BestoftheBlogPart2&BettingAdvantage

FLHorseRacingSoftware

4/5/2011 FrontlinePublishing

Introduction
Welcome back to the FL Horse Racing Softwares Best Blog Posts Part 2. The purpose of this free PDF giveaway is to bundle together some of my most helpful horse racing blog posts which you can read at will without having to go back to the blog. The posts themselves offer additional horse racing information which is not always accessible to the everyday bettor. Ive also include a section for newbies, this is my Betting Advantage PDF which shows how important the basics are and how to avoid mistakes. Ive compiled a list of the headlined quotes from all the current blog posts as a way of quickly addressing common race issues. Mainly as a point of reference to any form study you may be doing.

Part 2 Best of the blog

Page 3-9, Class Act To Follow by Ross Turner in: Nov 12 - When looking at any horse
race we can be certain of one thing and one thing only. One of these horses will win the race The ability of each horse cannot solely lie with its last race or last couple of races From 30 feet away she looked like a lot of class. From 10 feet away she looked like something made up to be seen from 30 feet away. Raymond Chandler

Page 10-13, Focus On Fitness by Ross Turner Dec 13 - Fit and race fit are two
completely different things

Page 14-17, Punter to Professional by Ross Turner Jan 13 Is one month really long
enough to get used to using the FL software? Thinking about how you cans find profitable ways to use the FL Software should be one of your main focuses whether you are successful using it already or not.

Page 18-26, Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide by Ross Turner March 4th
Simply identify the number of runners in the race that the selection is running in and select the appropriate row from the table

Page 27-30, Bonus: Betting Advantage Planning, Ground Conditions, Patience, Form,
and Consistency is the Key, Distance, Weight, & Discipline
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 ClassActToFollowbyRossTurnerin:Nov12

Friday already..! Is it me or do the weeks just seem to fly by at the moment, Im constantly reminded by my elders that as the years tick by you notice time seems to move a great deal faster however you seem to move a great deal slower, Im hoping its just the cold weather. Maybe this is another reason why some people just want to get to the nitty gritty of form reading and really just apply a few methods to enable them to quickly differentiate between possible selection. I do think that sometimes over study can play apart in what you are actually trying to achieve as a form reader and the notion of form reading perfection seems unattainable for the average racing enthusiast. My point here is to make sure everyone not only understand what we are trying to do when looking at a horses chances within a race, but also that you are able to apply some of the reasons and methods laid out within this blog. By not only encouraging you to introduce some of the methods into your own selection process, but to do so quickly and easily but most importantly, effectively. When looking at any horse race we can be certain of one thing and one thing only. One of these horses will win the race Now Im sure a few of you may be saying, Yes but what about a dead heat? Lets not worry about that as the odds for this happening in the race you are dealing with are somewhat remote, and Ive only ever been involved in a handful of races when this affected my selection. Even with a dead heat this is certainly better than the horse finishing runner up. Now Im certain someone will dig out the facts for dead heats for this year and last and I know Ive read it somewhere already but I cant remember off the top of my head today.

Class Act To Follow Continued;

Watching and taking note of how a close race or a weak affair finished can give you a great insight in the structure of the race and the horses performing within it. Especially if you following a particular horses progress. As we all know Handicap races are supposed to finish with all the horses finishing together, at least that what the Handicapper is trying to predict when handing out penalties. Unfortunately certain aspects of todays elements, horses form past or present as well as any current fitness issues allow little chance of this actually happening. Usually what happens is that the horses running in Handicap races are just as strung out as in all other types of races. So how do we start to predict todays performances, well you should normally start by looking at the figures that todays horses have ran previously. In general when horses run well they receive good finishing form numbers and when they dont they receive bad ones. This is taking recent form into account only and we all know by now that there is more to this than first meet the betting eye. The ability of each horse cannot solely lie with its last race or last couple of races There are many reasons why a horse may not run to its recent form numbers, such as unsuitable distance, wrong type of track, draw biases, pace problems, trouble getting an open run, wrong ground conditions, class, and the list goes on. However what you need to do at this early stage of the selection process is to determine which horses seem capable under reasonable circumstances, of winning the race.

Class Act To Follow Continues;

Some races are easier than others to qualify and the reason for this has to be the quality of the race as well as the history of the horses competing. What to look for;

One way to determine the competition is to follow the Official Rating of the top 3 to 4 runners within todays race. If the top rated horse for example is running of an official rating of 79, and the other three horses have exceeded or been around this number recently and nobody else within the race has beaten a 79 rated horse, its not likely someone will pull off a surprise. The simple way to do this is look at all horses last runs (if won) and see what type of competition they ran against in their last race, the Racing Post history will give you all the Official Ratings of horses it ran against previously. At this stage of the process youre not really evaluating form but simply getting a feel for each horse and its ability. Race Class; From 30 feet away she looked like a lot of class. From 10 feet away she looked like something made up to be seen from 30 feet away. Raymond Chandler The argument for horses chances of winning when dropping back in Class than when stepping up in Class gives a good indication of what to look for.

