Deposit Mobilization
Deposit Mobilization
Deposit Mobilization
2nd February, 2013 Sheikh Tanzila Deepty Assistant Professor, Department of Finance, Faculty of Business Administration, University of Dhaka.
Dear Madam, We are the students of BBA (15th Batch, Section-B), Department of Finance, University of Dhaka. With humble respect I would like to convey you the matter that we have prepared our report for our course F-409 titled Real Estate Finance under your kind supervision. We have tried our best to prepare the report in consistence with the optimal standard under your valuable direction. We tried heart and soul to make this report as a complete one. It would be pleasure for us if this report can serve its purpose.
Thank you for your concrete knowledge about the subject matter that helped us to lead the term paper to its successful completion.
We would like to place this term paper for your evaluation & recommendation.
Sincerely yours, Group No: 15 B.B.A. (15th Batch) Section: B Department of Finance University of Dhaka
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Acknowledgement
The term paper entitled Factors Affect the Development of Real Estate Market of Bangladesh is scheduled for us. We are very grateful to our course teacher, Sheikh Tanzila Deepty, lecturer, Dept. of Finance, University of Dhaka, who gave us the opportunity to get knowledge.
Real estate finance is an ever-changing eclectic science. Research is essential part of business. It is not possible for a student of BBA to have the quality only going through the text without knowing how could he/ she relate his/ her earned knowledge in the practical field, how could he cope with the situation?
With a background of Finance we would not able to learn only professional insights, but we have learned how to prepare term paper and conduct research practically. Our honorable course teacher has helped us a lot, though he had scarcity of time. He gave us the guideline how to frame the total term paper. We have so far tried our best to present the paper according to the instruction of our honorable teacher. We have tried to quote the information in the approved manner by our best effort. But still there might be mistakes. We urge to our admirable course teacher to see the faults in exonerate-eye.
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Executive Summary
Serving the fundamental right of people real estate housing sector is playing a vital role in the context of the economy of Bangladesh. Apart from providing physical shelter, housing may have significant impact on the lives of the dwellers in terms of skills enhancement, income generation, increased security, health, self-confidence and human dignity. Bangladesh, like many other developing countries, faces an acute shortage of affordable housing both in the urban and rural areas. Moreover, housing affordability is being eroded by poor land administration policies, which have resulted in very high land prices that make urban housing prohibitive for lowerincome groups. Also, there is no active secondary market for real estate, mainly because of the high transfer taxes and an uninterrupted long-term increase in land prices. In spite of all these, this sector has experienced considerable growth in past few decades. With a rising population and increasing housing demand, apartment culture has grown up in Dhaka sharply. Apartments were first introduced by the formal private developers in early 80s to the housing history of Dhaka. It first appeared in Dhaka near Central Road and subsequently the city experienced a boom in apartment development in all residential areas. During the last decade, the total volume of Real Estate, Renting and Business service sector increased every year which implies a positive growth in the sector every year. Land prices skyrocketed. Due to high price, insufficiency of land, high cost of land registration, and high price of building materials, people are now not interested to buy a land for building their own house. This article shows the customer perception and expectation in different dimensions budget, types of apartment, size of apartment, favorable location in Chittagong city, favorable facility in an apartment, factors related to purchase decision, factors in selecting developer company, how customers determine about quality, company brand selection, desired services from a particular company, preference between apartment and land, the risk factors perceived by the customers. In line with the demand, the prices of real estate properties are also rising very fast. Price hike of land and construction materials also add to the overall price hike. Increased land price have a direct impact on apartment price. Due to such unimaginable increase in land price as well as sharp increase in prices of the construction materials price increase of apartments became an obvious consequence. In past few years, but the usage of black or undocumented money in the Real Estate sector cannot be measured precisely because no authentic information is available anywhere. Apart from such undocumented money, foreign remittance is a prominent source of fund to purchase any real estate property along with personal and family savings, and bank loan. Thus real estate sector is also contributing a lot in the overall economy of Bangladesh.
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Chapter 1 Introduction
Origin
This is the report which we have tried to prepare properly and accurately to fulfill the requirement of the course F-409: Real Estate Finance. This following report has been assigned to us by our course teacher Sheikh Tanzila Deepty. We have worked on Factors Affect the development of Real Estate Market of Bangladesh where we had the opportunity to see and learn new things about how Factors Affect the development of Real Estate Market of Bangladesh. This report reflects about my in-depth understanding about the various aspects of Factors Affect the development of Real Estate Market of Bangladesh in Bangladesh.
