Trends

A broken thermostat
Have you ever thought of taking a vacation to the sandy shores of the Arctic Ocean for
sunbathing and swimming? About 55 million years ago, during a period called the “Late
Paleocene Thermal Maximum” (LPTM), you would have enjoyed warm 73 degree Arctic Ocean
water temperatures. During this time, tropical regions were only modestly warmer than
today, but tropical and subtropical conditions extended much farther toward the polar regions
than today. This extreme warm spell lasted around 100,000 years, and was a high point in earth’s
continuous roller coaster of climate swings. It was followed by a slow, irregular worldwide
cooling trend that has continued into the current cycles of long ice ages and much shorter
interglacial warm periods. We have been in one of the interglacial warm periods for the past
10,000 years.
Several explanations for this LPTM event have been proposed. The most popular theory
is that major releases of methane progressively heated up the earth over a period of 1,000 years.
Methane is a greenhouse gas that is from 20 to 70 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
Normally, methane breaks down into carbon dioxide and water vapor over a few years, keeping
atmospheric levels of methane very low. In contrast, vast resources of methane exist in the
sediments underlying our oceans, along continental slopes, and in some deep basins, such as the
Gulf of Mexico, in the form of a waxy solid called “methane hydrate”. If methane hydrate is
warmed or experiences a decrease in water pressure, it releases much of its contained methane as
gas. Several researchers have postulated that a major release of methane from these hydrates
triggered the LPTM warming. They suggest that, if very large amounts of methane were released
into the atmosphere, the processes that normally remove the methane could have been
overwhelmed, and it could have taken up to 100,000 years to reduce the methane back to normal
levels. As alternative causes for the LPTM warming, others have suggested release of carbon
dioxide from major volcanic eruptions, releases of methane from large bogs in Britain, and from
a combination of these and other sources.
Once scientists discovered the LPTM event, researchers started looking for other abrupt
warming events that may have been similar. Several similar events have now been proposed. The
earth appears to have experienced at least several of these very strong warming events, plus
perhaps many more short-duration abrupt warming events. In the Cretaceous Period, from 145
million to 65 million years ago in the age of dinosaurs, one particularly strong warming cycle
apparently raised south polar ocean temperatures to as high as 90 degrees.
Similarly, the earth has experienced strong cooling events, and recent research suggests
that periods of strong global cooling with formation of glaciers also have been more common
than previously thought, even in the middle of overall very warm periods during which polar
regions grew forests instead of ice.
If you’re sweating at the thought of 90-degree polar waters, a controversial theory could
cool you off. The theory, called “snowball earth,” proposes that the earth’s oceans have
periodically frozen over completely between periods of thaw. These snowball earth episodes are
postulated to have occurred from 750 to 580 million years ago. This theory gained popularity
over the past decade based on review of certain geological records. This theory also instigated
detailed reviews of the geologic record to prove or disprove the idea. The new information
suggests to many researchers that “snowball earth” should be renamed “slush ball earth.” New
information suggests that the oceans during this time never completely froze over, and that these
deep freeze cycles were interrupted periodically by warm cycles.
 New, more detailed information suggests that the very warm Cretaceous
Period had its icy times and the very cold “slush ball earth” had its warm periods. It appears that
the more detailed the information we have about past climates, the more evidence we have for
major short-term and long-term wild climate swings. The reasons for these swings appear to be
diverse. Changes in the earth’s atmosphere, e.g., increasing greenhouse gases, are only one
realm of projected causes. Strong evidence also suggests that changes in the tilt of the earth’s
axis and variations in the earth’s orbit around the sun also are major factors. These changes in
the earth’s tilt and orbit have been tied to control of ice ages and interglacial periods. Changes in
the sun’s energy output, in both short-term fluctuations and long-term changes, also may be
important. For example, during the “slush ball earth” period 700,000 years ago, the sunlight
earth received was six percent weaker than today. Short-term changes in solar output have been
postulated as causes for historically warm periods like the medieval warm period (800 to
1300 A.D.), and for the subsequent “Little Ice Age” (about 1650 to 1850 A.D.). Fluctuations
in solar energy have also recently been linked to climate in an interesting way. Several
researchers have linked periods of reduced solar energy to an increase in cosmic rays reaching
our atmosphere. The researchers also have found that an increase in cosmic rays creates an
increase in clouds, which cools the earth, further confusing the cause and effect of our climate.
We are currently in a period of very strong solar energy, which may be adding to man-caused
global warming. This strong solar energy cycle is projected to begin to diminish in a few
years.
What about the future? We all know that human-produced gases and activities influence
the earth’s climate. The severity and nature of those changes are the subject of much debate, and
the consequences could be very important to us.
Our activities aside, all the climate controls that existed before man appeared are still
working. When we’ve used up our carbon dioxide-emitting fossil fuels, those natural controls
will still be working. We can expect our roller coaster climate swings to continue. So what
should we expect over the coming centuries and millennia? During the past 3.5 million years, the
earth has been cooling, with progressively colder long ice ages and cooler short interglacial
periods. Based on our understanding of interglacial periods, we are near the end of our current
warm spell. It’s almost certain that the next ice age is waiting for us after we’ve had our
unintentional fling at heating the planet.
By about 500 million years in the future, however, some researchers predict that most of
the supply of carbon dioxide available to the atmosphere will become locked up in rocks, causing
most plant and animal life to perish. As part of this process, the lack of greenhouse carbon
dioxide could drop the planet into a deep freeze. Don’t worry about a permanent deep freeze.
The ever-warming sun will heat the earth to a point where all ice will melt, the oceans will
evaporate, and most of the surviving life will cook—perhaps in about 1.5 billion years. I
personally don’t plan on attending either the freeze or the cook-off.
Rauno Perttu .
jrperttu@charter.net