There are several reasons for this; 1: The Easier Pace Of Lower Class Races. 2: The Quality Of The Opposition, (some of which may be moving up in class to compete). 3: The Fact That A Horse Is Often Dropped In Class After A Dull Effort (and then it produces its usually effort in milder competition. 4: The Previous Class Not Suiting The Horse (especially after a long layoff as well as having a fitness issues).
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Class Act To Follow Continues;

Prize money in Handicap races is the bread and butter for any stable throughout the season, so what affect does this have on Class? Quality of the field can be determined by the prize money on offer, understanding the Class hierarchy within a particular track will go a long way to point you in the direction of potential selections. Ask yourself this; is the quality of the competition in a 2500 race for Non Handicaps at Kempton tougher than or not as tough as a 4000 race for Non Handicap types at Southwell, what kind of field is attracted to smaller prize money races? Especially if some of the runners were previously racing for 6500 prize money races a few months ago.

When horses go up or down in Class they also go in and out of form, as a rule of thumb the higher Class races present the horse with a greater number of potential race rivals. When looking at Class past and present of a potential selection I would suggest you look at how successful the horse has been in the past in relation to todays Class, rather than noting that the horse has ran in this Class but did nothing. If a horse has shown in the past that it can compete in this Class then there is a positive that the horse may repeat that run again today. Look for a horse which has at least placed in todays Class, over similar trip and ground conditions.

Class Act To Follow Continues;

Truly Dropping Back in Class;

For example, lets say Horse A wins and places in four races over Class 4 conditions, one win, one second place and two third places. The trainer then decides to step Horse A up to Class 2 competition where the horse finishes 11th. The trainer then decides to enter the horse in a Class 3 race to hopefully improve the horses chances. The question we now need to ask ourselves is does this mean now that the horse has dropped back in Class? And the answer is this, well no not really. Let me explain, due to the level of the horses success we know his best performances have come at Class 4 where we can expect him to give us a run for our money. His performances at Class 4 are proven; his performances are not proven in Class 2 races where he managed to achieve nothing apart from make up the numbers. He is not even proven at Class 3 where he still might be simply outclassed. Sometimes its difficult to gauge Class levels and the greater numbers of horses you have in the race where the trainer has moved them through this Class shifting process. Its worth paying attention when the more respected and higher percentage 20% plus strike rate trainers move their horses up or down in Class. Again a big drop in Class usually means a drop in confidence or the desire to offload a particular horse; however a step up can indicate the opposite. Dont get this confused with the normal trainer types as this only really applies to the trainers right at the top of their game. By including this point Im by no means trying to confuse you with the step up or drop back in Class overall.

Class Act To Follow Continues;

Point to Ponder;

Having horses that have at least 8 races minimum gives you some history to work with, the more the better. If all the horses in a particular race have a similar level of history then it may be easier to work through the pack. While recent form is important , any horse which has shown itself to have previous Class form must be taken into account and monitored respectively as there is a chance the horse may very well return to its previous racing ability. If the horse was competing successfully 8 months ago then missed the next few months for whatever reason, then came back on its first start only to produce nothing like its past form, this could be seen as expected. It may be that the horse simply needs to attain a certain level of race fitness again to return to its former success despite its disappointing first return run. Remember recent form and past performances need to be taken equally into account and their merits awarded the relevant approval. Finally;

Class Act To Follow Continues;

I would suggest when doing this type of pre race analysis, if 2 or even 3 horses are standing out above the rest of the field and you cannot really separate one horse from another, my advice is to back them all. Now you can play around with the staking here if you wish, but in terms of trying to find the race leaders you should never really have more than 3 outright backing selections in any given race unless the race is a really tight affair in which case it may be wise to avoid such races. Its always better to spread or simply Dutch your bets rather than leave one selection out of the fold only to see him win by a nose. Especially if you are getting started with racing, dutching can be an ideal opportunity for some welcomed early success. You never know you may even find yourself involved with a dead heat. Have A Great Weekend, Ross p.s, I have no idea where this bear race photo was taken and which sick bastard thought this was a good idea, you certainly wouldnt think the Queen would be interested in sitting though the full Race Card. Who knows what the hell is going through the bears mind, If I win this next time its Ascot. Answers in a comment please