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Methodology
Our whole report preparation was on a systematic way and method. For our report we have to collect both the raw data and secondary source data. We collected our data from Bangladesh Bank, Bangladesh Statistical Bureau, CAB, REHAB, BHBFC, DBH, IDLC, NHFI etc. Data has also been collected from annual rental market report and direct interviews with real estate developers & households and related personnel with questionnaire. The report will be completed within a reasonable time and must before the submission deadline of internship report. The instruction from internship supervisor guides us to complete the report. To run the multiple regression models we use annual housing prices as the dependent variable and gross fixed capital for construction of residential building, cement price, volume of building production in BD as independent variables.
The data will be collected from primary and secondary sources. So any inconsistency in collected data may decrease the quality of the report. Time constraint may deter to analyze all aspects of the corporate governance. Lack of experience acted as constrains in the way of meticulous exploration on the topics.
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1. Alamgir, Safius Sami (International Review of Business Research Papers Vol.7. No. 2. March 2011. Pp. 69-90), A Relational Study on ServiceClimate, Supportive Management, Work Effort, Job Satisfaction and Employee Service Quality in the Context of Real Estate Sector of Bangladesh. 2. Marja C. Hoek-smit (December-1998), Housing finance in Bangladesh.Improving Access to housing finance by middle and lower incomegroup. 3. Islam, Md. Tarikul (April 2008) Real Estate Market in Bangladesh:Development and Current Practice 4. Comprehensive Study On The Real Estate Sector Of Bangladesh, REHAB 5. Gross Capital Formation, Derek Blades, ADB Consultant,AIT 15-17 February 2005 6. IDLC, Research Report on Cement Sector of BD-Initiation, April 05,2011
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3.1
The urbanization of Bangladesh is quite similar to that in Latin America; formerly called over urbanization in 1950s, this is a situation where a rapid rate of urbanization does not lead to corresponding growth in industry and economy but results in a shift of people from low productivity rural agricultural employment to low-productivity urban employment or underemployment. The major cities of Bangladesh exhibits the clearest symptoms of over urbanization, where an imbalance between rapid population growth and insufficient employment opportunities led to an increase in poverty and the mushrooming of slum and squatter settlements (Valla dares, 2002).In Bangladesh, the problem of urbanization is further aggravated by limited land supply in urban areas, lower land utilization and the lack of proper planning and land use policy. Due to globalization, the urbanization process is also increased. The ever-increasing urban population is creating an increasing demand for shelter. Article 25 of the United Nations Universal Declaration on Human Rights (1948-1998) has clearly stated that: Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate of the health and well-being of himself and of his family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care and necessary social services, and the right of security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond his control.(UNO, 1948)Bangladesh has one of the lowest land-person ratios in the world. The situation is further aggravated every year through an irrevocable reduction of per capita share of land for housing, as a result of continuing population growth. Acknowledging the importance of housing, which is one of the five basis needs incorporated in the constitution of Bangladesh, the government is compelled constitutionally to play a vital role in securing housing rights. The constitution of the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh states in Articles 15(a) that: It shall be a fundamental responsibility of the State to attain, through planned economic growth, a constant increase of productive forces and a steady improvement in the material and cultural standard of living of the people, with a view to securing
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to its citizens--the provision of the basic necessities of life, including food, clothing, shelter, education and medical care From the above statement it is quite clear that providing shelter to all the people is one of the fundamental responsibilities of sate. But being a government of a poor developing country, it is almost impossible for the government to ensure housing for all. As the public sector failed to provide this, people have taken their own initiative to ensure their fundamental need for shelter. Government alone cannot provide housing to all and realizing this, they decided to share the task of providing safe decent places to live with Real Estate Developers, to make people a productive resource. As a significant development in the housing question has been the adoption of the National Housing Policy (NHP) in 1993 (amended in1997). The basic principle of the 1993 NHP is that the government would play the role of an enabler of facilitator in the housing sector (Article 4.2)and not the role of a developer of provider. So the government of the peoples republic of Bangladesh is somehow patronizing the real estate developers to contribute in the housing sector of Bangladesh. Statistics show that Bangladesh will need to construct approximately 4million new houses annually over the next twenty years to meet the future demand of housing. Estimates for annual requirements for housing in urban areas vary from 0.3 to 0.55 million units. The share of urban population in Asia is 39 percent at present and is projected to be 45percent by 2015. In Bangladesh, 25 percent of the population (some 35million people) now lives in urban areas; this proportion will be 34 percent(75 million) by 2015. Dhaka with a total population of more than 10 million is now the 22nd largest city in the world. While comparing the growth of the real estate and housing and the construction sector with that of GDP, trend growth in the two sectors for the period 1992-2002 was 4.8 and 7.5percent respectively, this is much higher than the trend growth in GDP of 4.6 % for that period. The shares of the real estate and housing sector and the construction sector in the GDP were quite high in the year 2002 and accounted for 8.3 and 8.0% respectively. However, the incremental contributions of these two sectors in the same year were also considerably high at 6.0 and 12.8 % respectively (CPD 2003). The Current trend of urban growth in Bangladesh is about 6-7% per annum. At present 29% of Bangladeshs population live in urban areas, which will be 34% by the year 2025. (REHAB). Considering this situation in this report is to identify the role of Real Estate Entrepreneurs in providing the housing facilities for the growing urban population and how these are influencing the growth pattern of the city and its sustain ability to the trade.
