and targets M&A strategy Organization and people Summary
ABB Group 2007
Chart 56
M&A
Medium
High
Process Automation
Low
Average
High
Very High
M&A
Acquisitions must create strategic and financial value, be sound in strategic concept, fair in price, and not too difficult to integrate Strategy
Target must fit into portfolio and business strategy Technology position > market position > market share
Operations
Sufficient internal capacity to integrate target Cultural compatibility preferred
Financial
ROI must meet target return (>WACC), NPV positive ROI target return to be achieved after 3 years Accretion/dilution relevant but not decisive Limited financial risk, maximum leverage within solid investment grade credit rating
Chart 58
M&A
Screened more than 100 large targets* Identified dozens of potentially attractive businesses Put most targets on hold for price reasons
We will continue to stay both ambitious and disciplined Value creation is at the center of our strategy
Acquisitions must create value; we would rather err on the conservative side Balance sheet needs to be optimized accordingly
* Assessed within the past 18 months, large = companies valued at $500 million or above in mature economies, $200 million or above in emerging economies
Chart 59
Agenda
Introduction Market and competition Group portfolio Divisional strategies Regional opportunities Technology and energy efficiency Financial strategy and targets M&A strategy Organization and people Summary
ABB Group 2007
Chart 60
Our ambition is to employ the best people in the industry We plan to create 20,000 new jobs to execute our strategy ABB is considered a top employer in many countries We offer great development opportunities in a global, dynamic environment
ABB organization
Keep the structural organization clear and simple Strong focus on systems and processes (e.g. One Simple ABB) Focus shifting from corporate center* cost reduction to corporate center value creation (e.g., supply management)
Chart 61
Agenda
Introduction Market and competition Group portfolio Divisional strategies Regional opportunities Technology and energy efficiency Financial strategy and targets M&A strategy Organization and people Summary
ABB Group 2007
Chart 63
Summary
1 2
We have proven that we can deliver reliable, attractive results We are in the right markets for continued profitable growth, i.e., power infrastructure, energy efficiency, productivity investments in established and emerging economies ABBs vision, mission and portfolio are sound and provide ample opportunities to create value. Divisions follow clear and promising strategic roadmaps. We will make acquisitions that fit our strategy, can be successfully integrated and create financial value (focus on filling gaps and moving into adjacent areas, no diversification) Focus on business execution will continue, including systems and process improvements (e.g., One Simple ABB) and improving cost and market position by adjusting our global footprint
5
ABB Group 2007
Chart 64
The organization is working well no major changes planned Our people strategy is becoming a central pillar for future success, e.g., the best people in the industry, global culture, truly inclusive, attractive development opportunities results but also in business ethics and occupational health and safety
Chart 65
Agenda
Introduction Market and competition Group portfolio Divisional strategies Regional opportunities Technology and energy efficiency Financial overview and targets M&A strategy Organization and people Summary Q&A
ABB Group 2007
Chart 67
New targets
Revenue growth
(CAGR) 1
8-11% 11-16% corridor 15-20% Annual avg. 100% > 30% in 2011
10% 11% 8% 8% 6%
Compound annual growth rate 2007-11 (i.e., base year = 2006), excl. major acquisitions and divestments and at constant exchange rates 2 Earnings per share, undiluted 3 Free cash flow as % net income 4 After tax Chart 68
Target definitions
Revenue growth CAGR
Compound annual growth rate of revenues for the five years from 2007 to 2011 (i.e., starting point = 2006), excluding major acquisitions and divestitures and assuming constant exchange rates The minimum and maximum earnings before interest and taxes as a percentage of revenues expected for each year within the period 2007 to 2011 Compound annual growth rate of earnings per share (undiluted) from 2007 to 2011 (i.e., starting point = 2006) Free cash flow (cash flow from operating activities adjusted for changes in financing receivables as well as net investments in property, plant and equipment) as a percentage of net income EBIT (less tax), divided by the sum of fixed assets plus net working capital (at year end) EBIT (less tax) = EBIT x (1 tax rate) Tax rate = Provision for taxes / Income from continuing operations before taxes and minority interest
EBIT margin corridor EPS growth Cash conversion Return on capital employed
Chart 69