 FocusOnFitnessbyRossTurnerDec13

A Ferrari in the showroom cannot out run a Volvo thats on the road. Therefore the search for horses with good speed power and class credentials must be treated by how they appear on form. Instead of simply betting the horses with the lowest form figures, you should start to look for horses that appear to be rounding into condition. Sharp fit horses often out ran their latest form numbers while classy animals whose form was suspect often ran worse than projected. Some consensuses on the characteristics of horses that are considered to be in form are among the positives; The horse finished within five lengths of the winner last time out in its regular class. The horse ran at or near the front of the pack until at least the final furlong, or the horse passed several rivals on the run in. The horse has been working regularly, with no gaps in the fitness lines; this is based on how the horse has been training at its stable. The horse shows no gaps in his racing entries. If he usually races every four weeks, make sure he does not suddenly show an 8 week gap. The horse was overmatched last time out but ran his usually mark. The horse may have ran against better classed opposition, was the horse stepped up in class or was the race a tougher than the usual affair. To be considered to be in form, a horse should have accomplished at least one of these points above. Conversely a horse that has done little but run around in the back of the pack, never really making a move, can generally be quickly dismissed as a contender without a massive drop in class.
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Focus On Fitness Continued;

An exception is a turf horse that got trapped behind a slow pace and came home in his usual quick fashion. Other indicators of possible poor form include the additional of front wraps, a class drop after a win or a double or triple drop after an in the money finish. A switch of stables from a top trainer to a lower grade stable especially if accompanied by a class drop, frequent breaks in both the training and racing patterns a too fat or too skinny appearance on race day and a sudden lack of early speed from a horse who previously was known for quick starts. Fit and race fit, are two completely different things Lets take, boxing for an example, a fighter coming back from an injury or after a fight at a higher level may still be fit in a general but will usually schedule a number of less classy opponents to give him a chance to get his skills and ring fitness back up to scratch, also confidence is a big part of the winning process, it allows a mental edge to develop. Similar in horse racing, from a horses perspective getting its head in front shows a will to compete, dig deep and ultimately win. Its more difficult for a horse to do this against similar class opposition if the horse is just back from a lay off or back from injury. You may also hear about trainers having their horses in for breathing operations, this is quite common and even the mighty Denman, was whisked into the theatre to have a procedure. This is quite standard as far as horse operations go, certainly compared to having a nose job..! Horses use a great deal of stamina, during a race and their muscles require a great deal of fuel and preparation to allow the horse to run to a very high standard. If they are rushed back into the mix to quickly this may actually break them down rather than help them to recover at a steady pace and gain there fitness levels back previously.

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Focus On Fitness Continued;

You may see a horse brought back lightly raced over the next two or three runs to make sure its progression is steady. Dont expect a horse which has been off the course for 6-12 months to suddenly put in a winning performance. Like everything to do with horse racing there are exceptions to the rule, such as jumps or flat specialist horses which are proven to come back strong after a long season layoff, this is usually down to the stable been able to deliver these horses to the track in a top physical condition. It is down to the trainers skill and knowledge of the individual horse they are working with to determine when the horse needs a rest and when it needs another race or two to get back into winning contention. A racehorse is a finely tuned animal, its nature needs to be assessed and its fitness program like any other athlete mapped out and cycled to allow it to peak at the right time for the right race. It cannot achieve constant form figures of first places forever. They will be times when you can clearly see a drop off in form coming or when you notice how a horse has seemed to increase in performance and distance over the same course, distance, against weaker and then stronger competition.

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Focus On Fitness Continued;

Sometimes you will just know, and I realise this sounds slightly mystic ball, however the more your involved with racing the more you have your nose to the ground as it were the more likely you will be to spot opportunities when they arise. Usually these are easier to spot in the bigger meetings and all the top horses have prepared for one particular race and a quick look at recent performances can be a great view point to find a winner. However on a daily or weekly basis there are a number of points which you can easily apply to your form reading capabilities. For now I just want to leave you all with a guide to what to start to look for when making fitness decisions; Check the horses last Race Comments, to see how the horse ran in its last race. Look for comments such as if a horse finished strongly or slowed down 1f from home, if the horse was one paced or chased the leader home. This can be a good indication to whether the horse is running into form, so make sure you check the last race and look for improvements in finishing positions if the horse ran the same class distance, ground conditions as last time. Go back and look through the horses history to see if any patterns seem to match from the previous season. Form figures will give you a good idea as to how the horse performs from race to race after a layoff. Points to consider; Flat Races Winning Percentages. 86 % of horses returning on the flat within a 28 day period won their races. Jumps Races Winning Percentages 73 % of horses returning within a 21 day period won their races. So backing anything returning after 28 days must be treated with caution. Note only ignore these rules when races such as Group 1 & 2 are considered. This is because the top horses and a four week form cycle do not apply. Talk Soon Ross
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PuntertoProfessionalin30DaysbyRossTurnerJan13th