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400 2000 8000 14000 1.5 million [Source: REHAB, real estate sector at a glance]
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3.2
Still the real estate sector is one of the most attractive sectors for the investor for its high profitability. Gross margin in this sector was as high as 30% - 40% in 1999 (Aims, 1999). In REHAB Fair 2005 the member organizations state that they are now are earning on an average at 10-15% as the market has become highly competitive. But with the increase of number of players in the market this profitability has decreased. REHAB registered only 11 members at the time of its inception where now it has more than 450 members. Besides, there are more than 350 independent developers who are not the members of REHAB. In the last 5 years the number of market players has increased rapidly. According to REHAB real estate sector still has good profitability and it is expected to exist until 2010.
Major Players
Historically major market players in the Bangladesh real estate market have been Eastern Housing Limited, Shinepukur Holdings Limited, Bashundhara, BTI, Concord, and Sheltech. Their market shares have not been changed much during the last years. Eastern Housing occupies 35% and Shinepukur has 35% as the two major market leaders. The other companies absorb the rest 30% of the real estate market. Eastern Housing has been earning on an average of Tk. 62 million approximately with net turnover of around Tk. 450 million. Shinepukur is earning in an average Tk. 41 million with turnover of around Tk. 337 million. As this data shows the status of around a decade back period, a detailed survey is badly needed to examine the profitability of this sector. Therefore a recent statistics could not be generated and with expectations of fresh interesting insights, this issue may be a further research area.
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DIFFERENT CUSTOMER TARGET SEGMENT : The market of real estate business sector is highly
segmented. This segmentation is mainly based on the location, price of the land, and size of the apartments. The segmented areas are: a) Segmentation - Upper Class: Baridhara, Gulshan, Banani, b) Segmentation - Upper Middle Class :Dhanmondi, DOHS, Uttara c) Segmentation - Middle Class : Segunbagicha, Shantinagar, Kakrail, Malibagh, Kalabagan d) Segmentation - Lower middle Class : Mirpur E) Segmentation - For Office Building : Motijheel, Dilkusha, Fakirapool DIT Extension Road, RK Mission Road, Shahidbagh, Kawran Bazar, Pantha Path etc
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During 90s companies move the apartment for specific strategic groups. As Like Advanced Development Technologies ltd.s target market segment was basically upper & upper middle class family. So during 90 ADTLs most of the real estate constriction was situated in Gulshan , Banani, and Uttara & Dhanmondi. But in recent time as too many companies entered into the industry, to companies strategy of different market segment has been blurred. Now all the different market segment companies are trying to penetrating to the other segment. As like recently for the first time ADTL has taken project in Baily Road. Again as the companies recognize the demand of leading group middle income people, most of the companies are now targeting those customer segments.
P RICE DIFFERENTIATION : The sale price of new residential real estate varies per neighborhood
and depends mostly on construction quality and land prices. REHAB made the following estimates: Sale Prices Of Real Estate High Income Areas Such As Gulshen, Benani Middle Income Areas Such As Dhanmondi Other Dhaka Neighborhoods Smaller Lower Middle Income Pockets In Other Areas Per Sq.Ft Tk.2400 To 3400/ Sq.Ft Tk.2000 To 2400/ Sq.Ft Tk.1850 To 2000/ Sq.Ft Tk.1500 To 1600/ Sq. Ft
BRAND IMAGE & E XPERIENCE : Brand image have a moderate impact over the competition within the companies. But it is not just brand image that will give you a sustained competitive advantage. For example, once upon a time Eastern housing, BTI had a high brand image. But now they are facing a strong competition from other new entrant companies. There may be some importance of Brand image, as for well known, customer can easily rely on the companies, and their most priority is product quality & price. For example Asset Development Company does not have the brand image, but they become one of the most successful companies as for their quality work, customer commitment and huge profile marketing. So brand image is a important factor, but one company cannot continue to have sales only for brand image.
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commercialization, not many people want to go to the hassle process self construction. As it is more costly , it is also most of the time found that there is an in-efficient use of resources. So ultimately in there is a low threat of substitute of self construction in Dhaka city.
RENT HOUSING is not an ultimate solution & a perfect substation of apartment. Now a day for
purchasing the apartment home loan is available, so instead of providing monthly rent one can be owner of a apartment by depositing the install payment to the banks. So we can measure that this business has lowest possible threat from the substitute.
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3.3
Regulatory Environment
Planned development is foremost important for a sustainable better living environment. Introduction of this planned development is guided through a master plan prepared by the public authority within a regulatory framework. Bangladesh is also practicing the method of planned development through master planning activities. There are limited rules and regulations on the preparation and execution of the master plan. Some of the regulations are outdated and inconsistent with the present development activities. Planned development should be confirmed with the establishment of guided regulations of the preparation and execution of the master plan. But, in Bangladesh, regulations on the master plan (both preparation and execution) are outdated, irrelevant and somewhere unpredictable. These are the major drawbacks of the planned development guided through the master plan. Before 2004 there were no mandatory building regulations or laws in Bangladesh. There is Bangladesh National Building Construction Code 1993, which is not mandatory and well enforced by the government. The government has taken initiative to make it mandatory. According to newspapers, many developers do not follow the codes, which run the customers in risk. In 2004 Land Development Act for Private Residential Project 2004 has been passed which is mandatory to be complied by the developers. Government amended The Building Construction Act of 1952 in February 2006. The Bangladesh National Building Code (BNBC) of 1993 came into effect on November 15, making mandatory to comply with, in any building construction under The Building Construction Act of 1952 to ensure accountability in the management of overall building construction and safety of the buildings. Developers also have to comply with the Dhaka Metropolitan Building Rules of 2008 to ensure safe building constructions. To protect the interest and ensuring safe investment of the buyers, the Government of Bangladesh has designed the Real Estate Management Ordinance 2008 but it is yet to be passed.
purchaser as a singular numbered male which would include more than one individual and also belonging to the female gender. As per the definition given in section 2 (12) of the Act, the words "real estate" connote any residential, institutional, commercial plot or apartment or flat. Conditions of purchase and sale of real estate: Under the heading wiqj GU q-weqi kZvejx, Section 8(1) of the Act, dealing with sale-purchase, registration, transfer, et cetera, states that a developer shall elaborate in its prospectus or allotment letter (to be issued to an intending purchaser) outstanding features of a property it proposes to develop. Every developer in our country brings out a prospectus (or a brochure) for an upcoming project. The highlights of such prospectus often allure a prospective purchaser to invest his money in the project but, to the latter's detriment, certain unscrupulous developers do not incorporate all such features in their allotment letters, which an unwary purchaser may fail to perceive. The innocent-looking single-lettered word ev (in English, "or") in the section grants latitude to a dishonest developer to disperse allotment letters ignoring or bypassing certain provisions depicted in its prospectus. To protect an intending purchaser and for him to keep away from a situation that may go against him, it should be made obligatory that allotment letters do not add, alter or omit any feature specified in the prospectus. As such, the word ev (or) in the section should be replaced by the word Ges (and). The same word ev (or) also appears in sections 12(1), 13(1), 14(1) and 14(2) of the Act, which deal with discharge by a purchaser of the consideration for his real estate, handing over to him possession, et cetera. To shield a prospective purchaser from the uncanny clutches of a sinister developer, the very same word ev (or) should be substituted by the word Ges (and) in these sections.