Is one month really long enough to get used to using the FL software? Now Im not just saying this to make sure I get additional months subscription out of new members. Im asking the question which you should be asking yourselves before you actually press the "Add to Cart" button next time around. If anything is worth investing in then surely you need to allow that investment, whether its time, money or skill to develop and then flourish. Of course along the way there will be errors, frustrations, highs and low, and maybe some nail biting thrown in for good measure, but life is not all about the end product its about how we get there. Sometimes you can be so blinded by the end result that you miss the actual ride. Think of it this way, how many driving lessons did you take before you took your Driving Test, 10, 20, 80? you see for some people it may have been a few, for others a lot more. We all are good at certain skills and not so good at others, some men can iron a crisp white shirt, for others it end up looking like an old sock thats been lying at the bottom of the washing basket for a week. The question you need to ask yourself is; are you giving yourself enough practises to pass before you quit? How long did it actually take you to go from Newbie, to Novice to Advanced in your driving career? Im guessing a while. Are you been too hard on yourself when it comes to expecting instant success? Are you blaming other people, the weather, lady luck or the missus? If you already call the missus lady luck then good on ya Either way Im here as youre lets call me your assistant. I dont like the word teacher due to the fact it reminds me of school to much which in turn reminds me of boring lessons of little interest on my part apart from Maths and Art, maybe some English from time to time. I certainly dont mind doing all I can to help guide you along the road to seeing success at the end of it. Unlike some people within this market who keep the mystic ball stashed in a cupboard at the bottom of the stairs carefully wrapped in a Tescos shopping bag. For me if I have extra information which I think might benefit some or all then Im going to share it with you. It does not cost me anything apart from maybe a little time which I could be spending practising ironing my shirts. To actually collect all the information together and make it read able is a small price to pay on my behalf.
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Punter to Professional in 30 Days Continued;

You see Ive been giving a great deal of thought lately to how members use the software and how they consume the information they are presented with, and I think I can improve a great deal of what we are trying to do. By doing this Im sure I can get you to where you want to be in terms of sports betting. How Im going to do this is not important at the moment but rest assured I will do it and soon.

Thinking about how you cans find profitable ways to use the FL Software should be one of your main focuses whether you are successful using it already or not. Identifying areas you are not successful in is of less importance than areas which you are successful in. This may sound a little strange so let me explain. Most footballers have one foot which they either prefer or in most cases can only use. Now what they tend to focus on is making their preferred foot better by practising every day. Now other footballers maybe adept at using both feet, we call these show offs, however just because one foot is better than the other doesnt mean the other is any less important. It also doesnt mean that there is no reason why you cannot practice with the less favoured foot to bring it up to a standard to almost equal your preferred foot.

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Punter to Professional in 30 Days Continued;

For those who think Ive finally lost the plot its really quite simple. Work on bringing you current or favoured method up to scratch, to achieve a higher level of success, refine it, make it greater, then once you succeed in doing this you can work on developing other weaker areas until you have something else in your armoury to fall back on. Once you manage to do the hard work the first time around there is no reason why you cannot do it again and again. Once you get to the stage where you can use both skill sets then youre in a much greater position compared to the average punter out there. FL Created A Form Reading Tool, So Use It I love getting emails from members, especially the ones who ask questions or want to learn more. I must admit within the FL members group we have what I like to call the FL core. Core members are something of a rare bread these days, I hear little from them, they are a small yet solid group, they keep themselves to themselves, but they are always watching, always listening and always up to date. They log into the Software almost every day (and yes I can check) and most of them have been with me for a long time. They understand racing and they know what suits their particular race needs. The reason I mention them is for this reason, I admire them, and the reason is because they help me to understand which direction I need to take in order to protect the needs of current or future members. These core members didnt just wake up one day and start betting at the bookies, actually maybe they did but Im guessing whichever way they got started they did it for one if not two reasons; Reason Number 1: To Win Money. Reason Number 2: For A Love Of Racing. Being passionate about your chosen career, sport or hobby will get you a long way even if youre missing a few key ingredients, mix in some skill and a will to learn and youre certainly on the right path. You see these core members didnt suddenly become advanced bettors, it took them years not weeks or months. I myself am in my 8th year and still learning still developing, looking for new ways to develop my skill set to find other methods within methods to explore what others may have missed. My point is, if youre in racing or any sports betting for the fact you must win money and quickly then please leave now. Its not possible, maybe dropping that extra Christmas weight and becoming a Jockey would suit you best. But if your here to learn and to fine tune your current skill set no matter how little your experience, then you have come to the right place and without a doubt 2011 will be the year you finally get the answers youve been looking for.

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Punter to Professional in 30 Days Continued;

Having the software or any other product for a month and either giving up or simply saying its not working for me sometimes needs to be questioned, is this a true reflection on the product or are you just looking for the next new shiny toy in the box?