Interest rate: Section 14(4) of the Act provides that in the event of a purchaser requiring to clear any of his installments beyond the time limit agreed upon by him with a developer, he may do so by paying interest at the rate of 10% (ten percent), but the law is silent as to whether discharge of such interest would be evwlK (per year) or gvwmK (per month). In the case of an understanding between a developer and a purchaser [proviso to section 15(1) remaining tacit about the quantum of compensation, or payment of damages to be paid by a developer to a purchaser for failure to deliver possession of the latter's real estate within the stipulated date. Section 15(2) of the Act provides that the compensation should be at the rate of 15% (fifteen percent). Here, too, this section does not mention whether payment of interest should be made evwlK (annually) or gvwmK (monthly). To avoid any variance of opinion between a developer and a purchaser with regard to the period for which interest is to be calculated, and to keep an aggrieved party away from suffering any loss, monetary or otherwise, the span of time for such computation should be specifically mentioned in both these sections. Bargaining power: Section 11(3) of the Act, dealing with advantage of a real estate, states that a developer shall comply with the conditions of an Agreement executed by and between a landowner and itself [section 10 (1)]. Such Agreement, compulsorily registrable under the Registration (Amendment) Act, 2004 (Act 25 of 2004), requires a developer to take care of a real estate of a landowner for a minimum of one year after handing over its possession. As nowadays a landowner in Dhaka city often gets from a developer half (or almost half) after a property is
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developed, and as the section precisely provides that 'as per the Agreement entered into by and between the parties', I feel that section 11(3) should be repealed, because it is doubtful whether any honest and truthful developer would agree to insert such a condition in its Agreement with a landowner, as taking care of half (or nearly half) of the developed property for a minimum of one year would entail financial burden on itself. From the perspective of all concerned parties a landowner, a developer and an intending purchaser of a real estate-I strongly feel that the Act should be remodeled I am not sure whether REHAB has formally reacted to any provision of the law, but better late than never. The lawmakers and concerned standing committee of the parliament may think over it to make the law more humane and jurisprudentially sound.
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as Grameen Bank, Proshika, BRAC, and ASA) have extended non-collateralized credit to a small proportion of poor rural households. The performance of all the sources is not up to the mark as a whole. The major financing organizations for housing are the HBFC and the Commercial Banks while financing by other organizations like Delta-BRAC, National Housing and Micro credit lenders are insignificant. Delta Life Insurance Company Ltd. BRAC Green Delta Insurance Company Ltd. International Finance Corporation (IFC) HDFC from India 25 percent 25 percent 20 percent 15 percent 15 percent (Source: Housing Finance in Bangladesh: Improving Access to Housing Finance by Middle and Lower Income Groups by Marja C. Hoek-Smit)
The government has to assess and decide on a number housing financing policies to improve the national housing situation, such as introducing a National Home Lending Program (NHLP); redirecting housing subsidies; increasing lending recovery rates by BHBFC; expanding the primary mortgage market; rehabilitating BHBFC; adopting a legal and regulatory reform program to safeguard lenders; enhancing lending in rural areas through village micro-credit schemes; and improving the climate for attracting finance to the housing sector.
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Certainly the supply of apartments in the residential sector is increasing everyday with high pace. REHAB at the time of its inception had only 11 members who were developers & builders. In 1988 the number grew to 42 and in 2004 it was 200. Currently there are about 450 REHAB members and more than 350 non-members in the market. The huge demand gap has lured a steady growth in the number of real estate developers in the market. Therefore supply also increased at a good rate though it is far below the demand level. In the last 18 years apartments supplied by REHAB members shows a steady growth in supply in Graph -6. In 2006 REHAB members supplied 5,000-6,000 units of apartments and 4,000-5,000 units of plots on an average per year against huge demand of housing. In the last 20 years REHAB members have supplied 50,000 apartments approximately which is much less than the demand in the market. The large unsatisfied demand is partially satisfied by real estate developers who are not the members of REHAB. REHAB could supply only 8,000 against demand of 600,000-800,000 in 2008. Thus the major portion of the demand is supplied by independent developers and the consumers themselves or remains unfulfilled. Thats why it is expected that there is a vast opportunity to sell apartments & plots in market. It presents an attractively growing scenario for the market players. REHAB is expecting to supply 20,000 to 25,000 additional units of apartment from the next year if all environments are favorable. Currently, according to REHAB statistics, in Dhaka city there are 2,240 dwelling units under construction, which includes 49,703 apartments. Outside Dhaka city around 80 projects only are currently under construction, which can supply merely 2,663 apartment units (REHAB, 2004).
5.2
Construction Materials Price of the basic raw material for building development - steel, rod, and cement is in increasing condition though demand is increasing. With the rapid urbanization and increase in real estate business, price and demand for basic building construction materials such as rod, cement and steel are increasing. According to REHAB, there has been average increase 15%-18% in overall prices of building construction materials in 2005 from 2004. REHAB and industry experts estimate amplification of this price trend in the long run. Again from 2003 till now the price of rod has been increased by a devastating 100% approximately. Due to lower level of import, the price for electrical wire has gone up by 50% recently. The price scenario with large jumps for basic raw materials has been shown below for up to 2005.