Members use the software differently with different results, there are no right or wrong answers, its intended to suit every ones needs, within this flexibility lies its strength. One of the key factors here is that having a tool at your disposal which not only saves time and effort but also shows you the horses with the best ratings figures in a particular race, there past and current patterns, there statistics over filters and conditions has to be looked at in greater detail, first glance simply isnt enough. Start thinking outside the box and great things can happen. Racing is not just about winning and losing, it has to be about so much more. Its just not as clear cut or ready to be defined as two opposite ends of the spectrum. Let me know what you think, Im always happy to hear from you Talk Soon Ross

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 QuickFireWinorLoseRacingGuidebyRossTurnerMar14th

I had an interesting email from a member last week regarding historical data and stats which he uses daily within his betting. He was asking me a few questions over Email regarding different ways in which to use the software. A couple of days later he sent me what he had put together. From time to time he sends me his betting thoughts and a few ideas he is having about racing/systems/strategies. I think he likes to run things by me so I can give my seal of approval, which I certainly dont mind doing as long as I have the free time to do so. Anyway we got chatting and he follows up with types of races and favourite winning percentages in relation to his betting activity. He uses the software ratings to whittle down his selection process by mainly using a table showing past data of races showing favourites, non favourites etc. Depending on the table he would look for laying or backing opportunities within the software. He basically structures his betting to the table and eliminates selections which dont fit the past data. Sound simple enough right? So I asked him if he would mind me sharing his thoughts and finding with the rest of the blog readers and he said of course, but dont mention my name..! Why not Brian, I asked ? he said in case my wife reads it and shell know what Ive been doing, instead of walking her dogs and looking after the mother in law while the wife does nightshift! After laughing out loud I agreed. To be honest he would not be the first member Ive had who hid his betting activity/hobbies from the missus. Live and let live thats my motto, well one of them at least. Ok so lets get into Brians stuff so you can use it possibly to achieve a greater strike rate within your own betting or even to point you in a different direction all together, who knows, but its certainly something you should be considering if youre not already doing so.

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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide Continued;

RacesTypesTheGoodtheBad&theUgly

Our greatest asset apart from having software do much of the grunt work for us is our betting bank. The way we use it and protect it is vital as without great care and attention our betting activities will simply cease. So how do we go about doing such a thing, well firstly you must ensure that you use every percentage of your bank in an effective professional manner and dont abuse it. One way of protecting your bank is to carefully select the races that you are involved with, whether that is on a daily or weekly basis. As anyone who has tried his/her hand in horse racing the first thing you notice is the huge amount of variables associated with a horse. Examples of these variables can range from, recent form, past form, ground conditions, distance, course, jockey and trainer stats, the list goes on. Some variables have a greater influence on the outcome of a race whereas other variables have far less of an effect. If we look at three variables in particular, these variables are found to have a relatively greater influence on the outcome of a horse race within a race. Race Type; That The Horse Is Competing Within. Number of Runners Within The Race. Odds Of The Selection. Let look at and consider the types of races and the number of runners/odds of the selection. As a general rule of thumb on average only 35% of favourites win their races. There are certain types of races in which favourites perform much better. There are also certain types of races in which they tend to perform far worse. By using this type of information we can point towards the right direction as to which race types are more beneficial to the type of betting you are involved with, whether its Backing, Laying or Dutching etc.

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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide Continued;

The chart below shows the strike rate of favourites in various race types:

As you can see by the chart the types of races with have an above average favourite strike rate (35%) are shown in the last third of the chart in silver. The above table results relate to races which were run in the UK between 1991 and March 2008. Ok so we now have some additional data so how do we make the best use of it..? Well, that depends on what you are trying to achieve. If a selection system identifies favourites which are to be backed to win, we should concentrate on those selections that are running in race types which are shown in (Silver) since their strike rates are above the average (35%).

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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide Continued;

This provides our selections with the best winning opportunities. Those types of races which are elsewhere on the chart should be avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in these types of races, are below the average for winning favourites. This provides our selections with the worst winning opportunities statistically.

Ifyouareworkingwithaselectionsystemwhichidentifiesnonfavouriteswhicharetobe backedtowin,thereforeopposingfavouritesyoushouldconcentrateonthoseselections thatarerunninginracetypeswhichareshowninblueuptoandincludingNationalHunt Flat,asthegraphclearlyshowsfavouriteswhichrunisthesetypesofraceshavestrikerates thatarebelowtheaverage(35%).

Simply put this means that race favourites are more unlikely to win. This provides nonfavourites with the best winning opportunities. Those types of races which are shown in Silver are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in those types of races, are above the average. This provides nonfavourites with the worst winning opportunities.

Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesfavouriteswhicharetobelayedtolose,weshould concentrateonthoseselectionsthatarerunninginracetypeswhichareshowninbluesince theirstrikeratesarebelowtheaverage(35%).

This provides selections with the best losing opportunities. Those types of races which are shown in Silver are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in those types of races, are significantly higher than normal. This provides non-favourites with the worst losing opportunities.

Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesnonfavouriteswhicharetobelayedtolose,weshould concentrateonthoseselectionsthatarerunninginracetypeswhichareshowninSilver sincethestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninthosetypesofracesareabovetheaverage (35%).