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Land Price
The following table shows the price of per katha land in the major areas of Dhaka city from 1990 to 2010. Price of land (Taka/Katha) 1990 2000 2010 % change % change Area between 1990 between 2000 and 2000 and 2010 600000 5000000 40000000 733% 700% Baridhara 600000 2200000 25000000 267% 1036% Gulshan 600000 2000000 15000000 233% 650% Banani 600000 1800000 12000000 200% 567% Mahakhali 600000 2200000 20000000 267% 809% Dhanmondi 600000 1800000 15000000 200% 733% Lalmatia 600000 1600000 5500000 167% 244% Azimpur 1200000 7000000 140% Mohammadpur 500000 500000 1500000 10000000 200% Shantinagar 300000 1000000 4500000 233% Shamoli 300000 1000000 7500000 233% Uttara 400000 1000000 7500000 150% Cantonment 400000 800000 4000000 100% Komlapur 400000 700000 3500000 75% Gendaria 30000 800000 3500000 2567% Basabo 300000 800000 3200000 167% kollanpur 200000 700000 4000000 250% Mirpur 200000 600000 3000000 200% Badda 200000 600000 2600000 200% Goran 200000 600000 18000000 200% Demra 1200000 3500000 20000000 192% Motijheel 2500000 15000000 150% Kawran Bazar 1000000 Source: Statistical Year Book, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics 483% 567% 350% 650% 650% 400% 400% 338% 300% 471% 400% 333% 2900% 471% 500%
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Cost Structure
It is estimated that transfer taxes add 30% to the cost of property acquisition and though tax rates are lower compared to other South Asian counterparts, there are no tax exemptions on housing loans. Real estate prices in Dhaka continue to remain high and the house price to income ratio is estimated at over 16 times. The mortgage market currently targets the middle and upper income segments. In addition to the price of the apartments customers need to pay some charges & fees. These costs are added to the total value of the apartments and thus payable combined with the installments by the customers.
Cost of Financing
Bangladeshs capital Dhaka is the prime market for housing finance. Recent estimates indicate that over 70% of housing is rented in Dhaka and there is an annual requirement of over 60,000 new homes per annum. Financial intermediation in the housing sector is not found adequate because of high interest rates and limited sources of funds (Bhattacharya D., 2003). This is true both for the financing of the developers and the purchasers. More than 16 private non-bank financial institutions are there including the privately established Delta Brac Housing Company. Bangladesh is still experiencing a weak financial system that hinders savings and investments, hence economic development. The housing sector which requires huge financing is particularly affected. The ambitious banking system cannot provide wholesale or individual long-term funds at an efficient rate for housing finance to the lower end of the population (Hoek-Smit M. C., 1998). Debt markets are almost non-existent and are dominated by government, eliminating another potential source of housing funds. The trend of advances given by all banks including Nationalized Commercial Banks, Private Commercial Banks, Foreign Commercial Banks, Specialized Banks, and Foreign Commercial Banks. Total advances has essentially grown over the time which also indicates the consistent rising demand for housing, and thus loans for availing those by individuals and institutions. The growth rate for total urban advances over the last seven years has been around 37%. But unfortunately the real estate apartments got very low rate of growth which has been only around 9% that shows once again validates that though housing sector as a whole is getting the nod, the real estate apartment buyers and sellers are still in severe crisis for adequate financing. The state-owned House Building Finance Corporation (HBFC) is burdened with bad loans, and loan disbursement has tended to be low in recent years. Delta-BRAC Housing came into this market as private-NGO collaboration, but their interest rates are as high as 16 percent which is higher than even that of the BHBFC by one per cent. The major financing organizations for housing are the BHBFC and the Commercial Banks while financing by other organizations like Delta-BRAC, National Housing and Micro credit lenders are insignificant. In 2000, total outstanding housing loans were about Tk. 31 billion (USD 515 million), with the public sector dominating a market share of over 80%. The government owned specialized housing finance company; Bangladesh House Building Finance Corporation (BHBFC) is the market leader with a share of 52%. BHBFC, reputed to be not very market savvy compared to existing private sector players is now plagued with high defaults of over 30% and no additional funding from the government (Karnad R. S., 2004). Private sector players like Delta Brac Housing Finance Corporation (DBH), National Housing Finance and Investment Limited (NHFI), Industrial Development Leasing Company (IDLC) and private sector
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commercial banks are fast gaining ground on fresh disbursals. The interest rate structure of leading housing finance corporations as of 2008 has been shown below:
It is estimated that transfer taxes add 30% to the cost of property acquisition and though tax rates are lower compared to other South Asian counterparts, there are no tax exemptions on housing loans. The mortgage market currently targets the middle and upper income segments.
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6.1
Demand analysis
Now in Bangladesh the demand for residential real estate unit is rapidly increasing. The current urbanization rate is 5-6% and 50% people will be living in cities by 2025 according to experts. In the Dhaka city, the urban population density has increased by about 79% from 1991 to 2004. It was 4795 persons/sq.km in 1991 and 8573 persons/sq.km in 2004 (Amin S. A. I. M. U., 2002). Population is increasing rapidly in Bangladesh. Dhaka the mega city is in very faster rate in population increase. This rapidly increasing people need more housing facilities. More and more increase in house rent implies that people would become less interested to stay in rented house and would try or tend to buy own home. This is also increasing the demand of apartments in Bangladesh especially for the middle or upper middle class group of the society. This huge lift up in the urban density & rush of the people to Dhaka city has created great demand of accommodation and housing services. Moreover the real estate developers have started targeting the middle-income groups in the last few years to sell apartments. As the major portion of the society is in this group, the demand is essentially high. According to REHAB there is demand of about 60,000 residential units plus 200,000 units of backlogs and replacements every year. But REHAB members can supply only 8,000 to 10,000 units each year. Now in this intense situation of rapidly growing demand the existing no. of developers cannot satisfy the current demand. This scenario ensures us a higher demand in future as the gap between demand and supply is increasing.
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Urbanization Rate
Statistics & studies show that in 2000-2015, urban growth rate has been expected to be at an average of 3.7% for Bangladesh. India one of the most attractive markets for global real estate is expecting 4.9% growth of urbanization. Moreover where India is estimated to have 36% people living in urban areas by 2015, Bangladesh is expected to have 34%. The scenario is further evident by the per square kilometer population density growth. Thus in South Asia, Bangladesh holds the second position in terms of urbanization rate & proportion of urban population. This scenario tells that, as India is a rapidly growing real estate market for the world, Bangladesh also may attract more real estate investment.
By 2010, Dhaka is estimated to have about 20 million people that show about 55% estimated growth from 2000 (Table-2). With this amount of people Dhaka is estimated to be the 5th largest city in the world by 2015. This fast urbanization needs enough accommodation and housing supply, which is expected to create a huge market for the real estate sector in Bangladesh.
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6.2
Population
Population in Bangladesh is increasing very rapidly. But the country has scarcity in land. To meet the housing demand of growing population, there would need a solution that could provide a solution to housing problem. The large base of population propels real estate business in Bangladesh. For more clarifying we are providing here the size of population in Bangladesh in various years.
Source: Wikipedia
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Land Price
Researches indicate that only 30% population in Dhaka city has occupied already more than 80% of residential areas with human settlements and supportive infrastructure. Economists and real estate experts states it as highly significant and thus land is becoming increasingly inadequate to provide individual housing solutions. Moreover land is quite unavailable in Dhaka at suitable location for individual housing fulfillment. For huge demand and inadequacy of land, price of land is very high in the urban area according to the real estate participants. This makes more people inclined to build and share apartments.
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Standard Error Intercept 1746.087 574.168 0.00515 0.00069 X1 -0.05324 0.11460 X2 -0.15004 0.04729 X3 Estimated Regression Equation:
Coefficients
This equation explains that the house price is independent by BDT 1746.087 which is intercept. If GFC increased by BDT 1 million than house price increased by BDT50 thousands.
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Autocorrelation Problem and Solution We used the STATA software to find the solution of Econometrics problem we are dealing with. Now, applying the STATA command we solve equation to find out the multiple regressions. The relationship of an independent data set with itself is defined as the autocorrelation. It represents an econometric problem. And we will endeavor to solve the problem we are facing. Autocorrelation in the independent variables defects the data set and makes it tough to explain them in relation to dependent variable. Now we will see what happened to our intended variables in terms of autocorrelation. Using the STATA command
We mapped the time period which we will bring up to talk about the correlation in the independent variables. To find out the autocorrelation we will go for Durbin-Watson d-statistic Where d>1 represents no autocorrelation and d<1 narrates the existence of auto correlation. In case of our problem we see that
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Where d>1, so there is no autocorrelation in the data set. It means the independent variables are explaining dependent variable.