This provides non-favourites with the best losing opportunities. Those types of races which are shown in blue type are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in those types of races, are below the average. This provides non-favourites with the best winning opportunities and hence, the worst losing opportunities.

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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide Continued;

To clear up any possible confusion regarding the above backing or laying favourites or non favourites, below you will find a very helpful table which you can use easily to spot potential back or lay opportunities within any race type you may currently be looking into. All you need to do when using the table below is to select the type of race your selection is running in, then chose between the back or lay, favourite or non favourite. If the selected element of the table contains a (Yes), then the bet has a better than average chance of succeeding (winning). If the selected element of the table contains a No, then the bet has a worse than average chance of succeeding (losing) and is best avoided. For Example; Lets suppose that a selection system that identifies horses that are to be backed to win has identified the favourite in a Novice Chase. From the table, we can see that, if we look along the (Novice Chase) row and look at the table element under the (Back Favourite) column, it contains a (Yes). Therefore, the bet stands a better than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we take a look at the first graph in this post, we will see that the strike rate of favourites in Novice Chase races is 48%. Another Example; Lets suppose that a laying selection system has identified a non-favourite in a Selling Handicap. From the table below, it can be seen that, if we look along the (Selling Handicap) row and look at the table element under the (Lay Non-Favourite) column, it contains a (No). Therefore, our bet stands a worse than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we take a look at the first graph in this post, you can see that the strike rate of favourites running in Selling Handicaps is only 22%. Therefore, it is highly likely that the favourite will lose and that a non-favourite will win the race. Therefore, the selection is best avoided in this particular case.

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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide Continued;

Type of Races -Selection Back/Lay

Making use of the above table will not guarantee success. However, there is every chance that the strike rate of any system you are using will be improved. You could use these graphs and tables as an added filter to your selection process or as a final check before placing any bets. Number of Runners; As discussed earlier, our greatest asset is our betting bank. It should therefore be used in the most effective and efficient manner possible. One way of ensuring this is to carefully select the races that you are involved with, particularly with regard to the number of runners in the race. Although, on average, only 35% of favourites win their races, the fewer runners that there are in a race, the more likely it is that the favourite will win.

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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide Continued;

The chart below shows the strike rate of favourites by number of runners in the race:

The above table relates to races ran in the UK between 1991 and March 2008. Ok so although we now have this additional data, how can we make the best use of it? Well, that depends on what we are actually trying to achieve.

Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesfavouriteswhicharetobebackedtowin,weshould concentrateonthosethatarerunninginraceswithlessthaneightrunners.Thestrikerates offavouriteswhichruninsuchracesareabovetheaverage(35%).Thisprovidesfavourites withthebestwinningopportunities.

Those field sizes which are shown at the top of the chart are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in such races, are below the average (35%). This provides favourites with the worst winning opportunities.
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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide Continued;

Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesnonfavouriteswhicharetobebackedtowin,weshould concentrateonthosethatarerunninginraceswhichareshowingbelowtheaveragesince thestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninsuchracesarebelowtheaverage(35%).This providesnonfavouriteswiththebestwinningopportunities.

Those field sizes which are showing above 35 % are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in such races, are above the average. This provides non-favourites with the worst winning opportunities.

Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesfavouriteswhicharetobelayedtolose,weshould concentrateonthosethatarerunninginfieldsizeswhichareshownlargerthan1011 runnerssincethestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninsuchracesarebelowtheaverage (35%).Thisprovidesfavouriteswiththebestlosingopportunities.

Those field sizes which are shown from 6-7, 2-5 are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in such races, are above the norm. This provides non-favourites with the worst losing opportunities.

Ifaselectionsystemidentifiesnonfavouriteswhicharetobelayedtolose,weshould concentrateonthosethatarerunninginfieldsizeswhichareshowninabovethe35%type sincethestrikeratesoffavouriteswhichruninsuchracesareabovetheaverage.This providesnonfavouriteswiththebestlosingopportunities.

Those types of races which are shown above the average (35%) bar are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in such races, are below the average. This provides nonfavourites with the worst losing opportunities. If all this seems slightly confusing then dont worry, we have created yet another table below which shows exactly which races you should avoid. Simply identify the number of runners in the race that the selection is running in and select the appropriate row from the table Now, look along the four remaining columns to the one that best describes the type of bet that you intend to place (back/lay) and the type of horse that you intend your bet to apply to (favourite or non-favourite). If the selected element of the table contains a (Yes) then the bet has a better than average chance of succeeding. If the selected element of the table contains a (No), then the bet has a worse than average chance of succeeding and is best avoided.

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Quick Fire Win or Lose Racing Guide Continued;

For Example; Lets suppose that our backing selection system has identified the favourite in a race containing seven runners. From the table, we can see that, if we look along the (6 7) row of the table element under the (Back Favourite) column, it contains a (Yes). Therefore, our bet stands a better than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we take a look at the above table in this, we will see that the strike rate of favourites in races that contain between six and seven runners is 40%. Example 2; Lets suppose that our laying system has identified a non-favourite in a race containing 11 runners. From the table, we can see that, if we look along the (10 11) row and look at the table element under the (Lay Non-Favourite) column, it contains a (No). Therefore, our bet stands a worse than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we look at the chart above, we will see that the strike rate of favourites in races that contain between 10 and 11 runners is only 33%. Therefore, it is highly likely that a non-favourite will win the race. Therefore, the selection is best avoided in this case.

Using historical data like these charts has its place within any system due to the fact that within horse racing past form, results and stats do constantly overlap and repeat themselves from year to year. I hope you can find some additional benefit from the charts and tables provided. Remember making use of them will not guarantee success, however there is every chance that the strike rate of any system you may be using will be improved greatly. Talk Soon Ross

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Betting Advantage
Containedwithinthischapterareanumberofareaswhichmayseemalittlebasic,howeverbeyond anydoubtyoucanbeassuredtheyareimportant.Thenextfewparagraphsmaybesomeofthemost importantyouwilleverreadconcerninggambling.Theideathatanyonewithlittleornoknowledge cansuddenlymakealivingfromgamblingisafable. Likeanyotherprofessionunlessyouhavethetoolsforthejoborthe,knowhow,howelsedoyou expecttosucceed.Youmightbeabletomuddlethroughratherblindlyforawhile,butitwillonlybe amatteroftimebeforeyoubecomeunstuck,howmuchdependsonyou. BeforeIgiveyousomepointersonselectingalosinghorse,letmeaskyouthisquestion. Haveyoueverconsideredhavingagameplanforyourbettingstrategies?Itsfineifyouhavenever consideredagameplan,aslongasyouhaventplacedanybetsyet.Iftheanswersyesthenreading onmayaidyouincompilingyourplanofattackandalsohelpyoutoexecuteyourstrategy.If Youreanswerisnothenletsbegin.

Planning;
Peopleingeneraldonthaveagoodplan.Assimpleasthisseemsmostwillignoreplanningandlook aheadtohowtheyintendtospendtheirwinnings.Thisisthefirstmistake.Nothavingaplanislike buildingahousewithoutthearchitectsblueprint.Yousimplywontknowwheretostartandwhen tostop.Withoutanydoubt,havingagoodplanisthebasisofallsuccessfulventures. Inlayinghorsesagoodplanmeansknowingtheamountofmoneyyouwouldliketomakeovera periodoftime,whetherthatisdaily,weeklyormonthlyisdependentonyourownrequirements.A comprehensiveplanshouldincludetheexactstepsneededtoachieveyourgoalwithouttakinghuge risks.Insimpletermswantingtomakemoneyfromgamblingwithoutaplanislikestartingona journeywithoutactuallyknowingwhereyouwouldliketogo.

Ground Conditions;
Everythingelsebeenequalgroundconditionisthesinglemostinfluencingfactortoeffectthe outcomeofarace.Mosthorsesfinditverydifficulttocopewithsoftergroundespeciallywhenthey havebeencontinuallyracingonfirmgroundforseveralmonths.Staminaplaysanenormouspart whenthegroundsoftenandwhenthegroundbecomesheavyanythingcanhappen.Course conditionsclassedassoftarenotamajorproblembutaheavytracknotoriouslycontributesto upsettingresults. Animportantfactortokeepinmindisthateventhoughacoursecouldbedescribedassoftearlyin themorning;itdoesnotmeanthatthesameconditionswillexisttowardstheendoftheraceday. Afterseveralraceshavebeenrunthecourseconditioncouldeasilychange. 27

Betting Advantage Patience;

Nothavingenoughpatience.Nowthistopicwillbecompletelyrelevanttoatleast70%0fpeople readingthisbook.Thereasonsforthisaresimple;peoplelivebusylivesthesedays.Everythingisso fastpacedthatsometimesyoujustcantaffordtobepatient.Howeverwithgamblingtheworse mostsouldestroyingthingyoucoulddoisletyourimpatientnaturegetthebetterofyou. Peoplewantandexpecttomaketoomuch,tooquickly.Beingtotallyunrealisticwiththe expectationsontheirreturnstheygambleontoomanyhorsespayinghighliabilitiesandwhenthat rankoutsiderfinallywins,disaster. Theyalsospendtheirhardearnedmoneyonlucrativebutweaksystemsbasedonpoorquality informationorsillybeliefs.Turningaworkingbankof20.00into1,000ormoreinjustoneweekis unrealisticandextremelydifficulttoachieve.Yesweallwanttogetrichquick,noonewantstowait forever,butbeingrealisticplaysamassivepartbetweenachievingthatgoalandfailing.