Interpretation: We have done the Breusch-Pagan test to find out whether there exists any heteroskedasticity problem. We have done hettest by using every single variable and found errors are not significant as prob>chi2=0.0281 is lower than 5% significant level and so there exists heteroskedasticity problem.
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Interpretation After sorting and plotting the residuals from low to high with regard to variable X1 (GFC) we found that there is relationship between X1 and the residual. Residual increases or decreases depending on the variable X1.
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Interpretation After sorting and plotting the residuals from low to high with regard to variable X2 ( Cement Price) we found that there is relationship between X2 and the residual. Residual increases or decreases depending on the variable X2.
Interpretation After sorting and plotting the residuals from low to high with regard to variable X3 (No of building production) we found that there is relationship between X3 and the residual. Residual increases or decreases depending on the variable X3.
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Solution
Now we are examining the methods by which we can remove the problem of heteroskedasticity. From the SATA, we see that chi2 value of theta=1 is lower than 5% so we will use linear equation.
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Interpretation From the Correlation Matrix statistics we see that some of the relationship among independent variable is significant at 5% significant level. As a result of this we can say that the selected independent variables have multicollinearity problem.
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Chapter 8 Conclusion
Real estate sector is growing and has tendency of future growth. The GDP share and growth of Real estate and construction is growing. This indicates a hopeful future for this sector. Rise in house rent, increasing demand for housing and population, getting easy financing facility, rapid urbanization, inadequacy of land and many other factors are creating huge scope for this sector to grow. As a result aggregate demand for housing and apartments has shown increasing trend and expected to increase. Though inadequate, supply of apartments with the number of real estate developers also have shown rising trend and showing future growth. Regulatory environment has been well helpful for the sector to grow except the recent Real Estate Management Ordinance 2008 which is yet to be passed and very important for protecting buyers interest. Financing market for the real estate sector has become easier and available than ever before. Private sector housing finance is available at competitive interest rate for flexible period but still the amount of loans given is very low compared loans in other sectors. Strengthening the regulatory and supervisory system for the financial sector and improving and expanding debt markets are of particular concern for the housing finance sector. Cost for apartment has increased than before varying across different locations and size along with additional costs imposed with the additional facilities while buying an apartment. In an overall sense, this study finds a very promising and positive tone of growth for the residential real estate sector in Bangladesh, if the sector is given proper attentions and facilities. This has certainly become very immediate to satisfy the increasing housing demand and supply gap of the country.
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Appendix
Year Gross Fixed Capital Cement Price 3265 3652 3825 4015 4475 7460 4630 2380 3788 4190 4020 3827 3875 4070 4662 5363 6226 6200 6435 7650 8542 9125 Volume of Building Production 5325 4352 6538 7594 5691 8957 8565 10197 10536 10985 11564 15346 16529 13564 18325 15624 12875 13634 15985 16956 20356 22456 Average Housing Price (Amount in DT) 1200 1250 1300 1320 1400 1430 1500 1500 1530 1550 1600 1650 1680 1700 3000 4000 5000 5300 5500 6000 5100 5000
1991 113,448,000,000 1992 123,502,000,000 1993 143,787,000,000 1994 159,209,000,000 1995 188,828,000,000 1996 225,803,000,000 1997 247,510,000,000 1998 305,569,000,000 1999 339,949,000,000 2000 370,149,000,000 2001 401,546,000,000 2002 458,383,000,000 2003 517,169,000,000 2004 593,673,000,000 2005 679,182,000,000 2006 775,464,000,000 2007 898,698,000,000 2008 1,050,900,000,000 2009 1,209,420,000,000 2010 1,346,910,000,000 2011 1,480,812,000,000 2012 1,536,582,000,000
Source: REHAB, IDLC, World Bank, A comprehensive Study on Real Estate of Bangladesh.
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References
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Bangladesh bank Limited Bangladesh Statistical Bureau REHAB IDLC Research Report on Cement Sector of BD, IDLC Comprehensive Study On The Real Estate Sector Of Bangladesh, REHAB Building Act 1996 A Relational Study on Service Climate, Supportive Management, Work Effort, Job Satisfaction and Employee Service Quality in the Context of Real Estate Sector of Bangladesh, Safius Sami Alamgir 9. Real Estate Market in Bangladesh Development, Md. Tarikul Islam
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