Form;
Formisahorsespastperformance.Asimportantasformistopickingwinninghorses,itisnot importantenoughtobesolelyreliedontodeterminetheoutcomeofarace.Insayingthat,the bettingpublicusuallyreliesonlyonformtohelpselectwinners;theresultisalossofmoney.Very fewhorsescanbereliedonsolelybasedontheconsistencyofitswinsthroughoutitscareer. Justlikehumans,horsesalsohavealifecycle.Ifformwereaclearguidetopickinglosing/winning horseseverybodywouldbedoingit.Itsnotthateasy!Horsesareanimalsunlesssomeofyou actuallythoughtheyweremachines,theyarepronetomakingmistakes,runningabadrace,peaking tosoonornotpeakingatall.

Consistency is the Key;

Notbeingconsistentenough.Evenwhenanunprofitablepunterfinallyfindsahighlyprofitable system,heorshegenerallystopsusingitafterafewloses.Whattheyfailtorealizeisthatevery systemhaslosingruns.Thesearesimplyasmallnumberoflossesinarow.Successfulpuntersknow thattheselosingrunsarenottobetakenseriouslyandtheyarejustpartofmakingmoneyfrom gambling.Thereallysadfactisthatattheendofmostlosingrunsarelongandhighlyprofitable winningstreaks.Unfortunatelylosingpuntersusuallyquitjustbeforepayday,nevergettingthe chanceofexperiencingthejoyofmakingaconsistentprofitfromgambling.Thissimplyleadsthem backtotheiroldrecklesshabits,someofwhichcouldendtheregamblingcareerindefinitely.

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Betting Advantage

Distance;
Justlikeathletes,horsesdonotadaptwelltosuddendistancechanges.Whenahorsetrainsforand winsa16furlongrace,itwillhaveconsiderabledifficultiesrunningitsnextraceover10furlongsand winningit.Whythishappenscannotfullybeexplainedherebutitsabilitytoaffecttheoutcomeof aracecantbestressedenough.Usuallyahorserunningwelloveracertaindistanceatitslastrace willnottakeareductionindistanceofmorethan1.5furlongstoowell. Ontheotherhandanincreaseindistanceofupto2.5furlongscouldbetotallyharmless.Ihaveseen countlessraceswherethefavouritehaslosttheracesolelyduetothesignificantdecreasein distancefromitslaststart.Someracingpunditsclaimthatagoodhorseshouldbeabletobounce betweenthedifferentdistances.Whatthesesocalledracingpunditshavenotseenisthefatalities suchunproventheorieshavebeencausingatthecourse!

Weight;
Extraweightisaddedtohorsesinafieldtomakethefieldconsistentsothatallhorseshavesimilar chancesofwinningtherace.Althoughnotthebestwayofmakingafieldeveninstrength,the practiceiswidelyusedandthereforecannotbeignored.Igenerallydonotconsiderasmallamount ofaddedweightathreattoahorsesperformance. However,ifyouselectahorsethatisatthetopoftheweightlisttolosethenyoudohavetolookat thingsabitdifferently.IfitissignificantlyheavierthanthenextheaviesthorseIwouldseriously considerlayingsuchaprospect.Ontheotherhandifthehorseyouhaveselectedtoloseislighter thanmostofitsopponentsthatareofsimilarstrengththenyourpickcouldbeatanadvantage.The bestscenarioforpickingalosinghorsebyitsweightisselectingahorsethatisatthesameweightor heavierthanitsrivalsandisofsimilarstrengthplusitiscarryingmoreweightinthisracewhen comparedtoitslaststart.

Discipline;
Notbeingdisciplinedenough.Gamblingwithagoodplan,havinglotsofpatience,beingconsistent andnotbeinggreedyareallnotworthapennyunlessyoucanfollowthemstrictly.Agoodsystem wouldhaveitsownclearlydefinedsetofrules.Thismakesthesystemfullyautomatedenablingthe selectionoflosing/winninghorseswithoutanyhumandecisionatall.Anastutepunterknowsthe importanceofhavingrulesandstickstothem.Thelawisquitesimple:Ifsomethingworks,donot changeit!Yourmainobjectiveshouldbetomakeconsistentprofitsusingtherulesoutlinedinasolid layingmethod. 29

Summary

I hope you have enjoyed not only reading these blog posts but also that you have managed to take a few notes here and there and also focus on what skills suit your type of betting the most while helping to eliminate any errors you may make from time to time. The important qualities needed to be successful in gambling may seem quite straight forward, and you know what! They are. Its just a case of developing your own skills through practise and putting the quality back into you gambling until these new found techniques become a habit. Some of you may or may not have all of these qualities Ive mentioned above within you. If you dont, do not panic! With time and patience, you too can master the art of successful gambling. It really is your choice. The only thing that is standing between you and your ability to make money from gambling is your skills, which even after this chapter has already been improved:

Talk Soon Ross Turner FL Horse Racing Software

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